Jay Ajayi Could Be Miami Dolphins' Biggest Steal of 2015 NFL Draft

How does a player like Boise State's Jay Ajayi become available on Day 3 of the draft in the fifth round? Ajayi fell due to concerns around the health of his knees. According to Bob McGinn of the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel, "Several executives said they either have removed him from consideration or backed way off because of how their medical staff evaluated his knee."

Those concerns, however, do not apply to his immediate future, but to his long-term future. He will be able to play at his usual level in 2015 and for the foreseeable future; the question is how long that future will last. Ajayi's career might be abbreviated, but most running backs have short careers—and not all of them are sweet.

The Miami Dolphins capitalized on a late-round opportunity to add a player who can potentially pay dividends for them this year and in the future. 

Ajayi is a jack of all trades, and he joins a Miami Dolphins team that needed some diversity at his position. He can run between the tackles, where none of Miami's backs are particularly skilled. He joins a team with a starter at his position (Lamar Miller) who is entering a contract year.

Ajayi put up some Madden-like numbers at Boise State, with 678 career rushing attempts (fifth-most in school history) for 3,796 yards (fourth-most in school history) and 50 touchdowns (tied for second-most in school history).

He also finished in the top 10 in Boise State history in 200-yard rushing games (two, second), touchdowns (55, third), 100-yard rushing games (17, t-third), yards per carry (5.60, fourth), scoring (330 points, fifth) and all-purpose yards (4,583, eighth).

You could say he was pretty productive. 

So, too, was Georgia running back Todd Gurley, who had been linked to the Dolphins throughout the predraft process. According to several reports (from Omar Kelly of the Sun-Sentinel and Adam Beasley of the Miami Herald, h/t Darin Gantt of Pro Football Talk), the Dolphins held Gurley in high regard as a potential target at No. 14 overall.

Gurley could turn out to be a good pro, but first-round running backs have a high failure rate, and Gurley is already facing a hurdle in his pending rehab from a torn ACL.

It wouldn't surprise me if most Dolphins fans probably let out a sigh of relief when the St. Louis Rams selected Gurley with the 10th overall pick in the 2015 NFL draft.

The potential reward might be high, but the risk is even higher. The only way that pick will be viewed as a success is if Gurley goes on to be one of the most productive and unstoppable backs in the league. The only way that pick will be viewed as a failure is if he is either unable to return to his pre-injury dominance or if he suffers some other kind of injury that running backs so often suffer.

Ajayi might, too, but in the fifth round, the risk is worth the reward. 

That's especially true given all that Ajayi could become for the Dolphins. 

"Of all the backs in this draft," said an AFC scout, according to NFL.com's Lance Zierlein, "Ajayi might be my favorite because he can do everything you want from a back and you don't have to find a complementary back to pick up the slack for him in any one area."

The Dolphins have a need for an all-purpose running back, especially since most of their backs fall into one category: scatback. Between Miller, Damien Williams, LaMichael James and Mike Gillislee, the Dolphins have a whole lot of backs who can operate out in the open field.

Ajayi can do all of that for the Dolphins, as well. In fact, according to Pro Football Focus, he was the most productive pass-catching back in this year's draft class. 

The Dolphins didn't need another receiving option in their backfield, though. What the Dolphins were really missing was a back who could pound the rock between the tackles. That's exactly what Ajayi brings to the table, as Zierlein also credits Ajayi as a "physical, downhill runner between tackles."

Between his ability to bring that physicality but also to add a "true weapon out of [the] backfield with adequate hands and [a] good feel for maximizing each catch in space," per Zierlein, it's no wonder he became the first player in FBS history to notch more than 1,800 rushing yards and more than 500 receiving yards. 

Forget finding a complementary back for Miller; if Ajayi can bring that kind of balance to the backfield, the Dolphins may have found their new bell cow. 

If the Dolphins and Miller hit an impasse in their negotiations during his contract year or after it's over next March, Ajayi will already have one year of experience in the NFL and in the Dolphins offense. At that point, he should be ready to take over as the feature back—if he hasn't already.

Ajayi may only play through his rookie deal for the Dolphins, but the trade-off is worth it to get four years of production at the running back position for the price of a fifth-round pick.

Every year, sports writers march haplessly into the trap of evaluating a draft class in its immediate aftermath. Some picks are labeled as reaches, and others are considered steals, but it's all based on the consensus and the groupthink among draft analysts. Only when the players take the field will the steals and reaches begin to emerge.

But even as we speak, certain players have a higher probability of becoming a steal than others. Being drafted to the right team, with the right need at the right position, can have a lot to do with the trajectory that player takes in his career.

It's all lined up perfectly for Ajayi. 

Unless otherwise noted, all stats obtained via Boise State's team website.