Preakness 2015: 10 Bold Predictions for the Run for the Black-Eyed Susans
They say the luckiest horse wins the Kentucky Derby and the fastest horse wins the Preakness Stakes. Sometimes that’s the same horse.
As the 2015 Preakness Stakes gears up this week, action on the top three Derby finishers will be hotter than a crab cake.
John Pricci of HorseRaceInsider.com wrote, “And American Pharoah is for real. If he stays healthy, not a given, his talents may be unreal, in a positive sense. He has the brilliance to be in every race. Now we know he’s got guts, too."
Several other horses from the Derby and some new shooters take aim at American Pharoah, our resident Kentucky Derby winner, to get draped in a garland of Black-eyed Susans.
Read on for some bold predictions heading into the second jewel of racing’s Triple Crown.
A Derby Runner Will Win the Preakness
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This is more or less a no-brainer, but it bears repeating: Derby runners run very well in the Preakness. Part of that is the micro-managing prior to the Derby and part of that is the incredible fitness that carries over from having run 10 furlongs just two weeks earlier.
Since 2001, only two non-Derby runners won the Preakness and one of them can technically be called a Derby runner, that being Rachel Alexandra in 2009, who ran in the Kentucky Oaks on the Friday prior to the Derby.
Looking at this field, six of the 12 probable horses ran in the Derby, so it's a 50-50 chance a Derby runner will win. The fresher horses don’t always season as well as the Derby runners.
Which Derby runner wins the Black-eyed Susans?
Relax, Sparky, we’ll get there.
Materiality Will Again Prove He's Super Talented in Preakness Loss
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This horse defied expectations in the Kentucky Derby. He had only three prior races including his tiring, though impressive, win in the Florida Derby. His 110 Beyer Speed Figure was tops for all three-year-olds.
His untoward post position (Post 3) did him little favors. Jerry Bailey, a Hall of Fame jockey and NBC horse racing analyst, said during the Derby broadcast that he figured Materiality would have to gun for the lead.
Instead Materiality took back, took dirt, lost a shoe and still finished an impressive sixth. With a smaller field of 14 horses (maybe fewer), this horse’s middle name is "Danger."
Jockey John Velazquez Will Have a VERY Tough Decision
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John Velazquez, a Hall of Fame jockey and winner of one Derby and two Belmont Stakes, has never won the Preakness Stakes. Now he’s in the enviable position of picking from two horses: Competitive Edge and Carpe Diem.
Competitive Edge won the Pat Day Mile on the Derby undercard in record fashion.
“I thought that was very impressive, especially for his first time going a straight mile,” trainer Todd Pletcher told Churchill Downs after the race. “(Jockey) Johnny (Velazquez) said it was pretty straight forward. The scary thing is that as impressive as that was, I think there is more in the tank.”
Carpe Diem, the highly touted winner of the Blue Grass Stakes, seized no day in the Kentucky.
Which horse has more upside going forward? Which horse has the potential to run in some of the richer races like the $1 million Haskell Invitational or the $1.25 million Travers Stakes or the $5 million Breeders’ Cup Classic?
Who he rides in Baltimore determines who he may ride going forward. Like too much pitching in baseball, this is a good problem to have.
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Kentucky Derby Top Three Finish 1-2-3 Again
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A strange thing happened in the Kentucky Derby: The three horses in the lead at first call were the first three horses at the wire.
More often than not a horse who can’t get the Derby distance sets the pace and then drops off faster than a stone in water. In the Derby, Dortmund, Firing Line and American Pharoah ran 1-2-3 until they turned for home. They held form but just shuffled.
Smarty Jones and Lion Heart were the only other horses in the last 11 years to be on the lead at first call and 1-2 at the wire.
Dortmund, American Pharoah and Firing Line are real good and real fast. The Derby will ensure they’re still fit and unless one of the Pletcher horses fires a big one, these three could prove to go 1-2-3 yet again.
Carpe Diem Will Show His True Colors
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You could already argue that Carpe Diem did show his true colors in the Kentucky Derby. Outside of Dortmund, nobody got a better trip than Carpe Diem.
Carpe Diem tracked the field in a ground-saving fourth position. He took a little bit of kick-back dirt, but not so much to make him rank or uncomfortable. Turning for home the colt had no fire. Disliking the track is his only excuse.
Pletcher, his trainer, couldn’t have drawn up a better trip for his horse breaking from that inside Post 2.
“He got a good trip but he may not have handled the track as he came off the bridle at the half mile pole and couldn’t make much of an excuse for him,” he told Churchill Downs after the Derby.
With fewer horses and different dirt under foot, Carpe Diem will have a second opportunity to run back to the form that won him the Blue Grass three weeks prior to the Derby.
Competitive Edge Will Be the Best Todd Pletcher Finisher
6 of 10Competitive Edge practically ran off the screen while winning the Grade 3 Pat Day Mile on the Derby undercard.
Velazquez rode him and, as previously stated, he’ll have a tough decision to make with regards to the mount.
The son of 2010 Derby winner Super Saver is unbeaten in four starts and appears to be getting better, and may get better with distance.
He has progressed slowly and methodically. His longest race to date was the Pat Day Mile, and extending an extra 3/16 of a mile for the Preakness should be well within his capacities.
As a result, he’s two furlongs fresher than most of these horses and that gives him an edge over Pletcher’s other colts.
Todd Pletcher Won't Win the Career Triple Crown
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Had your fill of Pletcher yet? With four potential horses (Carpe Diem, Materiality, Stanford and Competitive Edge), the six-time Eclipse Award trainer gets much of the billing here.
Pletcher has a Derby (2010) and two Belmonts (2007, 2013) on his resume. His 2015 horses are good, and in some cases (Materiality, Competitive Edge) very good, but so are the top three coming out of the Derby.
Many analysts touted how deep this most recent Kentucky Derby field was. Maybe in a different year Pletcher wins his second Derby. The problem is Dortmund, Firing Line and American Pharoah are incredibly gifted in their own rights and Pletcher would be wise to avoid running against them if he can control it.
The Triple Crown races come around only once a year and you take your shots when you can.
His horses are running into the proverbial buzzsaw here and that will leave Pletcher one win shy of the career Triple Crown.
Bodhisattva Will Be the Best New Shooter
8 of 10Bodhisattva is the token “local horse” taking his shot at the Preakness. He's a townie.
Among new shooters he’s got something in his favor that the others don’t: a race—and a win—at Pimlico.
The California-bred son of Student Council was valiant in winning the Tesio Stakes, the local prep for the Preakness.
Jockey Trevor McCarthy told Pimlico after the race, “I was surprised. I mean, I was going slow and thought this was a dream come true. Then, he gave me a new gear at the eighth pole. He really dug in and fought, and I hadn’t seen that side of him before today.”
He’ll need every gear he can find, but he doesn’t have to beat the big dogs, just the new shooters like Illinois Derby winner Divining Rod, the Dallas Stewart-trained Tale of Verve and the Derby-scratched Stanford.
The Preakness Stakes Will Be a Fair Race
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The Preakness will be a very true race thanks in part to its sensible 14-horse starting gate. That means nothing freaky should happen. With at most 14 horses (and only 12 pending as of this writing), the potential for horses to do their things—whatever those things are—is plausible.
The entropy of 20 horses in the Derby trumps what would otherwise be a fair race.
Come late Saturday evening, all these horses with varying running styles will let their performances shake out. That could mean a similar result to what we saw in Kentucky. That was about as rare as it comes that the three pace setters finished 1-2-3.
As the horses straighten out and turn for home, there will be little question who will win the race: the best horse, and that best horse is…
We’ll Have a Triple Crown Candidate for Three of the Last Four Years
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American Pharoah proved how talented he was while winning the Arkansas Derby, but he showed his guts in winning the Kentucky Derby.
Victor Espinoza, Pharoah’s jockey, piloted his horse to a perfect ride. He ran farther around the oval than his two competitors, Firing Line and Dortmund.
Neither one of those two had an excuse. In fact, Dortmund should, by all accounts, have been the winner of the race. He set a soft pace, and basically skimmed the rail, but was eclipsed by Firing Line and American Pharoah nonetheless.
“American Pharoah had something to prove yesterday and he removed any doubt as to his superior class and brilliance,” HorseRaceInsider.com’s John Pricci wrote. “How superior, and how classy he is in a historical context is the only question left to answer.”
In 2012 I'll Have Another was alive for the Triple Crown until he scratched the morning of the Belmont Stakes. California Chrome came within a few lengths of the historic feat a year ago and now American Pharoah will take his stab at it.
He’s still lightly raced and will sit just fine off the pace. If he gets a favorable post draw—hopefully one outside the main speed—then he’ll have an honest shot at the front, and history, after the Preakness Stakes.
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