Manny Pacquiao's Chances of Beating Floyd Mayweather in a Rematch Are Slim
Manny Pacquiao underwent surgery to repair an injury to his right rotator cuff on Wednesday afternoon, according to ESPN.com's Dan Rafael. He could be back in the ring in nine-to-12 months.
When he returns, he'd be better off staying as far away from Floyd Mayweather Jr. as possible.
Even with a repaired shoulder, Pacquiao doesn't have much of a shot against Mayweather in a rematch. We've heard all the excuses about Pacquiao's pre-fight injury, but in watching the bout, there was nothing that would suggest Pac-Man could do any better if fully healed.
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Mayweather is a master of distance and has the most amazing grasp of spatial awareness I've seen in over 30 years following the sport. The only fighters who come close are Pernell Whitaker and Roy Jones Jr.
Those skills were apparent when he dismantled Pacquiao on May 2.
Mayweather is also stronger and tougher than what he gets credit for being. In clinches, Mayweather proved to be the stronger man. He moved Pacquiao around as he pleased, which has a mental effect on an opponent.
There were times when Pacquiao landed flush shots. One or two buzzed Mayweather, but none of them put the pound-for-pound king in serious peril.
Perhaps the biggest reason Mayweather would likely repeat his easy unanimous-decision win over Pacquiao is rooted in his superior in-ring IQ. Pacquiao has proven time and again to be incapable of making adjustments mid-fight.
He's such a great fighter that his Plan A is usually good enough to beat most opponents. Rarely is he in the ring with a fighter capable of exposing the fact that he only has one approach.
Some might point to Pacquiao's boxing exhibition against Brandon Rios in 2013, but truth be told, that was a glorified sparring session. Even then, trainer Freddie Roach placed the proverbial battery in Pacquiao's back, as well as the plan in his head.
He came out to box, and Rios didn't have the speed or skills to force Pacquiao to go to a secondary approach.
This isn't meant to put Pacquiao down. He's one of the 25 best fighters in history, in my opinion. Many sluggers are one-dimensional in this way. Mike Tyson had the same issue.
That is the trick of punching power: The tendency is to become overly dependent on that strength and to underdevelop the other aspects of a fighter's game.
Pacquiao is just too small to overcome Mayweather's size, length and guile. That won't change with a repaired shoulder or a year of rest. Pacquiao should be making an exit plan from the sport, and it shouldn't include a rematch with Mayweather.
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