American Pharoah and Victor Espinoza: Early Odds, Predictions for Belmont Stakes

The third time is the charm, right? 

Standout jockey Victor Espinoza can only hope as much after Saturday's triumph at the Preakness Stakes atop American Pharoah, giving him a record-breaking third stab at the prestigious Triple Crown award, which hasn't occurred in 37 years.

Saturday, Espinoza orchestrated the perfect race out of the No. 1 post position closest to the rail, taking an early lead and fending off Mr. Z for the first half of the race before turning it on down the stretch and distancing himself from the field just as others looked to be turning it up.

Here's a look at the race, followed by the full order of results:

Place	No.	Horse	Jockey	Trainer	Lengths
1	1	American Pharoah	Victor Espinoza	Bob Baffert	----
2	5	Tale of Verve	Joel Rosario	Dallas Stewart	7
3	7	Divining Rod	Javier Castellano	Arnaud Delacour	8
4	2	Dortmund	Martin Garcia	Bob Baffert	15 1/2
5	3	Mr. Z	Corey Nakatani	D. Wayne Lukas	17 1/4
6	4	Danzig Moon	Julien Leparoux	Mark Casse	18 1/4
7	8	Firing Line	Gary Stevens	Simon Callaghan	45
8	6	Bodhisattva	Trevor McCarthy	Jose Corrales	48 1/4

Sloppy conditions couldn't stop the dynamic duo, just as a poor starting position and one of the deepest fields in quite a long time didn't stop them at Churchill Downs when they breezed to the Kentucky Derby triumph.

Kathryn Schulz of The New Yorker captured Espinoza's thoughts on Saturday's easy race:

Owner Ahmed Zayat got in on the action, too.

"I always told everybody American Pharoah would show up today," per Richard Rosenblatt of The Associated Press. "Indeed he did. He is the real deal."

Call it just the latest example of the duo trumping the odds, as they were just the third Preakness favorite to start from the rail since 1950, and no horse had won from that position since 1994.

Taking the above into account, it's not hard to imagine Espinoza can accomplish what he couldn't atop California Chrome last year.

Still, as things transition to the Belmont Stakes and the globe yearns for another chance at a Triple Crown winner, it's necessary to understand the event in New York is a different animal. 

Brynn Anderson/Associated Press

It's called The Test of the Champion for a reason, coming in at 1 1/2 miles compared to the 1 1/4-mile length of the Kentucky Derby and 1 3/16-mile length of the Preakness Stakes. It's also the third race in a little more than a month and change against a field sure to feature contenders and well-rested horses.

Names such as Firing Line and Dortmund, the latter American Pharoah's stablemate and both strong contenders in the last two legs, figure to attend. So too does top trainer Todd Pletcher and a number of horses, all of which skipped Preakness.

To name a few, Materiality, Frosted, Carpe Diem and Mubtaahij all figure to put up strong fights in New York after watching the Preakness from the sidelines. Here's how the early odds figure to shape up based on some potential names who figure to compete in New York:

Horse	Odds
American Pharoah	9-2
Dortmund	35-1
Firing Line	20-1
Frosted	14-1
Materiality	17-4
Carpe Diem	20-1
Mubtaahij	25-1

Mubtaahij, the son of Dubawi, isn't one to ignore after a promising showing at Churchill Downs. Neither is Frosted, the Kiaran McLaughlin-trained horse who already has a victory under his belt on Belmont's dirt track.

As observer Chris Fallica points out, the size of the field in New York may determine quite a lot for American Pharoah thanks to a large sample size:

USA Today Sports takes an extensive look at recent misses:

With the slow speed of the first two legs of the Triple Crown, a burner such as Materiality has the speed to turn it on down the stretch of the long haul. Then again, though, Espinoza has plenty of experience to counteract such a move, and American Pharoah just showed he touts wire-to-wire speed without much in the way of slowdown.

The biggest thing for American Pharoah is health. A few of the recent Triple Crown contenders struggled with their fitness close to the final leg.

Presuming American Pharoah can stay healthy, though, it's tough to ignore the level of talent and experience between the best duo in the sport. More than anything, Espinoza's continued excellence up top puts Baffert's top horse at a serious advantage, even against well-rested opposition.

Look for American Pharoah to pull off the unthinkable under such guidance and with the talent to again best a competitive field.

Stats and information via Preakness.com unless otherwise specified.