Preakness Odds 2015: Updated Vegas Lines and Predictions After Post Draw

Tyler ConwayMay 13, 2015

For more than a month now, the horse racing world has been abuzz, claiming American Pharoah was one for the ages. That his historic runs at the Rebel Stakes and Arkansas Derby portended great things. That perhaps he was finally going to end the decades-long drought without a Triple Crown winner.

If that proves to be the case, Pharoah will have earned it. For the second straight race the favorite wound up with an unfortunate draw, landing on the inside post for Saturday's Preakness Stakes. After coming in from one of the outermost posts in the deep Kentucky Derby, he'll have to contend with seven competitors converging from the start.

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Bleacher Report1w

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"It's kind of a different vibe here," trainer Bob Baffert told reporters, per ESPN.com, comparing Churchill Downs to Pimlico. "But unless they re-draw it, we'll have to live with it."

Despite the draw, Pharoah remains an overwhelming favorite to take home the Preakness. He's currently listed at 4-5 on the morning line, significantly ahead of second favorite Dortmund, who comes in at 7-2. Another Baffert-trained colt, Dortmund finished third in the Derby and might end Pharoah's Triple Crown bid early when he lines up in the No. 2 post.

Post Position	Horse	Odds	Trainer	Jockey
1	American Pharoah	4-5	Bob Baffert	Victor Espinoza
2	Dortmund	7-2	Bob Baffert	Martin Garcia
3	Mr. Z	20-1	D. Wayne Lukas	Corey Nakatani
4	Danzig Moon	15-1	Mark Casse	Julien Leparoux
5	Tale of Verve	30-1	Dallas Stewart	Joel Rosario
6	Bodhisattva	20-1	Jose Corrales	Trevor McCarthy
7	Divining Rod	12-1	Arnaud Delacour	Javier Castellano
8	Firing Line	4-1	Simon Callaghan	Gary Stevens

“Dortmund, he’s a big horse,” Baffert said, per Joe Drape of the New York Times. “Once he gets rolling, he’s got that big long stride. He ran well and earned his trip here.”

Dortmund was also the second favorite at Churchill Downs before finishing third. The colt had previously won his first six races, including impressive triumphs at the Santa Anita Derby and San Felipe Stakes. It'll be interesting to see which of the two Baffert stars gets out of the gate fast, as it could be the difference between a Triple Crown winner and a massive spoiler.

Dortmund and Pharoah will face stiff competition in Firing Line, who will run on the opposite end of them in the No. 8 post. Firing Line is two weeks removed from a surprising turn at Churchill Downs, which saw the underdog come within a length of upsetting American Pharoah.

If the second-place showing wasn't enough, the shortened length of the Preakness should also play in Firing Line's favor. It was down the final straight stretch where Pharoah overtook Firing Line and flashed an extra gear. Shorten the track a little, and Firing Line might be every bit as powerful as Pharoah come Saturday.

While rarely discussed prior to the Kentucky Derby, Firing Line has become a regular source of conversation heading into the Preakness. Led by trainer Simon Callaghan and legendary jockey Gary Stevens, there's more than enough pedigree to make you believe Firing Line could pull off the upset.

"Hopefully we can turn the tables on American Pharaoh, the same as we did Dortmund," Stevens told Mike Farrell of the Associated Press. "But believe me, I have plenty of respect for all three horses. They are very, very good and exceptional colts."

All three top contenders will be the major focus all week, thanks in large part to a mass exodus of Todd Pletcher-trained colts.

Carpe Diem, Competitive Edge, Materiality and Stanford were pulled from the race earlier this week, a surprising move that helped deplete the field to eight. Materiality was the sixth-place finisher at Churchill Downs and Carpe Diem came in 10th, though the Blue Grass Stakes winner has shown much more fight. Competitive Edge was also drawing some sleeper after taking the Pat Day Mile and extending his career winning streak to four.

Pletcher said he believes Materiality will benefit from the break between the Derby and Belmont.

Charlie Riedel/Associated Press

"We felt five weeks to the Belmont would be an advantage for [Materiality]," Pletcher said, per Don Markus of the Baltimore Sun. "[He] has been training well. He's by a Belmont-winning sire. If you come back in two weeks and you turn out to be wrong, not only could you not run well in the Preakness, it could compromise your chances in the Belmont as well."

None of the other five remaining horses have better than 12-1 odds. Divining Rod's a midcard horse, a third-place finisher at the Tampa Bay Derby who is best known for sharing an owner with Barbaro. Danzig Moon wound up fifth at the Kentucky Derby but has won only one of his six career races. Tale of Verve, Mr. Z and Bodhisattva are each fine horses but long shots for a reason.

As it stands, the final three at Pimlico should look a lot like Churchill Downs. The only question is whether Dortmund or Firing Line can change the result.