Preakness Entries 2015: Final Odds and Predictions for Entire Field
"Take it one step at a time" is a sports cliche that is used far too often, but it certainly applies at the 2015 Preakness Stakes.
The horse racing world will hold its collective breath in anticipation of a potential Triple Crown from Kentucky Derby winner American Pharoah, but the only way that can happen is with a victory at Pimlico Race Course first.
It is the second (and often overlooked) step on the way to a Triple Crown, and American Pharoah hopes to follow in California Chrome’s footsteps from a year ago and parlay a win at Churchill Downs into a victory at the Preakness. He even has the same jockey in Victor Espinoza leading the way.
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Here is a look at the odds for American Pharoah and the rest of the small Preakness field, per Odds Shark (as of Friday at 7 p.m. ET).
| 1 | American Pharoah | 10-13 | Bob Baffert | Victor Espinoza |
| 2 | Dortmund | 17-4 | Bob Baffert | Martin Garcia |
| 3 | Mr. Z | 33-1 | D. Wayne Lukas | Corey Nakatani |
| 4 | Danzig Moon | 20-1 | Mark Casse | Julien Leparoux |
| 5 | Tale of Verve | 50-1 | Dallas Stewart | Joel Rosario |
| 6 | Bodhisattva | 50-1 | Jose Corrales | Trevor McCarthy |
| 7 | Divining Rod | 20-1 | Arnaud Delacour | Javier Castellano |
| 8 | Firing Line | 17-4 | Simon Callaghan | Gary Stevens |
Predicted Finishing Order: No. 1. American Pharoah, No. 2. Firing Line and No. 3. Dortmund
It may not be going out on much of a limb to pick the three favorites to finish in the top three, but this year’s Preakness is all about the top-three finishers at the Kentucky Derby.
After all, challengers such as Carpe Diem, Materiality and Competitive Edge will not be in the small field, and there is a very real chance we see the same top-three finishers at Pimlico as we did at Churchill Downs.
Pat Forde of Yahoo Sports suggested as much:
If anyone knows how to turn a Kentucky Derby win into a triumph at the Preakness, it is American Pharoah's trainer, Bob Baffert. Baffert has taken three Derby winners to Pimlico in his career, and all three times that horse emerged victoriously. In all, Baffert has five Preakness titles on his resume.
He will win his sixth Saturday with American Pharoah.
American Pharoah has plenty of momentum on his side after five straight victories, and the performance at the Derby proved he can win a race in different ways. He dominated the majority of his first four wins, but needed to come from behind on the outside at Churchill Downs to overtake Dortmund and Firing Line.
The finishing kick was critical, and he may just have to do it again Saturday.
It would benefit American Pharoah to jump out to an initial lead from the No. 1 post so he doesn't get trapped against the rail or fall too far behind Dortmund from the No. 2 post. Espinoza certainly understands that and is the perfect jockey to lead the favorite against the rest of the field Saturday—he won the first two legs of the Triple Crown in 2002 with War Emblem and last year with California Chrome.
He has been in this position before and thrived, and Espinoza will not let the spotlight get to him Saturday. Look for him to maneuver the field's fastest horse to an early lead from the inside and ride that to victory.
Dortmund was undefeated before American Pharoah knocked him off at the Kentucky Derby, but the powerful horse will suffer another defeat Saturday.
One thing working in Dortmund's favor is the fact that he set the early pace at Churchill Downs, but ultimately lost steam when Firing Line and then American Pharoah pushed past him in the closing stretch. The Preakness is slightly shorter than the 1 1/4-mile Kentucky Derby, so if Dortmund gets out to that early lead again, he could have enough to carry it to the finish line this time.
However, the prediction here is that he will once again finish in third place behind American Pharoah and Firing Line. The fact that American Pharoah and Dortmund are next to each other near the rail makes the start incredibly important, and the veteran Espinoza will respond accordingly and push American Pharoah early.
American Pharoah will establish inside position and the pace from the No. 1 gate, which will leave Dortmund trapped in traffic too far inside. He will have nowhere to go after that and will settle for a late charge and third place.
Firing Line will once again finish in second place behind American Pharoah. While both American Pharoah and Dortmund battle for inside positioning, Firing Line will have a relatively clean break from the outside post, which will allow him to finish ahead of whichever horse falls behind early on the inside.
However, Firing Line still has to cover more ground from the outside than the other contenders, which means he will ultimately fall short of American Pharoah.
Firing Line trainer Simon Callaghan doesn't think that will be the case, though, per Forde: "He's got a very good cruising speed during his races, and I think that should lend itself to a slight cutback in distance. I think this could be an absolutely perfect distance for him."
Firing Line has finished in first or second place in every one of his career races and counts a handful of heartbreaking defeats to his resume. No loss was more heartbreaking than the Kentucky Derby after he overcame Dortmund’s initial lead just to watch American Pharoah power to the finish line from the outside.
This time, he will watch American Pharoah power to the finish line from the inside.
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