Preakness Odds 2015: Last-Minute Updates and Picks
A field of eight will line up Saturday afternoon in the $1.5 million Preakness Stakes (G1) at Pimlico Race Course, with most of the attention going to one horse.
American Pharoah comes to Baltimore with his Triple Crown hopes still alive, as the Kentucky Derby (G1) winner will go off as the betting favorite when the gates spring open at 6:18 p.m. ET.
A victory would send the colt to New York for the Belmont Stakes (G1) and the chance to make history, seeking to become the first Triple Crown winner since Affirmed in 1978.
With the race fast approaching, let's look at a few last-minute updates and predictions on the outcome.
Mother Nature Leaves Us Guessing
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Earlier this week, the weather forecast was calling for a 90 percent chance of rain Saturday, but Mother Nature may come through as the chance of inclement weather is decreasing.
The latest weather forecast calls for early-morning showers and then scattered thunderstorms in the afternoon, with a 50 percent chance of rain.
If showers do come early, the Pimlico race track could still be fast by post time. The racing surface drains and dries out quickly, so the chance of a sloppy or muddy track seems unlikely.
Of the top three contenders in the race, only favorite American Pharoah has experience over an off-track. The colt won the Rebel (G2) at Oaklawn Park in the slop off a five-and-a-half-month layoff back in March.
Early Betting Points Toward American Pharoah
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The early money Friday came in on the favorite American Pharoah, who saw his morning-line odds of 4-5 go down to 3-5 as of 7 p.m. ET.
According to the Maryland Jockey Club, there was $39,754 wagered in the on-track win pool for the race. It is a miniscule amount, as millions will be wagered before post time.
Firing Line dropped to 5-2 from his 4-1 morning line, and Dortmund was a surprising 8-1 in early wagering.
In the latest Preakness betting odds at Odds Shark, American Pharoah was listed at 10-13, with Dortmund at 9-2 and Firing Line at 4-1.
“It’s amazing. The last two weeks have just been so surreal,” said Justin Zayat, racing manager for Zayat Stables, via the Maryland Jockey Club. “It’s been like a dream. Everything has been going by so quickly. It’s been hectic, but to be here with American Pharoah, I wouldn’t trade places with anyone.”
Preakness odds after Friday's wagering at Pimlico (via the Maryland Jockey Club):
- American Pharoah: 3-5
- Dortmund: 8-1
- Mr. Z: 14-1
- Danzig Moon: 13-1
- Tale of Verve: 25-1
- Bodhisattva: 19-1
- Divining Rod: 17-1
- Firing Line: 5-2
Mr. Z Is Early Steam Horse
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Is it possible Hall of Fame trainer D. Wayne Lukas could win his seventh Preakness with Mr. Z? There was not much money bet in advanced wagering Friday, but Mr. Z's price dropped from his 20-1 morning line down to 14-1.
The colt makes his first start for Calumet Farm, which purchased the colt privately this week. He has started 13 times but has managed just one win. However, the colt has landed in the money in eight stakes races.
His current betting odds at Odds Shark are 33-1, and the 14-1 price in the parimutuel pool is sure to drift upward Saturday afternoon.
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Baffert Key to Results
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While it is tough for many horseplayers to separate the top three—American Pharoah, Firing Line and Dortmund, the top three finishers of the Kentucky Derby—there is no denying a trainer could make the difference.
Hall of Famer Bob Baffert has won the Preakness Stakes five times and knows how to bring Derby horses back on two weeks' rest and not regress. His three previous Derby winners got the job done in Baltimore, as well as Point Given in 2001 and Lookin At Lucky in 2010—both lost as major contenders in the Derby.
While Firing Line trainer Simon Callaghan has done a remarkable job with his colt, Baffert certainly has the edge in experience in Triple Crown races.
Longshots with Chance to Land in Money
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Danzig Moon checked in fifth in the Kentucky Derby, beaten 6 ½ lengths, but had a less-than-stellar trip.
The colt exchanged a couple of bumps with Bolo and had to steady, and then he could not make up any ground late in the stretch. A cleaner trip would put him closer, and he is in a sharp barn with Canada's leading trainer Mark Casse.
Divining Rod did not make it into the Derby field and instead headed to Keeneland, where he won the Coolmore Lexington (G3). He earned a 98 Beyer Speed Figure, which is only three points behind Dortmund's Derby number of 101.
Another plus for the colt is picking up jockey Javier Castellano, who has won the Eclipse Award for top jockey the past two years. His current odds at Odds Shark of 22-1 look fair enough to give him a small look.
Prediction for Show
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There is no doubt that Firing Line is as tough as nails. He has started six times and has landed in the exacta each time but had to settle for the runner-up spot on four occasions.
Twice, he came out on the wrong end of photos to Dortmund and last out could not go with American Pharoah.
“He runs equally as well on every racetrack," said his trainer, Simon Callaghan, via the Maryland Jockey Club. I think it’s because he’s such an athlete. He’s a good-moving, fluent-moving horse. He’s such an athletic horse.”
The colt figures to be right in the mix midstretch, but I have a tough time making a case for passing both Baffert horses for the win. He likely will have to settle for a minor share again.
Prediction for Place
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It looks as if Dortmund is going to be the third choice in the betting, and I will lean toward him turning the tables on Firing Line, the Derby runner-up. The Baffert trainee got the best of Firing Line twice before, and the shorter distance may suit him.
Baffert has won the second jewel of the Triple Crown five times, and this colt's sire Big Brown won the Preakness, as well.
The strapping colt will be easy to spot as he is the biggest in the field, and he looks to be a serious threat to his stablemate. But he will more likely to have to settle for the runner-up spot.
Prediction for Win
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American Pharoah is going to the be the short-priced betting favorite, but with Baffert calling the shots, he looks likely to keep his Triple Crown bid alive.
Baffert has brought three Kentucky Derby winners to Baltimore—Silver Charm (1997), Real Quiet (1998) and War Emblem (2002) and left with the Black-Eyed Susans draped around his horse each time. He knows how to bring a horse back on two weeks' rest, and the colt has shown no signs that his hard-fought victory in the Derby took anything out of him.
It looks as if we are heading to the Big Apple in three weeks with a legitimate shot of ending the Triple Crown drought.
Morning line odds via Equibase.
Betting odds via Maryland Jockey Club and Odds Shark.
Follow Michael on Twitter @turfnsport
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