Preakness Picks 2015: Predictions and Odds for All Horses in the Lineup
The week leading up to the 2015 Preakness Stakes has been full of more twists and turns than an M. Night Shyamalan movie.
Things began to take a turn toward the unexpected when famed trainer Todd Pletcher announced he would be pulling all four of his horses from Preakness contention. Not only did that remove several viable contenders, but it decreased the race's size to just eight horses.
Wednesday's post position draw only further shook things up. Kentucky Derby winner American Pharoah drew the No. 1 gate. While starting from the inside isn't quite as treacherous at Pimlico as it is at Churchill Downs, it's certainly an unfavorable location. In fact, only one horse—Tabasco Cat in 1994—has won from the position since 1961, according to Preakness.com.
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With the post positions now set, the race's odds have shifted. Let's take a look at the field's post positions and the updated lines and predict how the Preakness is likely to unfold.
Preakness Post Positions and Odds
| 1 | American Pharoah | 5-6 | Bob Baffert | Victor Espinoza |
| 2 | Dortmund | 15-4 | Bob Baffert | Martin Garcia |
| 3 | Mr. Z | 25-1 | D. Wayne Lukas | Corey Nakatani |
| 4 | Danzig Moon | 16-1 | Mark Casse | Julien Leparoux |
| 5 | Tale of Verve | 50-1 | Dallas Stewart | Joel Rosario |
| 6 | Bodhisattva | 40-1 | Jose Corrales | Trevor McCarthy |
| 7 | Divining Rod | 16-1 | Arnaud Delacour | Javier Castellano |
| 8 | Firing Line | 17-4 | Simon Callaghan | Gary Stevens |
All Preakness odds courtesy of Odds Shark.
2015 Preakness Predictions
| Win | American Pharoah |
| Place | Firing Line |
| Show | Dortmund |
| Fourth | Divining Rod |
Look familiar? The way things are set up right now, we could see the exact same finishing order for the first three places as the Kentucky Derby.
Yes, American Pharoah will have his work cut out early in the race. Starting from the No. 1 gate is never easy, and there's always the risk of getting pinned inside and falling behind the pack—especially with the big, powerful Dortmund right beside him in the No. 2 gate.
Although, American Pharoah showed his ability to start quickly in the Kentucky Derby, breaking quickly from the outside and accelerating to move into third position before the first turn. That start set up the rest of his race, as he was able to rely on his extraordinary stamina to remain near the front and pull away in the end.
If American Pharoah is able to get the same kind of jump at Pimlico, it's unlikely he'll be pinned inside. He may even be able to move to the front and set the pace. That will prove to be a huge advantage for the colt, as he will have the opportunity to ride the rail; he was forced to run three wide off the rail for the majority of the Kentucky Derby.
Firing Line will once again be American Pharoah's biggest threat. The colt drew a fantastic position in the No. 8 gate—a location that will allow him plenty of options early in the race. Firing Line is also very strong out of the gate and should be able to push toward the front of the pack early. That will likely set up a compelling duel between the Derby winner and runner-up down the final stretch.
Here's what Firing Line's jockey, Gary Stevens, had to say about the post draw during an interview with Dan Wolken of USA Today: "It's a huge advantage. Having American Pharoah on the outside of me in the Derby, (jockey) Victor (Espinoza) had options and he took advantage of them. Hopefully I'll be able to take the same kind of advantage in this race. I'm going to sleep a lot easier tonight than had I drawn on the inside."
Dortmund is just as capable of starting quickly as American Pharoah; however, his stamina is still a concern. Sure, the Preakness is a slightly shorter race than the Derby, but the colt's inability to finish strong at Churchill Downs is a concern here—especially against two fantastic closing horses.
There's a strong possibility Dortmund will find himself in the mix throughout the majority of the race once again, only to be burned by American Pharoah and Firing Line in the end.
Rounding out the superfecta is Triple Crown newcomer Divining Rod. The colt comes from a great pedigree that includes Pulpit and Unbridled, and he lived up to lofty expectations during a three-length victory in the Coolmore Lexington Stakes back in April.
Divining Rod has a favorable starting location in gate No. 7, and while he may not have the speed to outlast the race's top three contenders, he shouldn't have a problem finishing just behind them.
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