Preakness 2015: Breaking Down American Pharoah's Odds and Predictions for Race
The 2015 Preakness Stakes, the middle leg of the Triple Crown, centers on Bob Baffert's American Pharoah.
Baffert's top horse, in what might have been his deepest Kentucky Derby offering in a decade or more, put on a show at Churchill Downs, laughing in the face of copious adversity and galloping to a smooth victory.
Now the hunt for the Triple Crown is on in earnest, and forgive the globe for the amount of times the question will be thrown around in the coming weeks—it's a feat nobody has accomplished in 37 years.
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Next for American Pharoah is the Preakness, so let's narrow the focus down to the event at Pimlico.
Odds Breakdown
It's early, but Las Vegas already feels a certain way about American Pharoah's chances at the Preakness.
According to Odds Shark, it's an even bet American Pharoah will win, with him losing a bit in the other direction (-140).
There's still much to decide when it comes to the field, which may be the ultimate factor to consider now, and one sure to sway the odds in either direction in the coming weeks.
So far, the race's official site only lists Bodhisattva and Divining Rod alongside American Pharoah. The latter is the notable threat of the two after a win at the Coolmore Lexington Stakes, as trainer Arnaud Delacour confirms the Preakness is next on the slate. Delacour said, per BloodHorse.com:
"The horse is doing very well. He breezed (May 2), and right now I am leaning toward the Preakness. I think he's great. I don't want to jinx myself, but at the moment he's doing very well. He has matured quite a bit and he understands more now what's going on.
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Of bigger concern for Baffert will be his other horse, Dortmund, after he admitted Dortmund's owner, Kaleem Shah, deserves a shot at Pimlico, per Ron Mitchell of The Blood-Horse via ESPN.com.
The same report also notes the Simon Callaghan-trained Firing Line will be in attendance, perhaps the scariest notion of all considering the criminally underrated horse finally broke into the minds of the public by holding a lead down the stretch at Churchill Downs before falling behind late.
Todd Pletcher, another heavyweight trainer, sounds like he will enter two serious contenders as well in Materiality and Carpe Diem, per David Grening of Daily Racing Form.
Taking the above into account, it's not hard to figure out why the odds rest the way they do. The Preakness is a shorter dash than the Derby, and any of the above contenders may fare better while on the quest for revenge and to play the spoiler.
Early Preakness Prediction
Right now, it would be silly to bet against American Pharoah.
The above, including potential participants, might seem scary. But here's the thing—Baffert's top horse continues to earn the label, besting the field at Churchill Downs despite running out of an iffy post position shuffled a few times thanks to scratches.
Jockey Victor Espinoza motioned for American Pharoah to turn it on late, and then the true talent discrepancy came to light, as the replay shows:
While the shorter distance may help others, the same rule applies to American Pharoah, too.
The 1 3/16 miles runs faster than Churchill Downs and is usually a weaker field. It's also important to keep in mind American Pharoah has ran just six career races, meaning he's on fresh legs, at least in comparison to some of the other possible contenders.
Oh, and how about a little history? A participant in the Kentucky Derby has gone on to win every Preakness Stakes since 2007, a poor sign for those trainers and horses entering after skipping Churchill Downs in the hopes of pulling off an upset in more favorable conditions.
All signs point to American Pharoah not encountering much of an issue at Pimlico. The field is going to be weaker and smaller than the Kentucky Derby, where Baffert's horse trumped plenty of unfavorable factors for a win.
With Espinoza up top—the guy who led California Chrome two-thirds of the way to a Triple Crown last year—American Pharoah is an easy bet at the Preakness Stakes.
Stats and information via Preakness.com unless otherwise specified.
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