UFC 187: A Full Head-to-Toe Breakdown of Chris Weidman vs. Vitor Belfort
After what's felt like 100 cancellations and postponements, this fight is finally here.
Vitor Belfort has taken almost two years off from kicking people in the face to give his body the necessary recuperation time as it gets a grasp on life after testosterone replacement therapy. Last time we saw him, The Phenom looked all the parts of a frightening man with a pining for gold.
Chris Weidman has taken almost a full year off from defending the highly sought-after middleweight crown to recover from injury after injury. Last time we saw him, he was busy going five rounds with Lyoto Machida in what was considered one of the best fights 2014 had to offer.
The two will meet on Saturday, May 23 at the MGM Grand Garden Arena in Las Vegas as they play second fiddle to the heavier boys at 205 pounds.
Click on as we examine this fight from head to toe before providing you with a prediction on who'll be walking out of UFC 187 with the crown and all the perks that come with it.
Striking
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Chris Weidman has never looked impressive as a striker.
He's never been able to dip in and out of range like Machida. He's never been able to disguise night-ending punches and kicks the way Anderson Silva did during his tenure in the UFC. Even with his stand-up mediocrity, though, Weidman managed to outstrike both of them.
Call the first Silva victory a fluke. Call the second one dumb luck. It would be hard to call either victory anything shy of "impressive," though. He backed Silva up and implemented his game plan.
He did the same against Machida, never allowing the former light heavyweight champion more than an elbow's reach of breathing room for most of the bout.
With that said, he's still not technically a better striker than Belfort.
Weidman's "move forward" won't really work against a guy like Belfort, especially if the latter chooses to take the lead as he's done in all three of his last knockout victories.
And considering The Phenom's only two losses since 2007 have come at the hands of men who took advantage of a timid title challenger, you'd best bet he won't take the chance to not move forward and blitz in this one.
Edge: Belfort
Grappling
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In many ways, Weidman has molded himself into a champion on the strength of his grappling background.
No, he didn't finish Silva by ground-and-pound technical knockout in either fight, but the sheer idea that Weidman could take the fight to the ground—and unravel the mystical aura Silva once had—was enough to complicate things for the former champ.
The same goes for a guy in Machida who's made a name for himself with his ability to pop up from even the most successful takedowns.
Weidman's days of NCAA Division I wrestling at Hofstra University won't shy away from making an appearance against Belfort, either.
With only a 51 percent takedown defense rate in 34 professional fights, Belfort simply won't have enough in him to keep his back off the mat—especially not for five rounds of post-TRT competition.
Edge: Weidman
Submissions
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It's been quite a while since either man made use of his Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt to force an opponent to tap out.
Even the last submission victory either man had—a Belfort rear-naked choke on Anthony Johnson in January 2012—didn't really feel like one of those crafty submissions that makes highlight reels on ESPN (or whatever network actually cares about the sport).
Rumble had already been battered to the point of submission by strikes before Belfort slapped on the choke, so it was a formality, really.
Weidman, on the other hand, has been crafty with most of his locks. Just take a look at how carefully he progressed in his D'arce choke on Tom Lawlor back at UFC 139. Or just know that he once completed a guillotine choke on a dude while they were both standing on their feet—and Weidman didn't even have to make use of his tippy toes.
Also, keep in mind that the champ was doing all of this before he earned his black belt.
Edge: Weidman
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X-Factors
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Belfort: Catching the Champ Early
Even if post-TRT Belfort's cardio equals that of his former self, he still won't have it in him to snatch the crown away from the Serra-Longo fighter.
Belfort is very much a cheetah: He can go really fast but only for a short period of time. There's a reason most track athletes are separated as sprinters and distance runners. Our bodies can only go H.A.M. for so long before they start to hate us.
That's just what Mother Nature intended for most of us, and Belfort is no exception.
It's just a matter of whether or not Belfort can catch the champ in the early goings and make his three- to four-minute burst of cheetah sprinting count.
Weidman: Wearing the Challenger Out for Five Rounds
Belfort holds the UFC record for most first-round finishes with 12. However, his ability to finish a fight drops dramatically after the first five minutes.
That's where Weidman has to take advantage.
He may not have been able to go full speed for five full rounds against Machida at UFC 175, but he's definitely proved the capacity to learn from each of his UFC outings.
Should Weidman manage to take Belfort past two rounds, he should be able to exploit the challenger's weaknesses—much like Jon Jones did in Belfort's last loss.
Prediction
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I'll be the first to say I picked Silva (both times) and Machida in Weidman's title fights.
Too slow. Too inexperienced. Too mediocre a striker. These are all the things I told myself to justify my pick against Weidman.
But there are too many reasons to pick the confident New Yorker this time around.
Look for Weidman to neutralize Belfort's early attacks with the same sort of pressure he's placed on all 12 of his defeated opponents. He'll make use of his grappling skills to tire the older, genuinely unproven—post-TRT and all—challenger for however long he needs in order to finish the fight.
Hopefully, we won't have to wait another year to watch Weidman defend his title against Luke Rockhold. That's a potential fight most of us can't wait to watch.
Prediction: Weidman defeats Belfort by fourth-round submission.
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