5 Days Until A Nevada Upset? Notre Dame Kicks Off 2009

Five days, 16 hours, and eight minutes (roughly) from when I write this, Notre Dame and Nevada will kick off the pigskin to continue one of the best traditions yet invented by man: college football.

For months we have waited tensely, teams gauging each other against past years, future years, down years and up year.  Fans have analyzed their teams, their opponents, and their recruits.  We have gone through the what ifs, the can we-s, and the should we-s. Now its time for fans to buckle up.  Its going to be a bumpy ride.

Saturday, for Notre Dame, this ride begins with Nevada.  The Pack is coming to South Bend and they have something to prove.  They want to be this year's Boise State, they want to be the dominant team in the WAC and they want to bust the BCS wide open.  But none of that happens if they lose to Notre Dame.  They need this upset.  Its tough love when your schedule dictates that your season rides on the first game.

Imagine for a moment that Notre Dame had to play their first game against USC.  That makes me shudder.  Nevada finds themselves in this position.

Certainly, the history is different, Nevada doesn't have a history of getting embarrassed by Notre Dame for the last decade.  However, statistics will tell you that since 2005 Nevada is 0-4 in opening games against D1 opponents and that in that same time they are in general 1-8 against BCS Conference teams.  That certainly is a dismal outlook beginning this season.  But the overwhelming question is, "Can they really do it?"
Nevada fans certainly think so.

My first instinct is to completely look over this game as a Notre Dame fan.  I mean, its the WAC. Sure Nevada had a decently ranked rush defense, but the average ranking of the rushing attacks they faced was 81st.  See what I mean?  But beyond the defense there is a dangerous offense that if Notre Dame lets go, can burn.  Big time.

For those of you who have been under a rock until, well, today; Nevada runs the Pistol offense.  Quick explanation is the fact that it is essentially a variation of the spread offense with the RBs and QB  a little closer to the line of scrimmage.

Why does that matter?  Plays develop faster.  Much faster.  A few yards seems trivial but in a split second the running back is at the line and moving through the defensive unit. 

This also allows Nevada's biggest threat, quarterback Colin Kaepernick, to scramble easily on a QB keeper, or toss a quick out in record time.  But all is not well with the gun-slinging style of the pistol.

The fact that everything is closer means that the offensive line must be very solid or the QB is going to get sacked. Often.  Oh, and don't forget tackles for a loss.  If the defensive linemen isn't picked up right away, or the blitz gets through, the ball carrier will be met at the line. Nevada wasn't the worst team by far in sacks Allowed coming in at a nice round 30th ranking.

However, that was against teams whose defensive ratings averaged 76th in the nation. That's 37 spots below what the Notre Dame defense was ranked last season.  Before you get all red in the face and make that vein in your neck pop out, I know that Notre Dame wasn't the best at getting to the QB last season.  I am fairly certain that number will improve this season though.

So still the question remains.  Can they do it?  Well they certainly have the offense to win the game.  Colin Kaepernick is the BEST quarterback Notre Dame will play against all season. He is essentially Tim Teabow of the WAC, and seriously, his numbers were better than Teabow's.

They also bring back a thousand yard rusher in Vai Taua, two if you count Colin, which after running for 1130 yards I think you have to.  They lost their best receiver and only have one solid proven option coming back this season in Chris Wellington. This means that there are alot of unknowns in the WR core going into this season.

The Notre Dame defense should be able to step up for this one though.  Notre Dame cannot afford to look past Nevada and I doubt very seriously they will.  ESPN has predicted great expectations for the Irish, but a few have also said that they are overrated and that Nevada will pull out this upset.

The players are hearing this, and I doubt it makes them happy.

The Nevada fans I talked to certainly agree on that point.  Some that I talked to predict Nevada winning by as much as 28.

The bottom line is that Nevada has serious question on their own defense.  Nevada fans have said that Notre Dame will only score 17-24 on Nevada's defense.  I think the Clausen-Tate-Rudolph-Floyd group from last season could score 21 on that secondary.

As of yet word from their scrimmage last Saturday is that the offense had "taken a step backwards," and, "we are not where we need to be".  In case you were wondering; that was Coach Ault whose words were echoed by Colin Kaepernick. The defense got a few picks, but the entire secondary that was the WORST secondary in the nation last season, is gone and replaced with green, inexperienced players.

Notre Dame is painfully aware of what happens when you have inexperience all over the field.  In case you forget, go watch some games from 2007.

The Nevada secondary may improve, but they will need a miracle to improve to a level of competitiveness with the Notre Dame passing game.

My prediction for this game is 38-21. Weis will play fairly conservative, and ND will get three TDs through the air, and two on the ground. Towards the end of the game ND will get a field goal.

All in all Nevada will score and get yards.  They always get yards. But I think in the second half is where Notre Dame has more horses ready than Nevada.  Similar to Hawaii in that they were almost in it until about half-time.  I see something similar playing out here.  If Weis plays real conservative then we could see a lower score, which is possible.

What I don't see is this game being an upset. Notre Dame has to much to lose to take this lightly and they have been getting trashed the entire off season.  They know they have something to prove and they know they wont fix anything by playing Nevada close or losing to them.

Five days, 16 hours, and eight minutes from now is kick off.  Lets get this party started.