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May 14, 2015; Baltimore, MD, USA; Kentucky Derby winner American Pharoah runs on the track during a workout for the 140th Preakness Stakes at Pimlico Race Course. Mandatory Credit: Geoff Burke-USA TODAY Sports
May 14, 2015; Baltimore, MD, USA; Kentucky Derby winner American Pharoah runs on the track during a workout for the 140th Preakness Stakes at Pimlico Race Course. Mandatory Credit: Geoff Burke-USA TODAY SportsGeoff Burke-USA TODAY Sports

Preakness Field 2015: Final Vegas Odds and Projections for Entry List

Sean ODonnellMay 16, 2015

We're finally just hours away from the 2015 Preakness Stakes, and so much has happened in the days leading up to the run for the Triple Crown's middle jewel.

Earlier in the week, famed trainer Todd Pletcher surprisingly opted to pull all four of his horses—Materiality, Carpe Diem, Competitive Edge and Stanford—from the Preakness and look ahead to the Belmont Stakes instead. That decision reduced the field at Pimlico drastically, as we were left with just eight contenders.

Wednesday's post-position draw further shook things up, as American Pharoah drew the dreaded No. 1 gate—a position that has only yielded one winner (Tabasco Cat in 1994) since 1961, according to Preakness.com. Interestingly enough, trainer Bob Baffert's other colt, Dortmund, drew the No. 2 gate and will start alongside his stablemate.

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Baffert shared his thoughts on the unlucky draw during an interview with Preakness.com:

"

I don't like the inside. I never like the one-hole. Sometimes they don't break as well. [American Pharoah has] drawn the one-hole before at Santa Anita. When I was watching the draw and all these numbers were coming up, I go, 'This is not looking good.' It's the luck of draw. We're there. I don't love it, but they'll be easy to watch.

"

Despite those unfortunate circumstances, Pharoah remains the odds-on favorite for the race. But will he be able to overcome those obstacles to keep his Triple Crown hopes alive? As we anxiously await the Preakness to commence, let's take a final look at the Vegas odds and predict the race's ultimate outcome.

Preakness Lineup and Odds

1American Pharoah10-13Bob BaffertVictor Espinoza
2Dortmund9-2Bob BaffertMartin Garcia
3Mr. Z33-1D. Wayne LukasCorey Nakatani
4Danzig Moon20-1Mark CasseJulien Leparoux
5Tale of Verve50-1Dallas StewartJoel Rosario
6Bodhisattva40-1Jose CorralesTrevor McCarthy
7Divining Rod22-1Arnaud DelacourJavier Castellano
8Firing Line4-1Simon CallaghanGary Stevens

All Preakness odds courtesy of Odds Shark.

Preakness Predictions

WinAmerican Pharoah
PlaceFiring Line
ShowDortmund
FourthDivining Rod

This finishing order should look rather familiar. Just like the Kentucky Derby's end result, American Pharoah, Firing Line and Dortmund will win, place and show, respectively.

Yes, Pharoah will have his work cut out starting from the No. 1 position, but he's built perfectly to succeed from that location. Take a look back at his performance in the Kentucky Derby to see why:

There's a reason the first name you hear in the onset of the Derby is Pharoah's. He broke beautifully from the gate and quickly accelerated past the traffic to settle into third position. That's quite impressive considering the substantial amount of ground he had to make up from the No. 16 post.

If Pharoah can start in a similar fashion in the Preakness, he'll ride the rail past the pack and will likely reach the front early, setting the race's pace. Due to his extremely good stamina and finishing ability, there's no reason to think another competitor will be able to pass him at any point.

May 2, 2015; Louisville, KY, USA; Victor Espinoza aboard American Pharoah (18), Gary L Stevens aboard Firing Line (10) and Martin Garcia aboard Dortmund go down the front stretch during the 141st Kentucky Derby at Churchill Downs. Mandatory Credit: Brian

Firing Line will test Pharoah. The colt was very impressive in the Derby, displaying good pace and nice finishing ability. He'll likely be in the mix alongside Pharoah down the final stretch, and trainer Simon Callaghan thinks the shorter Preakness will give his colt the advantage.

Here's what he had to say during an interview with Preakness.com: "I like the way our horse is training. Everything’s gone perfectly. I think that the race being a 1/16 of a mile shorter could potentially help us. We've got a good post and they have probably a tougher post, so I think there are a few factors that can help us turn the tables."

That certainly isn't out of the question, but Pharoah proved to be the better closer in the Derby, and that should be expected to remain the same at Pimlico.

Dortmund will once again finish third. He has the pace to keep up with Pharoah and Firing Line early, but despite his fine run in the Kentucky Derby, be proved incapable of finishing as strong as those top contenders. While he may finish closer to the front in the 1 3/16-mile Preakness, he doesn't have the closing speed to pass Pharoah and Firing Line.

Divining Rod rounds out the top four. This Triple Crown newcomer was phenomenal in April's Coolmore Lexington Stakes, winning by three lengths. However, he's been inconsistent against better competition, finishing third behind Carpe Diem and Ami's Flatter in the Tampa Bay Derby. The colt also doesn't have experience running a race longer than 1 1/16 miles. That sounds like a fourth-place horse.

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