College Football Week 14 Projections! Who Will Be Crowned a Champion?

WhatIfSports.com will preview a week of the college football season each day for 15 days, including projected scores from 10,000simulations for all FBS games and updated standings as of that week. Once we have reached the end of the season, we will present our projected bowl match-ups with results.

Rosters and depth charts are up-to-date and as accurate as possible as of August 1, 2009. A schedule of our 2009 College Football Preview, including links to other previews that have already been posted is located here.

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For more information on how we generate the results and the definitions of Absolute and Expected Records, click here.

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Each regular season FBS game is simulated 10,000 times. The Absolute Record is simply the total number of games in which a team is favored. The Expected Record, the more accurate approach, is the sum of the team's win probabilities from each game. The Expected Record accounts for the fact that some wins are less certain than others (a 50.1% win is different than a 99% win). Since the favored team does not win every game (otherwise, why would we watch?), the likelihood of an upset is important to take into account. We may ultimately say that six teams are favored to win all of their games, but we don't expect any to do so.

Also, since we are rounding, it is possible for a team to win a game more often, yet score the same or fewer points than the opponent on average. In those cases, for Absolute Records, we always take higher winning percentage. We are not predicting a tie or a win by an underdog. This is another reason why the expected records are more accurate, as the teams are so evenly matched, the game could easily go either way.

The inputs to the simulations are based on a rigorous analysis of each team that considers strength-of-schedule-adjusted team and player ratings from 2008. Once this step is complete, we make our modifications for 2009 based on returning starters (who, where and how many), expected progression of returning players in new roles, depth at each position and incoming recruits and transfers.

Games for each week are ordered by the conference of the home team and then winning percentage of the home team, with the score reading the visitors first followed by the home team. If a team is listed as having a 95% chance of winning, that means that it won at 95% or more of the 10,000 simulations. Every underdog has a chance to win. Along those lines, this may be relatively obvious for some examples (i.e. James Madison vs. Maryland), but non-FBS rosters and ratings are not maintained individually due to lack of data. In other words, right or wrong, all non-FBS teams are treated equally.

Today we preview Week 14 and Conference Championships.

Game of the Week: SEC Championship #5 Alabama 8 vs. #1 Florida 35
This entire season we have yet to focus on our top rankedteam, the Florida Gators, and with good reasons. They have been huge favorites in every game; and we will be focusing on them now and with our bowl preview tomorrow. The "1" in the loss column for Florida is a bit of a misnomer. We cap all winning percentages at 95% to allow for the assumption that just about every team could beat another team one out of 20 times. Florida is a 95% favorite in all 13 games it plays, including the SEC Championship. The 5% chance that Florida's opponent wins each game multiplied by 13 games gives Florida 0.65 losses on the year, which rounds to 1. That's also the fewest possible losses that we could predict for a team that plays 13 games. The Gators are good. Given that, there is a realistic chance that Alabama and Florida both come into this game undefeated. The Crimson Tide is favored in all 12 of its regular season games, including by 95% in nine of those (as well as 79.4% vs. Virginia Tech, 62.5% vs. LSU and 57.8% at Ole Miss). A 12-0 vs. 12-0 SEC Championship should come with great excitement. Unfortunately for neutral college football fans, the game should not live up to the hype. Florida is too good - particularly on defense where the eleven returning Gators' starters only allow 7.1 points per game. Florida wins the SEC Championship to advance to the BCS National Championship 95% of the time and by an average score of 35-8.

Matchup	Home Win%	Avg Score
Florida State @ Virginia Tech	60.1	15-21
Kansas @ Texas	95.0	15-46
Cincinnati @ Pittsburgh	73.7	17-27
South Florida @ Connecticut	24.2	20-13
West Virginia @ Rutgers	22.4	27-17
Fresno State @ Illinois	94.6	12-36
Southern Miss @ Houston	66.7	27-35
Army @ Navy	94.4	7-29
Arkansas State @ Western Kentucky	5.0	33-7
Ohio @ Western Michigan	77.6	16-28
Arizona @ USC	95.0	8-45
Oregon State @ Oregon	62.7	20-28
California @ Washington	5.0	40-7
Alabama @ Florida	95.0	8-35
Florida Atlantic @ Florida International	68.7	16-24
New Mexico State @ Boise State	95.0	8-42
San Jose State @ Louisiana Tech	79.4	11-23
Wisconsin @ Hawaii	5.0	37-16

Final Regular Season Standings

Conference	Team	Abs Record	Exp Record
Atlantic Coast	Virginia Tech	12 - 1	10 - 3
Atlantic Coast	Georgia Tech	10 - 2	9 - 3
Atlantic Coast	Florida State	11 - 2	9 - 4
Atlantic Coast	North Carolina	9 - 3	8 - 4
Atlantic Coast	Clemson	8 - 4	8 - 4
Atlantic Coast	Miami (FL)	6 - 6	7 - 5
Atlantic Coast	North Carolina State	7 - 5	6 - 6
Atlantic Coast	Maryland	6 - 6	6 - 6
Atlantic Coast	Wake Forest	3 - 9	5 - 7
Atlantic Coast	Duke	4 - 8	4 - 8
Atlantic Coast	Boston College	3 - 9	4 - 8
Atlantic Coast	Virginia	2 - 10	3 - 9
Big 12	Texas	13 - 0	12 - 1
Big 12	Oklahoma	11 - 1	11 - 1
Big 12	Oklahoma State	10 - 2	10 - 2
Big 12	Nebraska	6 - 6	8 - 4
Big 12	Kansas	9 - 4	8 - 5
Big 12	Baylor	9 - 3	7 - 5
Big 12	Texas Tech	7 - 5	7 - 5
Big 12	Missouri	6 - 6	7 - 5
Big 12	Colorado	5 - 7	4 - 8
Big 12	Kansas State	4 - 8	4 - 8
Big 12	Iowa State	2 - 10	3 - 9
Big 12	Texas A&M	1 - 11	3 - 9
Big East	West Virginia	12 - 0	11 - 1
Big East	Rutgers	11 - 1	9 - 3
Big East	Pittsburgh	9 - 3	8 - 4
Big East	South Florida	8 - 4	8 - 4
Big East	Cincinnati	6 - 6	7 - 5
Big East	Connecticut	4 - 8	5 - 7
Big East	Louisville	3 - 9	4 - 8
Big East	Syracuse	1 - 11	2 - 10
Big Ten	Ohio State	11 - 1	10 - 2
Big Ten	Penn State	11 - 1	10 - 2
Big Ten	Illinois	10 - 2	10 - 2
Big Ten	Iowa	10 - 2	10 - 2
Big Ten	Wisconsin	10 - 2	9 - 3
Big Ten	Michigan State	7 - 5	7 - 5
Big Ten	Northwestern	6 - 6	6 - 6
Big Ten	Michigan	4 - 8	5 - 7
Big Ten	Minnesota	4 - 8	5 - 7
Big Ten	Purdue	3 - 9	3 - 9
Big Ten	Indiana	1 - 11	3 - 9
Conference USA	Houston	12 - 1	10 - 3
Conference USA	Southern Miss	10 - 3	10 - 3
Conference USA	East Carolina	8 - 4	8 - 4
Conference USA	Tulsa	7 - 5	7 - 5
Conference USA	UTEP	7 - 5	6 - 6
Conference USA	Marshall	6 - 6	5 - 7
Conference USA	Rice	5 - 7	5 - 7
Conference USA	UAB	5 - 7	5 - 7
Conference USA	Memphis	2 - 10	4 - 8
Conference USA	Southern Methodist	3 - 9	3 - 9
Conference USA	Tulane	1 - 11	3 - 9
Conference USA	UCF	2 - 10	3 - 9
Independents (FBS)	Notre Dame	11 - 1	9 - 3
Independents (FBS)	Navy	9 - 4	8 - 5
Independents (FBS)	Army	4 - 8	4 - 8
Independents (FBS)	Western Kentucky	0 - 12	1 - 11
Mid-American	Western Michigan	12 - 1	10 - 3
Mid-American	Central Michigan	9 - 3	8 - 4
Mid-American	Ball State	8 - 4	7 - 5
Mid-American	Ohio	9 - 4	7 - 6
Mid-American	Bowling Green	8 - 4	6 - 6
Mid-American	Akron	7 - 5	6 - 6
Mid-American	Kent State	5 - 7	6 - 6
Mid-American	Northern Illinois	5 - 7	6 - 6
Mid-American	Temple	4 - 8	6 - 6
Mid-American	Buffalo	5 - 7	5 - 7
Mid-American	Toledo	4 - 8	5 - 7
Mid-American	Eastern Michigan	0 - 12	2 - 10
Mid-American	Miami (OH)	0 - 12	1 - 11
Mountain West	TCU	12 - 0	10 - 2
Mountain West	Utah	9 - 3	10 - 2
Mountain West	Brigham Young	9 - 3	9 - 3
Mountain West	Air Force	9 - 3	8 - 4
Mountain West	Colorado State	6 - 6	6 - 6
Mountain West	UNLV	6 - 6	5 - 7
Mountain West	San Diego State	3 - 9	4 - 8
Mountain West	New Mexico	3 - 9	3 - 9
Mountain West	Wyoming	3 - 9	3 - 9
Pacific-10	USC	12 - 0	11 - 1
Pacific-10	California	11 - 1	10 - 2
Pacific-10	Oregon	10 - 2	8 - 4
Pacific-10	Oregon State	9 - 3	8 - 4
Pacific-10	Arizona	7 - 5	7 - 5
Pacific-10	Stanford	6 - 6	6 - 6
Pacific-10	Arizona State	5 - 7	6 - 6
Pacific-10	UCLA	4 - 8	4 - 8
Pacific-10	Washington	2 - 10	3 - 9
Pacific-10	Washington State	0 - 12	1 - 11
Southeastern	Florida	13 - 0	12 - 1
Southeastern	Alabama	12 - 1	11 - 2
Southeastern	Mississippi	11 - 1	10 - 2
Southeastern	LSU	9 - 3	9 - 3
Southeastern	Georgia	8 - 4	8 - 4
Southeastern	Tennessee	8 - 4	8 - 4
Southeastern	Arkansas	7 - 5	6 - 6
Southeastern	Vanderbilt	6 - 6	5 - 7
Southeastern	Kentucky	3 - 9	4 - 8
Southeastern	South Carolina	3 - 9	4 - 8
Southeastern	Auburn	3 - 9	3 - 9
Southeastern	Mississippi State	2 - 10	3 - 9
Sun Belt	Arkansas State	10 - 2	8 - 4
Sun Belt	Troy	9 - 3	8 - 4
Sun Belt	Middle Tennessee	8 - 5	7 - 6
Sun Belt	Florida International	7 - 5	6 - 6
Sun Belt	Louisiana-Lafayette	6 - 6	6 - 6
Sun Belt	Florida Atlantic	4 - 8	5 - 7
Sun Belt	Louisiana-Monroe	3 - 9	4 - 8
Sun Belt	North Texas	1 - 12	3 - 10
Western Athletic	Boise State	12 - 1	11 - 2
Western Athletic	Nevada	10 - 2	9 - 3
Western Athletic	Louisiana Tech	8 - 4	8 - 4
Western Athletic	Fresno State	6 - 6	6 - 6
Western Athletic	Utah State	6 - 6	5 - 7
Western Athletic	Hawaii	4 - 9	5 - 8
Western Athletic	San Jose State	4 - 8	4 - 8
Western Athletic	New Mexico State	2 - 11	4 - 9
Western Athletic	Idaho	0 - 12	1 - 11

A schedule of our 2009 College Football Preview, including links to other previews that have already been posted is located here.

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Paul Bessire is the Product Manager of Content and Quantitative Analysis for WhatIfSports.com, a division of FOX Sports Interactive specializing in NCAA Matchup analysis and college football sim games. With any comments, questions or topic suggestions, Paul can be reached at [e-mail]. Thanks!