Preakness 2015 Predictions: Final Picks on Race-Day Odds

Between one resounding favorite, two dangerous threats and five dark-horse candidates, bettors enter race day at the 2015 Preakness Stakes with options aplenty to properly cash in.

American Pharoah figured to face a much smaller field at Pimlico Race Course than in the Kentucky Derby, but late withdrawals cut it to just eight horses for Saturday's race. That development hardly overshadowed Wednesday's post-positions draw, which slotted the Triple Crown hopeful in the dreaded No. 1 post alongside Dortmund.

With Firing Line—fresh off a second-place finish at Churchill Downs—manning the outside gate and Dortmund able to potentially box in American Pharoah on the rail, could an upset be in the works? Let's take a closer look at how the race will unfold and make both a favorite and a sleeper pick.

2015 Preakness Stakes Field and Odds

Post Position	Horse	Odds	Trainer	Jockey
1	American Pharoah	10-13	Bob Baffert	Victor Espinoza
2	Dortmund	17-4	Bob Baffert	Martin Garcia
3	Mr. Z	33-1	D. Wayne Lukas	Corey Nakatani
4	Danzig Moon	20-1	Mark Casse	Julien Leparoux
5	Tale of Verve	50-1	Dallas Stewart	Joel Rosario
6	Bodhisattva	50-1	Jose Corrales	Trevor McCarthy
7	Divining Rod	20-1	Arnaud Delacour	Javier Castellano
8	Firing Line	17-4	Simon Callaghan	Gary Stevens

Odds courtesy of Odds Shark, last updated May 15.

The Pick: American Pharoah (10-13)

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Two weeks ago at Churchill Downs, Dortmund ran just the race that was needed to keep American Pharoah out of his element. He started by setting the pace, maintained the lead and got a jump start on the final stretch. 

Firing Line joined the party, making up for Dortmund's late fading while American Pharoah bounced too far outside. It didn't matter—he simply proved to have an extra gear that his competition didn't have in them, and it kicked in with plenty of time to spare.

If it's anyone's race down the stretch Saturday, he's proven that even the best horses among the field can't keep up. But will his start on the rail prevent him from staying nearby?

Zayat Stables manager Justin Zayat's account to the New York Post sheds light on that, assuring that it would be a first if American Pharoah sputtered early:

"

Pharoah has won on the rail before. He won the Del Mar Futurity last September, his first Grade 1. At least, he’s overcome that one time.

The horse has natural speed out of the gate and we’re hoping he doesn’t break poorly for the first time in his career. He’s usually a very good gate horse, and he breaks very cleanly.

"

The break is what should worry American Pharoah's camp—and his bettors—the most, especially with the bulky Dortmund on his right. A poor start will cause him to get dirt kicked in his face and should restrict jockey Victor Espinoza's ability to find a route to the outside.

But since it won't be American Pharoah's first time starting on the rail, he should prove able to overcome it and stay in position to strike late. And we've seen before what he does in those situations.

The Dark Horse: Danzig Moon (20-1)

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With the three favorites—American Pharoah, Dortmund and Firing Line—assuming so much of the betting action, there is huge coin to be had for slotting a dark horse for a place or show finish. At 20-1 to win the race, Danzig Moon is the right one to roll the dice on.

He never seriously threatened the lead late in the Derby, but Danzig Moon undeniably made his presence felt with a strong fifth-place finish. Just 6 1/2 lengths off American Pharoah's winning pace, a place-show finish would have been in order had Danzig Moon not gotten squeezed in very early.

That performance wasn't a fluke, as he proved himself prior to that at the Blue Grass Stakes with a valiant runner-up finish to Carpe Diem—who he bested pretty convincingly a month later at the Derby.

There's always been potential in Danzig Moon, but assistant trainer Norman Casse told Lexington Herald-Leader's Alicia Wincze Hughes he has seen a lot of improvement stemming from the Derby:

"

Watching the Derby and seeing how much early speed he has, I think shows you that he's more aggressive. He's figured out what he's going to do and I think that's what is going to make him a better racehorse.

"

While it's expected that American Pharoah and either Firing Line or Dortmund will be dueling down the stretch, Danzig Moon could be right there with them if he avoids the early trouble he faced at Churchill Downs.