Ranking New York Knicks' Best Options with No. 4 Pick in 2015 NBA Draft
After weeks of anticipation, the NBA draft lottery gods have spoken: They will not be doing the New York Knicks any favors.
On the heels of the worst season in franchise history, the Knicks stumbled into the lottery desperate for some good fortune, with a 19.9 percent chance at securing the No. 1 overall pick. They ended up in the No. 4 slot instead.
Now they have some decisions to make.
Top prospects Jahlil Okafor, D'Angelo Russell and Karl-Anthony Towns will almost assuredly be off the board by the time New York is on clock. Ahead of the June 25 draft, team president Phil Jackson needs to first figure out whether he's keeping the pick and then whom he'll be selecting if he retains it.
Nothing has been ruled out as of now. As general manager Steve Mills told reporters after the lottery, per NJ.com's Nick Powell: "We have a lot of things that are on the table at this point. We still have [trade] exceptions that we can use between now and the draft, so we're talking to teams about a lot of different things, so we're open to looking at different opportunities to continue to improve our team."
For Mills and Jackson, the trick is capitalizing on the opportunity that helps to expedite their rebuild without compromising the big picture.
Ensuing options will be presented with that in mind while focusing on the most popular scenarios. Roster needs, roster fit, future flexibility and the desire to compete for a playoff spot soon, if not next season, are all factors. The best moves will be those that most cater to all four elements.
In the end, we're asking one to-the-point question: How can the Knicks proceed with their No. 4 pick in a way that allows them to move forward?
5. Trade Pick for Established Talent
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Shipping out first-round draft picks has long been the Knicks' modus operandi.
Look no further than the No. 12 selection they sent to the Orlando Magic last year (via the Denver Nuggets) or the 2016 first-rounder they will send to Toronto.
Exchanging draft picks for established players is the Knicks' thing. And it's time for them to stop.
Though Yahoo Sports' Adrian Wojnarowski says the Knicks will be aggressive in trade negotiations, such action would have made more sense if they had earned a top-two spot. First and second overall picks could potentially help them land a star on their own. The No. 4 slot won't.
Pot sweeteners would need to be included in any deal for a legitimate superstar—buffers the Knicks don't own. Their next best trade assets after Carmelo Anthony are Tim Hardaway Jr., Cleanthony Early and Langston Galloway.
Packaging any one or two, or even all, of them with that No. 4 pick won't get the Knicks much in return—not enough to justify flipping a top-four cornerstone at least.
Even if Jackson is ready to cook up the most ambitious proposal possible, there aren't an infinite number of stars on the chopping block. DeMarcus Cousins' name has bounced around over the last few months, according to Bleacher Report's Howard Back, but again, a top-four pick won't cut the mustard for a player like him.
The Knicks should certainly turn over every rock in the market between now and June 25. Maybe they get lucky.
Forcing the issue is just pointless. A top-four pick doesn't give them enough leverage to acquire the second star they so obviously crave.
4. Draft Emmanuel Mudiay
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If you've slept on Emmanuel Mudiay to this point, wake up.
The point guard is considered something of an unknown after forgoing college to play in China. That an ankle injury limited him to 12 appearances doesn't help.
Still, it's easy to notice his potential when sifting through highlight reels. He gets into the paint at will and, judging by the way his head darts left and right, is always looking to pass first.
Let Mudiay loose in transition, and he's unstoppable. He can finish at the rim while absorbing contact, uses the entire floor in one-on-one situations and will attack in a straight line when he's flanked by a teammate or two, making it easier for them to find an open path to the basket.
Mudiay also projects as someone who can defend both guard positions. At 6'5", he has the size and length to keep pace with wings, as well as the lateral chops to stay in front of other floor generals.
Point guard was, statistically, the Knicks' worst position this past season, according to 82games.com. They employ a genuine talent in Galloway, but they haven't been able to stop opposing point men since 2012 and are no stranger to dual-guard lineups.
Taking a flier on someone garnering John Wall comparisons is never a bad idea either.
Like Wall, Mudiay struggles with his jumper. He drilled 13 of his 38 three-point attempts in China (34.2 percent), according to RealGM, a sampling too small to suggest it'll carry over to or immediately improve at the NBA level.
Anyone the Knicks select needs to be familiar with working off the ball. Anthony, a superstar, commands a ton of touches, and Jackson's triangle offense doesn't call for an attack-first point guard.
Ball-dominant talents like Mudiay—who enjoyed a usage rate north of 29 in China, per RealGM—make for an iffy fit. So while he packs a defensive punch the Knicks need, they should ideally be in the market for someone who's more of a sure thing on offense.
3. Reach for Kristaps Porzingis or Willie Cauley-Stein
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Deprived of the opportunity to snag Towns or Okafor, the Knicks could look elsewhere for a big man.
Further down the draft board, for instance.
Jackson is on record emphasizing the Knicks' need to deepen—or, you know, actually forge—the frontline rotation. And even though No. 4 isn't prime big-man real estate, they could defy mock drafts everywhere by reaching for Kentucky's Willie Cauley-Stein or Latvia's Kristaps Porzingis.
At 7'0", Cauley-Stein is an athletic freak. He saw more playing time than Towns at Kentucky and polices the paint like a two-armed brick wall riding shotgun in Dominic Toretto's 1970 Dodge Charger.
Offense remains his primary drawback. He moves phenomenally off the ball, boding well for his development alongside Anthony, yet he didn't come close to developing a post game in three years at Kentucky. His block rates, while impressive, also fluctuate frequently.
Porzingis, who has skyrocketed up draft boards in recent months, is the more polished offensive player by far. As Bleacher Report's Daniel O'Brien writes:
"He's one of the most fascinating prospects due to his mix of youth, size and offensive upside.
All it takes is one game and a handful of shots to realize he's a special asset. Porzingis owns a streamlined three-point shooting stroke, abundant length and terrific end-to-end mobility. He can finish fast breaks and attack closeouts with his long, agile strides, and he can also alter shots as a rim protector.
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As more of a face-up and spot-up scorer, Porzingis, like Cauley-Stein, needs to hone his post game, and he doesn't block many shots for someone who checks in at 7'1".
Counterpoint to all of this: Porzingis is viewed as a more athletic version of Dirk Nowitzki.
Both of these towers are projects and therefore players the Knicks might not want to roll the dice on this high. Remember, Anthony's presence demands they try to expedite their rebuild.
But in terms of drafting potential stars whose ceilings wouldn't be lowered by Anthony's ball domination, they would do well to at least keep some dice handy.
2. Trade Down
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Instead of reaching on someone like Porzingis or Cauley-Stein, the Knicks can try trading down the board.
Mills admitted this is the least likely scenario, per Powell. And yet, it's the smarter scenario.
Moving down gives the Knicks an opportunity to remain part of this draft while acquiring a more established player and/or butting their way into next year's first round.
Say, for example, the Nuggets are absolutely smitten by Duke's Justise Winslow or Mudiay and worried they won't get their guy at No. 7. The Knicks could try to broker a deal involving Wilson Chandler's expiring contract and the No. 7 pick.
Situations like these are complicated, because the market depends solely on teams' panging desires to rise up the draft board at the expense of future picks and impact players. But if the Knicks aren't wholly sold on surefire top-five, top-seven or even top-10 talents, willingly slipping down is a way for them to have the best of both worlds.
Or something close to it.
1. Draft Justise Winslow
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Assuming the Knicks are most concerned with adding a future franchise anchor who can contribute from the jump, Winslow is the answer.
Duke's serial slasher is all over the place on draft boards. Bleacher Report's Jonathan Wasserman has him falling to No. 7 in his latest mock, suggesting the Knicks could both trade down and perhaps make a play for the 6'6" wing.
But any team that trades up will want Winslow. Bet on that. He's the most dynamic perimeter player in the draft and, as an able small forward, can share the floor with Anthony and Hardaway.
Charlie Widdoes expands on this for NBA.com:
"He wasn't a big-time scorer, but his defensive prowess and offensive versatility were unmistakable during his tournament run, in which he averaged 14.3 points and 9.3 rebounds per game. By the time the Blue Devils cut down the nets in Indianapolis, Winslow had established himself the perhaps the most indispensable player on a team that also featured potential No. 1 pick Jahlil Okafor and star guard Tyus Jones.
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With the Knicks short on above-the-rim springboards and defensive dynamos, Winslow adds a bit of everything they need. Furthermore, over 28 percent of his total offense came from beyond the arc as a freshman, so there's groundwork for him to evolve as a spot-up shooter, coexisting beside Anthony rather than jostling with him for touches.
Drafting another wing does put more pressure on the Knicks to sign a big man and floor general in free agency, the significance of which cannot be ignored.
Entering next season with a possible fate-forming, do-almost-everything star is just more important than the ramifications of keeping the center and point guard positions in flux.
Stats courtesy of Basketball-Reference.com, Sports-Reference.com and NBA.com unless otherwise cited. Draft-pick commitments via RealGM.
Dan Favale covers the NBA for Bleacher Report. Follow him on Twitter: @danfavale.
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