Preakness Picks 2015: Vegas Odds and Predictions Heading into Post Draw

The post position draw is usually the event that shakes up the outlook of the annual Preakness Stakes, as starting gates are extremely important to the success of the race's competitors. However, this year, another circumstance involving famed trainer Todd Pletcher may prove to be even more of a factor.

Pletcher announced Tuesday that he would be pulling all four of his horses from Pimlico's race. Those horses include Kentucky Derby contenders Materiality (sixth place) and Carpe Diem (10th place) and Triple Crown newcomers Competitive Edge and Stanford.

Materiality was seen as a potential challenger to favorite American Pharoah in the Preakness, but Pletcher explained his decision to pull the colt during an interview with Jonathan Lintner of the Courier-Journal:

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We were considering it very seriously. Basically, it came down to we just felt two weeks was a little bit risky. We felt five weeks to the Belmont would be an advantage for him. He's been at Belmont since two days after the Derby and has been training well. He's by a Belmont-winning sire. If you come back in two weeks and you turn out to be wrong, not only could you not run well in the Preakness, it could compromise your chances in the Belmont as well.

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With those horses now officially scratched, we could see just eight contenders in this year's Preakness Stakes. Here's a look at the impending race's updated odds, via Odds Shark:

Horse	Odds
American Pharoah	5-8
Firing Line	4-1
Dortmund	9-2
Danzig Moon	18-1
Divining Rod	20-1
Bodhisattva	50-1
Grand Bili	50-1
Tale of Verve	50-1

American Pharoah finds himself a larger favorite to win the Preakness following the scratches of Pletcher's horses. The colt's odds increased from 5-6 to 5-8 once the trainer's decision was revealed. Second- and third-place Kentucky Derby finishers Firing Line and Dortmund remain the other favorites at Pimlico by a significant margin.

So, here's the burning question: Will Pharoah win the middle jewel of the Triple Crown? Let's go ahead and predict the answer to that question.

Finish	Horse
Win	American Pharoah
Place	Dortmund
Show	Firing Line
Fourth	Divining Rod

There you have it. American Pharoah will take the Preakness with another strong showing. There are plenty of factors that make Pharoah the big odds-on favorite at Pimlico, and the absence of Pletcher's horses only add to the Kentucky Derby winner's allure.

The smallish Preakness field will benefit Pharoah in a big way. No matter which post position he draws, he's assured of a far better location than he had in the Derby. At Churchill Downs, Pharoah was forced to start far out wide and remain three wide of the rail throughout the race, adding plenty of distance to the 1 1/4-mile gallop.

Pharoah won't have that problem at Pimlico. With just eight horses expected to contend, the No. 8 gate will be the furthest location from the rail. Due to Pharoah's ability to start cleanly and quickly accelerate, he'll be able to put himself in far better position than he had in the Derby.

Dortmund ran a solid Derby, leading for the majority of the race; however, he ran out of gas down the final stretch and was passed by Pharoah and Firing Line. The Preakness is 1/16 of a mile shorter than the Kentucky Derby, and that slight difference will be the reason he's able to outlast Firing Line this time around.

We should see a solid battle for third between Firing Line and Divining Rod; however, the nod goes to the more consistent horse here. While Divining Rod looked great in his Coolmore Lexington Stakes victory, he struggled previously in the Tampa Bay Derby, finishing third behind Carpe Diem and Ami's Flatter.

Divining Rod has the speed and fresh legs to compete in the Preakness, but he won't be able to rival Firing Line's finishing ability.