
NBA Draft Lottery 2015: Event Preview and Odds of Landing Top Selection
The landscape of the NBA changes Tuesday, May 19, at the 2015 NBA draft lottery.
There, the draft's top 14 picks align in order after a whirlwind of ping pong balls bounce every which way, the 31st time the league will use a lottery to decide the fortunes of rebuilding franchises.
While it's fair to point out there's no LeBron James or Tim Duncan in the class, there's still much at stake. Those guys are anomalies, not the norm, and Karl-Anthony Towns, Jahlil Okafor, Emmanuel Mudiay and D'Angelo Russell are superb foundation pieces future contenders can build around.
In today's NBA, it's something worth fighting for. Here's a look at the odds:
| Minnesota Timberwolves | 25 percent |
| New York Knicks | 19.9 percent |
| Philadelphia 76ers | 15.6 percent |
| Los Angeles Lakers | 11.9 percent |
| Orlando Magic | 8.8 percent |
| Sacramento Kings | 6.3 percent |
| Denver Nuggets | 4.3 percent |
| Detroit Pistons | 2.8 percent |
| Charlotte Hornets | 1.7 percent |
| Miami Heat | 1.1 percent |
| Indiana Pacers | 0.8 percent |
| Utah Jazz | 0.7 percent |
| Phoenix Suns | 0.6 percent |
| Oklahoma City Thunder | 0.5 percent |
One lucky bounce for any of the above names and the team is on its way to contending for the postseason.
But how does it work?
NBA.com provides a breakdown:
"In short, four out of 14 ping-pong balls (numbered 1 through 14) will be selected at random out of a lottery machine. The 1,001 possible combinations will have previously been divided between the 14 teams based on regular season records. The team assigned to the first combination that comes out wins the rights to the No. 1 overall selection position.
The four balls from that first selection are then put back into the drum, and the second set of four balls is drawn. And then the same for the third pick.
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Complicated, right? As for the broadcast itself, the NBA will once again pull out all the stops in an effort to make it a must-see affair, as it has in past years.
The main feature is once again the fine folks who will represent each team, with this year highlighted by current players such as Russell Westbrook and Nerlens Noel. Jeff Zillgitt of USA Today provides a look at the full list:
Perhaps the most interesting storyline pertains to the trend of old juggernauts actually adhering to a traditional rebuilding plan.
Look at New York Knicks president Phil Jackson, who seems set to clutch a top-five pick to pair with an under-construction roster featuring a superstar in Carmelo Anthony and young pieces such as Shane Larkin and Tim Hardaway Jr.
The same approach applies to the Los Angeles Lakers. Last year, general manager Mitch Kupchak used a top-five selection on Kentucky forward Julius Randle, and once again seems ready to make a major move in the same range this year.
Of course, Kupchak is human, too, and worries about how the ping pong balls could bounce.
“It’s completely out of our control. But I’m somewhat of a worry-wart,” Kupchak said, per Mark Medina of the Los Angeles Daily News. “I know our percentage is very high that we end up with a top-five pick, but I have to prepare for if we don’t get it. We’ll be prepared either way.”
It seems even the historically dominant franchises are getting with the program. The new way of doing things starts with grabbing franchise foundations via high selections, then luring superstar talent to town in free agency, something both the Knicks and Lakers want to do this summer and the next.
There are outliers, of course. The Philadelphia 76ers can't seem to get enough first-round picks. In hindsight, the wild approach might just work, too, bucking the instant-gratification ways of the league. For now, the 76ers' presence in the lottery once again ensures quite an entertaining bit of television.
Perhaps the most intriguing team of all, though, is the one with the best odds to take home the top selection. The Minnesota Timberwolves already feature a blossoming young core with Ricky Rubio, Zach LaVine and Andrew Wiggins, so the team's ability to add a Towns or Okafor down low would perhaps put the team over the top as it continues to grow and mature.
With the possibilities endless and the league in a state of flux as to how teams approach building a contender, it's no wonder the popularity of the lottery continues to grow by the year.
The league takes the next step on Tuesday at 5:30 p.m., and fans won't want to miss it.
Stats and info courtesy of ESPN.com unless otherwise specified.





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