
Preakness 2015 Contenders: Updated Race-Day Outlook for Top Favorites
Race day has arrived for the 2015 Preakness Stakes. American Pharoah will take to the Pimlico Race Course track with a chance to move within one win of an elusive Triple Crown. Seven other horses will try to extend the drought to 38 years.
The "Run for the Black-Eyed Susans" is always an intriguing test for the Kentucky Derby champion. Coming back on just two weeks of rest after the grueling battle at Churchill Downs is a challenge even for the most talented Derby winners.
If Pharoah succeeds, the Triple Crown hype will build steadily for three weeks leading up to the Belmont Stakes. Let's check out all of the key details for watching the second leg of the annual journey before taking a closer look at the top contenders.
Viewing Information
Where: Pimlico Race Course in Baltimore
When: Saturday, May 16 at 6:18 p.m. ET
Watch: NBC
Live Stream: NBC Sports Live Extra
2015 Preakness Field
| 1 | American Pharoah | Bob Baffert | Victor Espinoza | 10-13 |
| 2 | Dortmund | Bob Baffert | Martin Garcia | 17-4 |
| 3 | Mr. Z | D. Wayne Lukas | Corey Nakatani | 33-1 |
| 4 | Danzig Moon | Mark Casse | Julien Leparoux | 20-1 |
| 5 | Tale of Verve | Dallas Stewart | Joel Rosario | 50-1 |
| 6 | Bodhisattva | Jose Corrales | Trevor McCarthy | 50-1 |
| 7 | Divining Rod | Arnaud Delacour | Javier Castellano | 20-1 |
| 8 | Firing Line | Simon Callaghan | Gary Stevens | 17-4 |
Outlook for Top Horses
American Pharoah
Pharoah showed why he's a special talent down the stretch of the Kentucky Derby. After being pushed wide around the turns, he still had enough left in the tank to showcase a better finishing kick than either Firing Line or Dortmund. It was a serious test of his high-end ability, and he passed.
Breaking from the inside post should take away concerns about going too wide, but it also puts more pressure on jockey Victor Espinoza to get a clean break. Peter Schmuck of the Baltimore Sun passed along comments from trainer Bob Baffert about the draw.
"At least we're here, going for the second leg [of the Triple Crown], and that's more important," Baffert said. "If they had told me, 'Look it, if you win the Kentucky Derby, we're going to have to stick you in the one hole at Pimlico,' I'd have said, 'I'll take that all day long.'"
In other words, it's hard to complain with a Derby win already under your belt. It also helps that the field is much smaller than two weeks ago, so the mad dash toward the rail won't be quite as intense. Certainly, it's something Espinoza can navigate.
Pharoah is the best horse in the race. There are some uncertainties when it comes to the post position or quick turnaround, but not enough to ignore his recent success. Look for him to head to the Belmont Stakes with a chance to end the Triple Crown drought.
Prediction: Winner
Dortmund
Dortmund was right with American Pharoah and Firing Line heading into the stretch run before falling off the pace. The best news for his chances is that he's a physically imposing horse, which bodes well for the likelihood of him bouncing back in good form despite the short break between races.
It's also fair to say he didn't run his best race two weeks ago. His trip in the Santa Anita Derby back in April was far more complete. As a result, NYRA handicapper David Aragona believes he provides the value in Saturday's race:
One thing to watch will be how jockey Martin Garcia handles the start. Breaking from next to Pharoah allows him to choose between trying to outrace the favorite to the rail or sitting a bit off the pace to see if he can save some of the horse's energy for the latter stages.
Expect to see a better performance from Dortmund in the second leg of the Triple Crown. The question is whether even that will be enough to upset Pharoah if he's at his best, too. Based on the Derby, the answer is probably not quite.
Prediction: Second
Firing Line
Firing Line finished second to Dortmund in both the Los Alamitos Futurity and Robert B. Lewis Stakes. He finally bettered his rival in the Kentucky Derby, but the overall resumes still suggest Dortmund is the bigger threat to American Pharoah on Saturday.
That's not to say Firing Line can't win the race. He's good enough to get right back in the mix and possibly steal the victory if the other top two struggle with the turnaround. But TVG notes it's been a long time since a second-place Derby finisher won the Preakness:
The one piece of good news for jockey Gary Stevens is that he's breaking from the outside. That keeps him away from Pharoah and Dortmund. It should ensure he's able to get a good read on the early pace and adjust his trip accordingly.
All told, it's good to see him brought back for the Preakness. A lot of connections choose to skip the middle leg if they don't win the first. But his presence adds to the drama at Pimlico. Everything would have to fall perfectly for him to win, though.
Prediction: Fourth


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