Preakness Picks 2015: Examining Latest Vegas Predictions and Odds
You probably want to bet on Kentucky Derby winner American Pharoah at Saturday’s Preakness, but there’s one problem—so does everyone else.
American Pharoah is naturally the favorite for the second leg of the Triple Crown, but the sheer amount of people betting on the horse has driven his odds to a ridiculous 10-13. Best of luck getting rich betting on a horse with those numbers.
Here is a look at the odds and post positions for American Pharoah and the rest of the small Preakness field, courtesy of Odds Shark, as of Thursday at 4 p.m. ET.
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| 1 | American Pharoah | 10-13 | Bob Baffert | Victor Espinoza |
| 2 | Dortmund | 15-4 | Bob Baffert | Martin Garcia |
| 3 | Mr. Z | 25-1 | D. Wayne Lukas | Corey Nakatani |
| 4 | Danzig Moon | 14-1 | Mark Casse | Julien Leparoux |
| 5 | Tale of Verve | 50-1 | Dallas Stewart | Joel Rosario |
| 6 | Bodhisattva | 50-1 | Jose Corrales | Trevor McCarthy |
| 7 | Divining Rod | 20-1 | Arnaud Delacour | Javier Castellano |
| 8 | Firing Line | 17-4 | Simon Callaghan | Gary Stevens |
Examining the Odds
The first thing that jumps out when looking at the odds is the number next to American Pharoah's name.
Those odds are head-turning even though this horse just won the Kentucky Derby and has five consecutive victories. Sure, he's the clear favorite and jockey Victor Espinoza parlayed last year's Kentucky Derby win with California Chrome into a Preakness victory and won't be intimidated by the spotlight, but there isn't a lot to be won from those figures.
Victor Mather of the New York Times discussed the predicament facing bettors Saturday:
"It is hard to find fault with American Pharoah. He has won five straight races and vanquished a strong field in the Kentucky Derby. There is no reason to think he will not come out firing again on Saturday. From a bettor’s standpoint, though, it might be wise to look elsewhere. There is no guarantee that everything will go right for him again, and his odds are likely to be quite short.
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It is worth heeding Mather’s warning, especially since American Pharoah drew the No. 1 post. He had a clear opening on the outside at Churchill Downs and took full advantage with an impressive closing kick, but there may not be such a wide-open break ahead of him from the inside with so much traffic.
As Mather said, everything broke just perfectly for American Pharoah at the Kentucky Derby. That may not be the case at the Preakness, which makes justifying those odds difficult.
If a horse does upset American Pharoah, there is a good chance it will be either Dortmund or Firing Line.
They battled each other for the lead for most of the Kentucky Derby until American Pharoah powered to the finish from the outside. The Preakness is a slightly shorter race than the 1.25-mile Run for the Roses at Churchill Downs, and another quick start from either could be enough to steal the show from the favorite.
Dortmund is also right next to American Pharoah at the post, which means they will battle each other for early positioning from the inside. Neither can afford to fall behind and get caught in traffic, so the race could be determined in the opening stretch for the two favorites.
On the other hand, Firing Line has the outside path from post No. 8, which opens up the possibility of charging from the edge like American Pharoah did in the Derby.
Both Dortmund and Firing Line boast better odds than the Kentucky Derby champion, which makes them intriguing bets because Dortmund has only one loss in his entire career, and Firing Line has finished in first or second place in every race he entered.
Perhaps the three best horses in the field aren't what you are looking for when it comes to betting on the Preakness. If so, look no further than the most intriguing long shot—Bodhisattva.
That is not to suggest he is going to shock the field and win the Preakness, but there is a lot to like if you are feeling adventurous with the odds. Bodhisattva boasts eight top-three finishes, including a win at the Federico Tesio Stakes at Pimlico and two wins at Laurel Park.
There is something to be said for familiarity with the track in such a high-stakes race. Jockey Trevor McCarthy is also familiar with Pimlico and tallied an impressive 167 victories at Laurel Park and Pimlico as Maryland's leading rider in 2014.
McCarthy discussed the opportunity on a track he knows so well, per Jon Meoli of The Baltimore Sun: "I think it'll be a huge deal. Maryland, they need a horse like this to really get people interested and for people to come out to the races and watch."
It would certainly make for a great story for the fans in Baltimore.
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