Belmont Stakes 2015: Predictions for Top Projected Horses in New York
The Test of the Champion awaits Bob Baffert's American Pharoah and the rest of a deep field in New York at the 2015 Belmont Stakes.
Like last year with Art Sherman's California Chrome, it's hard to ignore such a serious Triple Crown contender, but at the same time, it makes sense to have doubts thanks to the grueling stretch and contenders with plenty of rest who skipped the Preakness Stakes.
The longest haul of the Triple Crown stretch at 1 ½ miles, the Belmont promises to once again crown a worthy champion.
.jpg?w=256 "Colts Jaguars Football")
While entries aren't official yet, let's take the time to preview the event by looking at some of the top contenders.
Projected Horses and Odds
| American Pharoah | 10-11 |
| Frosted | 5-1 |
| Materiality | 13-2 |
| Carpe Diem | 18-1 |
| Madefromlucky | 22-1 |
| Mubtaahij | 14-1 |
| Divining Rod | 20-1 |
| Keen Ice | 22-1 |
| Tale of Verve | 25-1 |
| Conquest Curlinate | 33-1 |
| Frammento | 50-1 |
Odds courtesy of Odds Shark as of May 20.
Predictions for Top Projected Horses
Materiality
In part, one can thank trainer Todd Pletcher for the rather routine, somewhat boring Preakness Stakes because he elected to pull out each of his contenders in hopes of giving them more rest before the event in New York.
Materiality is one of his top contenders and not one to sleep on after a sixth-place finish at the Kentucky Derby.
Sixth place doesn't sound great, but it's important to keep in mind the huge size of the field. Materiality loves to get out in front and set the pace but lost the positioning battle among a large field and still managed to finish strong.
With one major race under his belt and a much smaller field he should be able to get out in front of, Materiality figures to be a strong contender down the stretch, with only horses with greater closing speed besting him.
Prediction: Materiality finishes third.
Frosted
Trainer Kiaran McLaughlin also elected to keep one of his top contenders out of the Preakness Stakes.
Frosted now heads to New York well rested after a fourth-place finish at Churchill Downs, a performance bettors would be wise to give their undivided attention.
Why? Peep the speed numbers that the Courier-Journal compiled:
There's more—if jockey Joel Rosario once again rests up top as he did at the Kentucky Derby, Frosted is the top Triple Crown spoiler. After all, Rosario ruined California Chrome's shot last year by stealing the Belmont Stakes atop Tonalist.
It's all about the start for Frosted, as he turned on the jets late in the Kentucky Derby and went from 15th to fourth. Such closing speed isn't on display much this year outside of American Pharoah, which should make for a pretty interesting end-of-race duel.
Prediction: Frosted finishes second.
American Pharoah
While American Pharoah's triumph at Pimlico was impressive, the slog through the muddy conditions isn't very indicative of how he can perform in the Belmont.
More impressive was the Kentucky Derby triumph, which was his first real taste of top-tier competition and was among a field almost 20 strong, too. He flirted with the winless No. 17 post position as the lineup altered yet still blazed the field late to win.
What's impressive about Pimlico is American Pharoah's ability to laugh again in the face of post position, going wire-to-wire next to the rail. Oh, and the fact the short turnaround provided his best piece of work to date. Jockey Victor Espinoza even commented on how easy the performance came.
"He did it pretty easy," Espinoza said, per USA Today's Dan Wolken. "I didn't have to ride him that hard. I had to encourage him out of the gate because I wanted to get out of that mess in there. It seemed he was good after the race."
Post position will play a big role again in New York, but against a smaller field over a longer distance, Espinoza will be able to play to his strengths and either set the pace or strike from behind, both obvious options after the first two legs of the Triple Crown.
Either way, it's clear a healthy American Pharoah is the best in the field who can win multiple ways. Look for Espinoza, in his historic third Triple Crown bid, to make a charge late and capture the win.
Prediction: American Pharoah wins Belmont and Triple Crown.
Stats and information via Preakness.com unless otherwise specified.
.jpg?w=480 "Colts Jaguars Football")
