San Francisco 49ers: Realistic 2015 Projections for Every Major Stat Category
The San Francisco 49ers' offseason is just beginning, though all the exciting events are wrapped up. If you find voluntary workouts and minicamps thrilling, then you should thoroughly enjoy the next few months.
For those of you who find this part of the offseason boring, let's look ahead a bit at some projections for the 2015 season.
Stats, while meaningless at times, can tell you a lot about a team. The 49ers are a perfect example. After going 8-8 in 2014, it wasn't hard to imagine that they were statistically worse in many of the major categories.
At times, stats don't support a drop in a team's overall record. However, for the 49ers, this was unfortunately the reality in 2014.
Can the 49ers improve? Well, let's take a look at my projections for every major stat category for the upcoming season.
Sacks
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2014 total: 36 sacks (T-21st)
2015 projection: 45 sacks
The 49ers haven't really been the same in the sack department since Aldon Smith's off-field issues forced him into playing only 18 games in the last two seasons. Smith didn't miss a game in his first two seasons, recording a combined 33.5 sacks.
Smith seems to have gotten his life in order. Considering he's in a contract year, I suspect Smith will be on his best behavior this season.
As a result, expect a spike in the sack totals for 2015. Smith should have a 10-plus-sack season, but don't be surprised if we get more production from the other outside 'backers on this team.
Look out for Aaron Lynch, who should receive a ton of playing time opposite Smith. I also wouldn't be surprised if 49ers defensive coordinator Eric Mangini finds a way to get more playing time for their other talented edge-rushers, namely rookie linebacker Eli Harold.
We could very well see a NASCAR package under Mangini, who's known for his creative schemes on defense.
Interceptions
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2014 total: 23 INT (1st)
2015 projection: 14 INT
Expect a huge drop-off in interceptions for the 2015 season. The interception stat category can fluctuate from season to season, but the drop-off will largely result due to the change in personnel.
The loss of Perrish Cox (5 INTs) and Chris Culliver (4 INTs) in free agency will definitely hurt. Both players were fantastic last season despite all the injuries on defense—not to mention that the 49ers will change schematically with defensive coordinator Vic Fangio departing in the offseason.
This will still be a 3-4 base defense, but Mangini and Fangio operate two different styles. Mangini's defense is far more technical to a certain degree, while Fangio's defense is more free-flowing. Fangio gives his players more freedom to make plays.
Regardless, I still think this 49ers defense will have success in 2015. It'll just have to do it without the high interception totals.
Passing Yards
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2014 total: 3,063 passing yards, 191.4 YPG (30th)
2015 projection: 3,800 passing yards, 237.5 YPG
The 49ers' passing offense was absolutely abysmal last season. Honestly, the Niners can't get any worse in this area. They might not finish with a top-15 passing attack in 2015, but they can only go up from here.
With new additions such as Torrey Smith and Reggie Bush, the 49ers will have better complements surrounding Kaepernick. But Kaepernick will have to make improvement himself before the 49ers can properly utilize their new toys on offense
Kaepernick will have to especially show improvement with his touch and reads while in the pocket. Again, he can't get any worse in those areas after last season.
The 49ers' success on the ground will largely determine how successful they are passing the football. If new offensive coordinator Geep Chryst can effectively use Kaepernick's mobility against opposing defenses, this should help open up this lackluster passing offense.
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Rushing Yards
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2014 total: 2,176 rushing yards, 136.0 YPG (4th)
2015 projection: 2,500 rushing yards, 156.2 YPG
Despite all the criticism offensive coordinator Greg Roman received last season from fans and analysts alike, the 49ers finished with the fourth best rushing attack in the league. With the new additions this season, the they should be able to build on what they did last season.
Frank Gore has left the building, but I really like Carlos Hyde this year. Hyde is a younger version of Gore and should bring back some explosiveness to this 49ers offense.
They also drafted a solid backup in Mike Davis in the fourth round. Much like Hyde, Davis is a power back who should give the 49ers some insurance in case their lead back gets injured. Davis is also a very capable pass-catcher despite his 5'9", 217-pound frame.
The cherry on top will be Colin Kaepernick's involvement with the running game. Owner Jed York made assurances on NFL Network that new quarterbacks coach Steve Logan will use Kaepernick more in the running game in 2015 (h/t SFGate.com). That should be good news for everyone.
Receiving Yards
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2014 total: 292 receptions, 3,407 receiving yards, 212.9 YPG (31st)
2015 projection: 325 receptions, 3,800 receiving yards, 237.5 YPG
The 49ers haven't significantly increased the talent at the wide receiver position, but the addition of Torrey Smith should open up opportunities for other players in this offense.
Anquan Boldin and Vernon Davis will benefit the most from Smith's presence. Smith forces opposing safeties to account for his speed, which should open up the middle of the field for Boldin. It should also give Davis opportunities to attack the seam on a consistent basis.
I'm also accounting for the increased workload of Quinton Patton and Bruce Ellington. Both receivers couldn't crack the rotation last season but should have ample playing time in 2015.
Kick/Punt Return Yards
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2014 total: 1,104 kick return yards, 227 punt return yards (T-9th)
2015 projection: 1,400 kick return yards, 350 punt return yards
The 49ers were relatively solid on kick and punt returns last season, tying for ninth in total return yards. They should get even better with the addition of Jarryd Hayne.
The former rugby player will line up as a running back on the official depth chart, but head coach Jim Tomsula would be a fool if he didn't give Hayne a chance to cover kick and punt returns.
He would be a natural for this position.
The No. 1 trait for a great kick and punt returner is ball control. You'll likely never see him fumble on a return. He has strong hands as well as the speed and quickness to be an absolute terror at the position.
Since Ted Ginn Jr. left, the 49ers have lacked explosiveness at the position. The last time the 49ers scored a return touchdown was in Week 1 of the 2011 season. If given the opportunity, Hayne can break that streak.
Touchdowns
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2014 total: 10 rushing TD, 20 receiving TD, 0 return TD, 3 DEF TD = 33 total (T-24th)
2015 projection: 19 rushing TD, 24 receiving TD, 2 return TD, 0 DEF TD = 45 total
This 49ers offense will improve from last season; the question is how much? I see a 12-touchdown increase from last season. Most, if not all, of this improvement will come from the offense.
The 49ers also benefited from three defensive touchdowns last season, but as I explained before, they lost some significant players in the back end of the defense.
Don't expect the 49ers to repeat their performance in the interception department.
We should also see an improvement in the return game. The addition of Hayne should give this return unit a spark. We could also see that previously mentioned drought finally end if Hayne can find the end zone at least once next season.
Look out for a significant increase in rushing touchdowns. Hyde and Davis at running back will be a fantastic duo in the red zone. Also, we should Kaepernick's mobility become a bigger factor on offense. That should take this running attack to new heights.
I'm not sure if the 49ers will improve upon their 8-8 record from last year, but they have the necessary depth and talent to be competitive in 2015.
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