Patriots 2015 Draft: Aggregating Report Card Grades from Around the Web

Yes, it's too early to judge the results from the 2015 NFL draft.  No, that won't stop every major media outlet, including this one, from compiling snap reaction grades before any draftee has played a single snap in the league.

Draft grades can be problematic in that they assert a firm conclusion on an uncertain exercise, but they can also be useful in determining how well a team addressed its personnel needs.  While we have no idea how any of the prospects drafted this weekend will pan out, we can project their schematic fit and how they fit into a team's short- and long-term plans.

From this view, the New England Patriots 2015 class was a bit of a mixed bag, but ultimately a positive group.  The Pats surprisingly made 11 selections, second-most in the league, and loaded up in the trenches while largely ignoring ostensible needs at cornerback, wide receiver and running back.  Despite the skewed positional distribution, I thought the numerous value picks, particularly on Day 3, made this a successful draft.

But what did the mainstream draftniks think of Bill Belichick's haul?  Surveying the interwebs from the aftermath of the draft, here's how other analysts graded out New England's 2015 draft class.

ESPN

Beth Hall-USA TODAY Sports

Mel Kiper Jr.: B-

The vanguard of draft gurus, Mel Kiper Jr., was extremely high on the Patriots after Day 1 due to the Malcom Brown selection.  However, the Pats ended up finishing in the bottom half of Kiper's final grades, though he praised New England for nabbing two of the draft's biggest steals in Brown and Trey Flowers:

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They did well overall, but I'm not sure why they didn't take at least one wide receiver or cornerback. Malcom Brown was an absolute steal at No. 32...he's really good and should be a part of the D-line rotation out of the gate. Jordan Richards is a smart, versatile fit in the secondary, which is exactly the kind of guy they like. I had him going lower, but if you think the guy can help and he's there for a team this good? Take him. Trey Flowers was another outstanding value down at No. 101 overall. I had him going off the board early in Round 2. That's a steal. I also like the [addition] of Tre' Jackson as O-line depth...The reach? That was Geneo Grissom, who I'm pretty sure would have been available later. Again, I wished they would have done more at CB and WR, and that drops them some, but you can't say they didn't get some good players, for a Super Bowl champ, no less.

"

Flowers seems to have flown under the radar, and it was interesting to see Kiper single him out as one of the Patriots' best picks.  The Arkansas defensive end doesn't possess ideal explosiveness for a prototypical edge-rusher, instead typically winning with strength.  Nonetheless, Football Outsiders' SackSEER projections were high on Flowers entering the draft, projecting him in the 72nd percentile among 2015 edge defenders.

Conversely, Grissom is someone who felt like a reach at the time, and though he might switch to linebacker and compete for the top backup role behind the formidable starting trio, 97th overall is rich for a player who is relatively raw and doesn't possess fluid movement ability.  Kiper was one of the few analysts who didn't criticize the Richards selection, though, so perhaps the Stanford safety will be a better scheme-specific fit for the Patriots.

CBSSports.com

Lynne Sladky/Associated Press

Rob Rang: B

The CBSSports.com and NFL Draft Scout analyst also praised the Malcom Brown selection and New England's fourth-round trio, suggesting that the latter group may end up yielding a trio of future starters:

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The defending Super Bowl champs had been rumored to be looking to trade out of the No. 32 overall pick, but when steady defensive tackle Malcom Brown slid to them, it was an easy choice to stand "Pat" and plug in the massive hole left by Vince Wilfork moving on. Brown isn't as flashy as last year's top pick Dominique Easley, but they should complement each other well. Of the remaining picks, the Patriots did best in the fourth round, where future starters may have been unearthed in tough-guy edge rusher Trey Flowers and nasty offensive linemen Shaq Mason and Tre' Jackson.

"

Of the three Rang mentions, Georgia Tech's Shaq Mason might be the most intriguing.  Mason is one of the more unusual prospects the Patriots have drafted, as the 6'1", 300-pounder is simultaneously one of the best run-blockers in this class and arguably its worst pass-blocker.  Such is the product of playing in Georgia Tech's anachronistic triple option offense, which means that Mason might very well take a redshirt season as he builds a foundation in pass protection.

While Mason does possess the mirroring instincts and agility that would suggest a smooth learning curve, history is not on his side.  Since Paul Johnson took over the Yellow Jackets program in 2008, Tech has seen just a single offensive lineman drafted—Andrew Gardner, a 2009 sixth-rounder who has spent his career as a utility backup.

For this reason, I was higher on the Tre' Jackson selection, despite Jackson's injury concerns.  If Jackson stays healthy, there aren't any translatability concerns, as the Florida State product would seem destined for a starting guard spot.  The same can't be said for Mason, who has a ways to go before the Pats can think about putting him in front of Tom Brady.

Sports Illustrated

Ezra Shaw/Getty Images

Chris Burke: B

The Patriots seem to have elicited a "meh" response from most mainstream analysts.  Burke suggested that the weekend draft proceedings were business as usual in Foxborough:

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Everyone knows what to expect from a Bill Belichick draft every year: at least a couple trades, several smart picks and one or two selections that completely fly in the face of conventional wisdom when it comes to player value. Belichick took safety Jordan Phillips at least two rounds before he would have drawn heavier interest, then repeated the trick with long snapper Joe Cardona in round 5.

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The Jordan Richards and Joe Cardona selections appear to have drawn the most confusion.  Richards is an understandable question mark—NFL Draft Scout had the safety pegged as a Round 5 or 6 pick—and the Pats probably don't deserve the benefit of the doubt. 

Richards' selection evokes memories of Tavon Wilson and Duron Harmon, two recent Day 2 safety picks who were also seen as major reaches.  Per Pro-Football-Reference.com, Wilson and Harmon have combined for eight Approximate Value (AV) over their entire careers, equivalent to what Vince Wilfork produced last season alone.

Cardona makes perfect sense if he can get an exemption from the requisite military service that would keep him out of the league for multiple seasons.  ESPN Boston's Mike Reiss suggested that Belichick may have purposely overdrafted Cardona in Round 5 to enhance his case for such an exemption.  If that fails, though, the Pats could have the same vacancy with which they entered the draft.

Rotoworld

Matthew Emmons-USA TODAY Sports

Evan Silva: C-

This was by far the harshest evaluation of New England's draft I could find on the web.  Though Silva praised some of New England's picks in the trenches, he suggests that the team left too many needs unattended, leaving the defending champs with more holes than they had when they last took the field in Glendale, Arizona:

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The defending Super Bowl champions made some goofy selections on guys with special teams ceilings, so I'll just focus on the positive first. Brown addressed a big need and has surprising versatility for a man his size. Jackson and Mason are butt kickers in the trenches and could have futures as interior-line starters. Derby drew very little pre-draft buzz, but was one of my favorite tight end prospects in a weak tight end draft. Watch Derby's game tape; he loves football and will play his rear end off. Flowers is a power end who I think could develop into an NFL regular. Richards, Wells, Grissom, Cardona, Roberts, and Dickson are the low-ceiling picks I didn't love. While I fully expect the Pats to be in the Lombardi hunt once again in 2015, my guess is it won't be because they tore up the 2015 draft.

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I was quite high on Marshall corner Darryl Roberts, so Silva's criticism comes as a bit of a surprise.  To be sure, Roberts alone will not make a significant dent for the unit, which still lacks top-end talent amid a morass of middling players.  But for a seventh-rounder, Roberts possesses nice length and ball skills, even if he'll need to refine his hands technique so that he does not draw penalties at an unpalatable level in the pros.

Conversely, Silva also likes the Derby selection more than any analyst I found.  A former quarterback and linebacker, Derby seems a bit redundant given New England's three-deep depth at tight end.  His size (6'4", 255 lbs) and athleticism in space are unteachable tools, but Derby's understanding of the tight end position rivals Shaq Mason's understanding of pass-blocking.  The Arkansas product thus feels like more of a practice-squad candidate whom the Pats will hope to stash away.

Fox Sports

David J. Phillip/Associated Press

Fox: A-

Whereas Silva derided New England's lack of playable depth at multiple positions, the analysts at Fox Sports argued that Malcom Brown plus the versatile athletes the Patriots targeted on Day 3 usurped some questionable decisions, particularly the Richards selection:

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Entering the draft with five picks in the top 101 selections, the defending champs plucked Vince Wilfork's replacement in Texas' Malcom Brown.  Then, New England took a gamble on safety Jordan Richards in the second round.  Adding versatile linebacker/pass rushers in Oklahoma's Geneo Grissom and Arkansas' Trey Flowers, they get Day 1 special teamers and add depth on defense.  With Dan Connolly leaving in free agency, they may have found his replacement in Florida State's Tre' Jackson, who played with center Bryan Stork in Tallahassee.  Another New England draft filled with smart, tough, physical football players.

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This seems a little rose-colored in my opinion—versatility should not be an adequate substitute for production.  While many of the Patriots prospects could slot into multiple spots, that won't matter unless they can harness their athleticism into real football skills, all while interpreting a difficult system (a la Jamie Collins).  There's more upside than Rotoworld's Silva suggested, but there's also plenty of bust potential.

However, though analysts like Kiper disagree, I do see Brown as a viable Wilfork replacement, even if the odds are mathematically against him turning into the All-Pro-type of talent Wilfork was in his prime.  The 6'2," 319-pound Brown is almost identical in size to the 6'2", 325-pound Wilfork, and both possess the versatility to play everything from the 0-technique nose to the 5-technique in three-man fronts. 

Brown has a long ways to go before becoming the talent that Wilfork is/was, but though he'll likely split snaps this year, his pick should be the signature takeaway from this draft class.

Final Grades

Jake Roth-USA TODAY Sports

Outlet	Grade
ESPN	B-
CBS	B
Sports Illustrated	B
Rotoworld	C-
Fox	A-
B/R	B+

I bolded the B+ grade I gave New England in my Sunday morning reaction piece, which came out a little higher than the average from the mainstream.  Part of that stemmed from my weighting Brown more than the other picks, as I believe his potential impact will wash away whatever busts inevitably result from this relatively high-variance group.

And in truth, the Patriots are fine batting at an above-average level every year.  New England has had considerable success developing linemen; among O- or D-linemen drafted in the first three rounds under Belichick, eight out of 13 have delivered at least 20 career AV, per PFR.  For all the Pats needs at corner and wide receiver, they could have done worse things than focus on an area where they are traditionally strong.

I don't know that the Pats will be able to overcome the holes in their secondary, given how tiny the margin for error is in January.  But I credit Belichick for getting creative and trying a different route to the Lombardi Trophy in 2015, knowing full well that the Patriots cannot hope to replicate last year's formula with vastly different personnel.