Carolina Panthers: Complete 2015 NFL Draft Wrap-Up and Analysis

The Carolina Panthers entered the 2015 draft with more picks than they had held in years, sitting on nine possible selections.  They exited it having only taken five players, having made two massive trades up the draft board to get their guys in the second and fourth rounds. 

The end result?  The Panthers were the second team to complete their 2015 draft class, being able to pack it up and go home before the end of the fifth round.

They did fill their three biggest needs, though not in the order most predicted.  They saved offensive tackle, their most pressing need, for their third pick.  Instead, they went with an athletic marvel who's capable of playing multiple positions with their selection of Shaq Thompson in the first round.  While I think that's a bit early for Thompson, there’s no doubting his athletic ability and versatility.

After Thompson, they filled needs at receiver (Devin Funchess), offensive tackle (Daryl Williams) and running back (Cameron Artis-Payne).  Add in sleeper linebacker David Mayo, and you have yourself a draft.

The most interesting aspect of the draft was the high-risk/high-reward strategy employed by general manager Dave Gettleman.  After years of being patient on draft day, Gettlemen went all-in, shooting up the draft board twice to fill the two biggest needs—receiver and tackle.

Essentially, the Panthers traded Rob Havenstein, Sean Mannion, Kwon Alexander, Bud Sasser and Dexter McDonald for Funchess and Williams.  Those are a lot of names to give up for two picks.  If Funchess and Williams turn out well, then Gettleman will look like a genius.  If either stumble, the sheer value given up to go get them will look foolish in retrospect.

It’s either putting all your eggs in very few baskets or showing faith and support for your scouts, depending on whether you want to look at it positively or negatively.  Any true evaluation will have to wait for the players to actually get some NFL experience under their belts, but we can take a quick look right now and try to see how the draft feels in the immediate aftermath.

The Selections

Well, there are your five new members of the Carolina Panthers.  Just based on their draft selection alone, you’d expect all five to make the 2015 roster, at the very least.  What roles might they have right off the bat?

Part of the reason I’m concerned about Shaq Thompson as the first-round pick is that I’m not sure he’s a day-one starter.  That’s not necessarily the end-all, be-all of evaluating a first-round selection, but it’s always disappointing if someone who goes that high ends up on the bench.

I’m not saying he won’t be a starter, just that I’m not going to pencil him in ahead of A.J. Klein just yet. 

Thompson projects eventually as a replacement for Thomas Davis, but he’s not a natural NFL linebacker; he’s undersized and needs to work on play recognition.  Even if he does beat out Klein for the job, he’s not going to have a massive impact in 2015.  The Panthers normally took Klein off the field in passing downs, going with just Luke Kuechly and Thomas Davis.  According to Pro Football Focus, Kuechly and Davis trumped 900 snaps each; Klein didn’t even reach 300.

In 2015, Thompson’s ceiling coming in is probably as a nickel linebacker-safety hybrid and covering tight ends.  Maybe he comes in as an extra strong safety in dime sets and battles Roman Harper for that role in a big nickel set.  There are ways defensive coordinator Sean McDermott can use him, but he doesn’t have a natural fit.

Second-round pick Devin Funchess, on the other hand, will be an instant starter in some role.  Jerricho Cotchery was the top slot receiver on the team last year, lining up there 70 percent of the time, according to Pro Football Focus.  Most of those snaps should go to Funchess, who probably will work best inside in the NFL thanks to his subpar speed for an outside receiver.

On passing downs, the Panthers will trot out Kelvin Benjamin (6’5”), Greg Olsen (6’5”), Funchess (6’4”) and Cotchery or Ted Ginn (little guys at 6’0” and 5’11”).  That’s a tough foursome for any secondary to cover; Cam Newton can chuck the ball high and let his skyscrapers get underneath it.

I don’t like that Funchess and Benjamin are roughly the same type of receiver—big and raw with a lot of skills and poor hands.  I prefer having different types of receivers in an offense rather than doubling down.  I also think the Panthers traded too much to go get him.  I think he’s the best player the Panthers took in this draft, though, including Thompson.

After the first two days of the draft, it seemed that Carolina’s 2015 offensive strategy would be to have Newton stand in the shotgun, scramble for his life and chuck the ball in the air toward a massive receiver.  Instead, they traded up in the fourth round for Daryl Williams, meaning we have our winner for most interesting position battle of this year’s minicamp: right tackle.

In this corner, we have rookie Daryl Williams, who struggled at the Senior Bowl but not during games that actually counted.  He allowed zero sacks last season and is absolutely massive, checking in at 6’5” and 327 pounds, with 35" arms. 

Williams was Pro Football Focus’ ninth-rated tackle in terms of pass blocking, but his lack of functional athleticism indicates he will have trouble with speed-rushers in the NFL.  His powerful run-blocking attributes might be enough to win him the job.

His competition includes:

• Last year’s initial starter, Nate Chandler, whose play earned him a contract extension before the 2014 season.  He then proceeded to have a very poor season in 2014, especially in pass protection, before tearing his meniscus and going on injured reserve.
• Last year’s savior, practice-squadder Mike Remmers.  Remmers came out of nowhere to have three positively graded games in a row, according to Pro Football Focus, coinciding with the beginning of the Panthers’ turnaround last season.  He ended up as a net negative for the season, thanks to poor performances in Weeks 16 and 17 and the divisional playoff game but showed more hope than Chandler did.  Either Remmers has fooled all the teams whose practice squads he’s bounced around in for years and is really quite a solid player...or he had a run of good luck.
• This year’s free-agent acquisition, Jonathan Martin.  As someone who covered the San Francisco 49ers last season, if Jonathan Martin is your starting right tackle, you need a new starting right tackle.

There’s no one there that Williams can’t beat out for the job, but Williams isn’t such a surefire prospect that you should rush out and buy his jersey immediately.  The best-case scenario for the Panthers involves him being ready from day one.  The worst-case scenario involves him not being ready, Remmers reverting to historic form and Chandler once again starting.  In that case, see the above “run and chuck” strategy for offense.

There’s a bit of a gap in talent before you get to the last two picks, David Mayo and Cameron Artis-Payne.

Artis-Payne at least has a presumed role as a backup to Jonathan Stewart; he’s not as good as the departed DeAngelo Williams, but he produced massive numbers in his one year as a starter at Auburn.  He doesn’t do anything special, but he’s definitely a solid running back.  He should compete with Fozzy Whitaker to get the most backup snaps behind Jonathan Stewart, and I like Artis-Payne in that battle. 

He led the SEC in rushing yards this season, but that’s at least in part because he led the SEC in carries, as well, so take his numbers with a grain of salt.  Still, he was good value at the end of the fifth round, and you can never have too many guys from Auburn named Cam in the backfield.

That leaves David Mayo, who was honestly not on my radar before the draft.  He was second in the nation in tackles and seems to project mostly as a special teams player in the NFL.  The fifth round is too early for a pick like that, but considering the Panthers didn’t have any picks after the fifth round, there’s a certain amount of logic there—if Gettleman just fell in love with his motor.

Best Pick: Daryl Williams

This is best pick and not best player, which matters.  Williams’ lack of athleticism makes him a lesser player to both Shaq Thompson and Devin Funchess, which probably goes toward explaining why Thompson and Funchess were drafted before Williams.

However, I have to give Gettlemen and his staff kudos for coming in on Day 3 of the draft and finding a potential starter.  They knew they had passed on tackles with their first two selections, letting players such as Jake Fisher and Donovan Smith pass them by.  They knew this was the biggest hole on the roster and likely knew that staying put on Day 3 wasn’t going to allow a tackle to drop to them.

Indeed, both T.J. Clemmings and Andrew Donnal went off the board in Round 4 before Carolina’s original pick.

They traded up and got the best remaining tackle on the board without major question marks.  La’El Collins ended up undrafted thanks to his ongoing legal issues, and Clemmings’ stress fracture scared teams off, leaving Williams as the best healthy tackle remaining.

Both times the Panthers traded up, actually, they filled their biggest need with the best remaining player at the position.  While I think they gave up too much to go up both times, they identified holes and targeted the best players to fill them.  That’s at least a valid strategy, even if it’s a risky one.

Runner-up: Devin Funchess, due to being the best player Carolina drafted and yet falling to Round 2.

Worst Pick: David Mayo

Andres Leighton/Associated Press

Again, I’m only now getting caught up on David Mayo, and he’s a great story.  He worked his butt off to get where he is today, living in a shed while toiling at Santa Monica Junior College before finally getting a scholarship to tiny Texas State.  With energy and a motor, he finished his career averaging 12.8 tackles a game by his senior season.  He has potential on special teams, if not much more than that.

Here’s the thing, though.  No one knew who David Mayo was coming into this draft.  He was not invited to the NFL Scouting Combine.  ESPN, NFL.com and Rotoworld all had no reports on his draftability.   

Gil Brandt of NFL.com attended Texas State’s Pro Day, mostly to scout cornerback Craig Mager, and called Mayo “a prospect who could develop into a very good special teams player…a possible priority free-agent pickup for a team following the draft.”  He was third fiddle in that report behind Mager and punter Will Johnson, who went undrafted.

The one site that did put a grade on Mayo before the draft was CBS.  It had him ranked 22nd among inside linebackers, and 422nd overall.  NFL Draft Scout called his high water mark a “priority free agent,” thanks in part to multiple knee injuries he suffered in college.

Now, these consensus draft boards should not be taken as gospel, especially when you’re looking toward the bottom of the draft board.  It’s conceivable, and entirely justifiable, that Carolina could have him ranked a couple hundred spots higher than CBS did, thanks in part to doing more work on him.  Players of his caliber are worth spending a draft pick on if a team wants to ensure it ends up with a particular player rather than compete for them in free agency.

Even if Mayo was 200 slots higher than he was ranked, however, that’s still a seventh-round grade.  The Panthers likely could have used their sixth- or seventh-round selections to ensure Mayo ended up on the team, but they didn’t have sixth- or seventh-round selections, thanks to spending them so they could trade up earlier in the draft. 

This is the downside to that ploy—the Panthers either had to risk Mayo getting away as a free agent or seventh-round pick or use a pick that is, charitably, a round too high for him.

He also plays the same position as they hope Shaq Thompson will, so it’s not even adding a player at a position of need like safety or defensive end.  I like the story of the player, and I see skills there in the little I’ve been able to watch film—but the value just isn't there.

Runner-up: Shaq Thompson, due to the fact that I actually quite like the other three picks and feel Thompson doesn’t have a position yet.

What the Experts Are Saying

Chuck Burton/Associated Press

How was Shaq Thompson received?

Here’s a quick whip-pan to see the instant reactions to this draft from around the league.

David Newton, ESPN.com

"

This draft was more about quality than quantity for Carolina, thus the trades to go from nine to five picks. The Panthers created competition where competition was needed and found players who can help on special teams. Their first two picks will create mismatches to make them better on both sides of the ball. Not getting a tackle who can play immediately on the left side is a risk unless Oher is the answer. But did Carolina improve? Yes.  Thumbs Up

"

Well, I don’t believe Michael Oher is the answer, unless the question is, "Which 2015 starter will the Panthers most be looking to replace in 2016."  

I would agree, however, that the draft is a "thumbs up."  Shaq Thompson, assuming he finds a position, is a mismatch, and there’s no one in the NFC South who is going to match up to the Panthers’ giant receivers.  They’re replicating what the Chicago Bears did a few years back with Brandon Marshall, Alshon Jeffery and Martellus Bennett.  That was a good offense in 2013, before Jay Cutler imploded. 

The Panthers are better today than they were 72 hours ago, and that’s what the draft’s all about.

Bryan Fischer, NFL.com

"

The skinny: There's no question that Thompson is talented, but he might have been a slight reach, given that most thought he would slip to the second round. He'll upgrade the defense on third down, as well as on special teams, and might even replace Thomas Davis, who, interestingly, announced the Panthers' pick at the draft. Funchess can develop into a monster opposite Kelvin Benjamin, but the Panthers paid a steep price for him, trading away a third-round pick to move up high enough to get a player who needs some refinement.

Bottom line: Cam Newton got some help in the passing game and Williams will boost the line but small class with not a ton of impactful players. Grade: C+

"

I’m definitely on the “Panthers paid too steep a price” bandwagon, but I’m not sure I agree with the overall conclusion.  The Panthers' first three picks could all be potential starters over the next couple seasons.  How many effective players was Fischer hoping to get out of the draft?  Sixth- and seventh-rounders are great because some of them do develop, but no one was calling Bene Benwikere an impact player at this time last year.

The Panthers essentially overbid on a silent auction.  They found something they really wanted and decided rather than take the chance of going home without them, they would put everything they had into grabbing Funchess and Williams, regardless of value.  They lost the trades, in other words, but brought home what they wanted. 

That same philosophy explains why they “overdrafted” Thompson and Mayo—if the Panthers really believed they were the best players who were going to be available, at some point, you just have to take them.  Playing chicken and sliding back to try to get them at the proper "value" has the risk of someone else taking them. 

The Panthers played it overly safe, but that’s not necessarily a bad thing.

Doug Farrar, Sports Illustrated

"

The Panthers surprised a lot of people by taking Washington linebacker Shaq Thompson in the first round, with Luke Kuechly and Thomas Davis already in the fold. But Thompson is a highly athletic player who covers very well and could even put up a few reps at running back. Second-round pick Devin Funchess is a big-bodied receiver who brings Kelvin Benjamin, last year's first-round pick to mind—clearly, general manager Dave Gettleman wants to give Cam Newton some very large targets. Oklahoma's Daryl Williams, taken in the third round, is a power blocker who fits this scheme. Texas State linebacker David Mayo could be a nice backup with special teams potential, and fifth-round back Cameron Artis-Payne out of Auburn is a thickly-built back who will need to up his urgency to break into Carolina's thin rotation of backs.  Grade: B-

"

I’ve gone this far without mentioning Thompson’s ability at running back.  In his senior season, Thompson carried the ball 61 times for 456 yards and two touchdowns in occasional spot-work as a running back.  His coach, Chris Peterson, told Sports Illustrated that Thompson’s best position is running back.

Thompson’s best position isn’t running back.  He doesn’t have the durability or speed to make it as only a running back.  Jonathan Stewart has nothing to fear there; Thompson only worked out as a defender for scouts this offseason. 

However, when the Panthers get around the goal line, I could see Thompson being used in some sort of special package; a jumbo set with Thompson, Newton and Artis-Payne in the backfield would give opposing defenses something to think about.

What's Left to Address?

Bob Leverone/Associated Press

Roman Harper still looks in line to start.

Safety

As of right now, Roman Harper is still the starting strong safety for the 2015 Carolina Panthers.  While Thompson will eat into some of those snaps as the Panthers cast around to find what position he’ll actually play, it would be nice to have an actual strong safety to replace Harper. 

Damian Parms from Florida Atlantic went undrafted and could be an interesting name to bring into camp.  Don’t ask him to cover downfield, but he’s very solid in run support and can handle coverage underneath.

Defensive End

With no replacement for Greg Hardy drafted, it looks like the Panthers will be going with either Kony Ealy or Wes Horton as a starter there in 2015.  Ealy, as last year’s second-round pick, would be the player they’d hope for, but he struggled mightily at times last season. 

Adding a rotational player could help.  Corey Crawford of Clemson went undrafted, and he has prototypical size at 6’5” and 283 pounds.  His tape doesn’t back that up, but that might be something that can be coached up.

Offensive Line Depth

Especially on the interior, the Panthers have some question marks in reserve.  The primary backup guards are Amini Silatolu and Fernando Velasco, and the primary backup center is Brian Folkerts.  Folkerts only had 41 snaps last season, and both Silatolu and Velasco graded out in the red, according to Pro Football Focus. 

Depth would be nice.  Antoine Everett of McNeese State might be the best guard who went undrafted.  He’s a big guy with solid technique and above-average foot quickness but doesn’t sustain his blocks spectacularly.  He may be worth a practice squad spot.

Final Grade

Associated Press

Devin Funchess thinks the Panthers are No. 1.

The Carolina Panthers made five picks.  On a strict thumbs-up, thumbs-down system, I liked three of them: Funchess, Williams and Artis-Payne.  None of them had me leaping from my seat or crowing about how Gettleman had suckered the league, but all three were very solid picks at the three largest positions of need.

Neither Thompson nor Mayo project as bad players; they were simply drafted too high.  It would be one thing if Gettlemen was drafting players who had no business being in the NFL, but that’s not what he’s doing—he’s just saying that he and the Panthers staff think certain players are better than what the consensus seems to think.  At a certain point, if you think a player is the best, you take them regardless of value.

Give them another thumbs up for filling their biggest needs.  The offense looks much improved from where it was before the draft, so that’s worth some credit.

The results of this draft aren't the most thrilling, but it’s solid enough.  With some more picks, I could see it ending up in the B range.  As it is, I have to go a bit lower. 

Grade: C+

Bryan Knowles is a featured columnist for Bleacher Report, covering the Carolina Panthers during the NFL Draft.  Follow him @BryKno on twitter.