Each Monday morning, we will preview every college football DI FBS game of the upcoming week. All of our college football content, including our most recent power rankings and links to the pre-season preview are located here.
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The inputs to the 10,000 simulations of these games are based on a rigorous analysis of each team that considers strength-of-schedule-adjusted team and player ratings and then makes modifications for injuries and depth at each position.
Game of the Week: No. 23 Oregon 25 @ No. 21 Boise State 27
The college football season kicks off Thursday night with what shapes up as a classic in Boise on the blue turf. Big things will be expected from the winner of this game.
Oregon is looking for revenge after a 37-32 home loss to Boise State last season. Winning on the road could be a huge boost to the Ducks' season.
After this week, Oregon gets all of its toughest opponents (Utah, Cal, USC and Oregon State) at home. A victory could mean even more to Boise State. The Broncos likely need to go undefeated to make a BCS bowl game.
Oregon is the only ranked team on the schedule. The Broncos' other non-conference games are against Miami (OH) (our No. 119 team nationally), Bowling Green (a middle of the pack MAC squad) and UC-Davis (an FCS team).
In conference, Boise State should cruise. The Broncos went undefeated in the WAC in 2008 with an average victory of 42-12. So much is on the line for both teams in the first college football game of the season.
The verdict? This should turn out to be a great game and is essentially too close to call. Very little has changed since our original Week 1 Preview, which predicted Oregon would win 51.2 percent of the time, yet had Boise State scoring more points on average.
The homefield advantage must have kicked in a little more in these 10,000 simulations as Boise State takes the crucial contest 52.3% and by an average score of 27-25.
Other Notable Games in Week 1
Most of the biggest non-conference games of the season take place this weekend. Alabama and Virginia Tech will meet in the Georgia Dome and with the Hokies' top running back, Darren Evans, out for the season, the Crimson Tide becomes a prohibitive favorite, winning 85.6 percent of the time and by an average score of 21-9.
Offensive juggernaut and 2009 Big 12 sleeper team, Oklahoma State, wins convincingly over the SEC's Georgia Bulldogs. The Cowboys average more than six touchdowns in winning 85.8 percent of the time and by a score of 43-27.
Non-BCS contender BYU opens its bid for a perfect season and national recognition by traveling to our No. 3 team Oklahoma. The Cougars' dreams of playing David to the BCS' Goliath are crushed in a 45-17 rout that the Sooners win 95 percent of the time.
Notre Dame faces an early trap game when it hosts Nevada. While the Fighting Irish may be looking forward to Michigan, USC, and others, the Wolf Pack brings a prolific offense running the unconventional "Pistol" spread.
Notre Dame can't afford to overlook Chris Ault's squad. In the simulations, the Irish win just 58.9 percent of the time at home and by an average score of 28-23. Michigan could be in a similar boat.
Using three quarterbacks in a game may work against an FCS opponent (not named Appalachian State), but Western Michigan appears to be the MAC's best.
Right now the Wolverines are in a position where that should be considered good competition. Michigan wins just 53.9 percent of the time and by an average score of 22-19.
And, the Big East and ACC pictures get a little clearer right off the bat as Rutgers defeats Cincinnati (68.5 percent) and Florida State takes out Miami (77 percent) ... Auburn fans should thank me for not mentioning their game.
Week 1 Scores for Every FBS Game
|Matchup||Home Win%||Avg Score|
|Citadel @ North Carolina||95.0||5.3-34.9|
|Jacksonville State @ Georgia Tech||95.0||5.5-51.8|
|Middle Tennessee @ Clemson||95.0||7.5-27.4|
|Brigham Young @ Oklahoma||95.0||17.4-45.3|
|Florida Atlantic @ Nebraska||95.0||13.6-38.8|
|Louisiana-Monroe @ Texas||95.0||4.5-65.4|
|North Dakota @ Texas Tech||95.0||6.2-46.4|
|Northern Colorado @ Kansas||95.0||8.8-45.5|
|Indiana State @ Louisville||95.0||8.3-33.4|
|Liberty @ West Virginia||95.0||4.7-51.5|
|Wofford @ South Florida||95.0||6.7-37.8|
|Youngstown State @ Pittsburgh||95.0||6.1-38.3|
|Akron @ Penn State||95.0||8.7-44.0|
|Montana State @ Michigan State||95.0||5.5-33.0|
|Navy @ Ohio State||95.0||9.0-32.7|
|Northern Iowa @ Iowa||95.0||5.0-44.3|
|Towson @ Northwestern||95.0||7.1-25.5|
|Alcorn State @ Southern Miss||95.0||7.8-43.6|
|Appalachian State @ East Carolina||95.0||6.5-33.6|
|Northwestern State @ Houston||95.0||6.6-50.2|
|Nicholls State @ Air Force||95.0||6.5-39.8|
|Utah State @ Utah||95.0||6.6-37.1|
|Idaho State @ Arizona State||95.0||7.4-31.2|
|Portland State @ Oregon State||95.0||7.3-41.3|
|San Jose State @ USC||95.0||4.8-54.3|
|Charleston Southern @ Florida||95.0||2.7-70.6|
|Missouri State @ Arkansas||95.0||7.3-37.6|
|Western Carolina @ Vanderbilt||95.0||6.3-28.3|
|Western Kentucky @ Tennessee||95.0||4.1-39.6|
|Mississippi Valley State @ Arkansas State||95.0||9.0-34.1|
|California-Davis @ Fresno State||95.0||6.7-30.8|
|Sacramento State @ UNLV||94.8||9.5-31.6|
|Maryland @ California||94.6||8.6-33.0|
|Richmond @ Duke||93.8||6.7-24.8|
|Northern Illinois @ Wisconsin||93.2||10.8-37.6|
|Northeastern @ Boston College||92.6||8.5-25.3|
|Southern Illinois @ Marshall||91.8||7.8-28.1|
|Jackson State @ Mississippi State||91.4||6.8-24.6|
|Southern University @ Louisiana-Lafayette||87.8||9.7-27.3|
|North Texas @ Ball State||87.4||11.6-28.5|
|William & Mary @ Virginia||86.8||6.5-23.2|
|Weber State @ Wyoming||86.6||7.5-21.0|
|North Dakota State @ Iowa State||86.4||13.0-28.2|
|Georgia @ Oklahoma State||85.8||26.8-42.6|
|Villanova @ Temple||85.4||7.6-21.8|
|Massachusetts @ Kansas State||85.2||8.3-23.5|
|Samford @ UCF||83.8||7.5-20.3|
|Coastal Carolina @ Kent State||83.0||11.3-26.7|
|Central Arkansas @ Hawaii||82.8||12.0-26.4|
|Central Michigan @ Arizona||81.4||14.8-28.4|
|Eastern Kentucky @ Indiana||80.8||9.5-22.8|
|Idaho @ New Mexico State||80.2||10.3-23.3|
|San Diego State @ UCLA||79.8||11.0-23.6|
|Miami (FL) @ Florida State||77.0||10.8-22.7|
|Buffalo @ UTEP||75.4||16.2-27.7|
|Missouri @ Illinois||73.3||24.4-34.2|
|South Carolina @ North Carolina State||72.5||11.6-19.7|
|Stephen F. Austin @ Southern Methodist||71.7||12.5-22.3|
|Cincinnati @ Rutgers||68.5||21.6-29.8|
|Nevada @ Notre Dame||58.9||23.1-27.7|
|Colorado State @ Colorado||56.9||18.6-23.2|
|Toledo @ Purdue||56.5||12.6-16.2|
|New Mexico @ Texas A&M||56.3||19.2-23.2|
|Western Michigan @ Michigan||53.9||19.0-22.2|
|Oregon @ Boise State||52.3||24.7-27.0|
|Rice @ UAB||39.0||29.3-27.1|
|Army @ Eastern Michigan||37.7||15.2-12.9|
|Troy @ Bowling Green||33.3||22.8-18.4|
|Connecticut @ Ohio||28.5||17.4-11.4|
|Baylor @ Wake Forest||26.5||25.5-18.0|
|Louisiana Tech @ Auburn||24.0||23.1-15.6|
|Alabama vs Virginia Tech||14.4||20.5- 8.9|
|Kentucky @ Miami (OH)||12.4||17.9- 6.6|
|Minnesota @ Syracuse||12.0||25.3-10.6|
|Tulsa @ Tulane||6.4||34.5-15.9|
|Mississippi @ Memphis||5.0||47.2- 9.4|
|LSU @ Washington||5.0||47.6- 7.6|
|Stanford @ Washington State||5.0||38.8- 7.8|
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Paul Bessire is the Product Manager of Content and Quantitative Analysis for WhatIfSports.com, a division of FOX Sports Interactive specializing in NCAA Matchup analysis and college football sim games.
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