2015 Preakness: Using Race Results, Highlights to Predict Belmont Winner

For the second time in as many years, a Triple Crown triumph seems a distinct possibility as the sport of horse racing turns its eyes toward New York for the Belmont Stakes.

Bob Baffert's American Pharoah blazed a sloppy track Saturday in a dominant Preakness Stakes victory, the exact opposite of his come-from-behind victory at the Kentucky Derby a few weeks earlier.

Granted, the event at Pimlico in recent years hasn't lived up to the start and end of the Triple Crown stretch, but horrific weather, a post position along the rail and a field touting the top three finishers from Churchill Downs figured to hurt American Pharoah's chances.

He and jockey Victor Espinoza had other plans, as the results and replay show:

Place	No.	Horse	Jockey	Trainer	Lengths
1	1	American Pharoah	Victor Espinoza	Bob Baffert	----
2	5	Tale of Verve	Joel Rosario	Dallas Stewart	7
3	7	Divining Rod	Javier Castellano	Arnaud Delacour	8
4	2	Dortmund	Martin Garcia	Bob Baffert	15 1/2
5	3	Mr. Z	Corey Nakatani	D. Wayne Lukas	17 1/4
6	4	Danzig Moon	Julien Leparoux	Mark Casse	18 1/4
7	8	Firing Line	Gary Stevens	Simon Callaghan	45
8	6	Bodhisattva	Trevor McCarthy	Jose Corrales	48 1/4

Here's the lesson to take away from the race—American Pharoah can do whatever he wants, when he wants, especially with Espinoza orchestrating the strategy. 

Out of the gate at Pimlico, Espinoza refused to let Mr. Z trap him against the rail and instead blew away the field around the first bend despite the unfavorable conditions. It's a strategy American Pharoah used against weaker fields, but not one perhaps suited for usage against elite competition.

Except it worked, and in historic fashion, too, per ESPN Stats & Info:

While Pimlico is shorter than the race at Churchill Downs, it was still impressive to see American Pharoah pull away down the stretch as others made their final serious pushes for the lead.

Baffert put it best, per Preakness.com: "He's just an amazing horse. Everybody talks about the greatness and he's starting to show it. To me, they have to prove it. Today, the way he did it. He’s just so fast, the way he ran. It was like poetry in motion.”

It's clear from both the Preakness and Kentucky Derby that American Pharoah holds an advantage over other major contenders such as Firing Line and stablemate Dortmund whether the conditions are equal or sloppy. 

Nick Wass/Associated Press

The question becomes whether he can hold his own against a well-rested field in New York. Unlike Pimlico, it won't be as easy to dictate the pace of the race. The Test of the Champion is 1 1/2 miles, horse racing's version of a marathon. For comparison, the Kentucky Derby comes in at 1 1/4 miles and the Preakness at 1 3/16 miles.

In this vein, the Preakness doesn't say a whole lot about American Pharoah's chances in New York. The length is a whole different, well, animal, and rested contenders such as Frosted, Materiality and Carpe Diem, to name a few, offer quite a different set of challenges than the top-heavy Preakness.

What the Preakness result does show, though, is a staggering amount of talent. Perhaps bigger than any other concern for the Triple Crown hopeful heading to New York is the quick turnaround, with about three weeks before the event and the third race in just more than a month.

Brynn Anderson/Associated Press

Yet American Pharoah showed no issues whatsoever on a quick turnaround in Baltimore. In fact, he looked perhaps the best he's ever looked. Cynics will say the rain helped, but it's still a feat to ignore the factor of a quick turnaround sure to hurt most horses.

Clearly, American Pharoah isn't most horses. Post position will play a major role in whether he can take home the Triple Crown, as he cannot afford to fall too far behind the pack. Then again, post position was supposed to be a major issue in Kentucky, where he even flirted with the winless No. 17 hole before winning, then supposed to be an issue in Baltimore next to the rail, to the above results.

Based on the first two legs of the Triple Crown, so long as American Pharoah remains healthy and draws a somewhat decent post position, he'll upend a deep field in New York and become the first Triple Crown winner in 37 years.

Prediction: American Pharoah wins Belmont and Triple Crown.

Stats and information via Preakness.com unless otherwise specified.