Kentucky Derby Results 2015: Winner, Triple Crown Odds and Preakness Predictions

In today's fast-paced world, once a major event ends, all eyes turn to the next one. This year's Kentucky Derby is in the books, with American Pharoah taking the title ahead of Firing Line and Dortmund in a thrilling finish down the stretch. 

With American Pharoah's win in the books, all the focus turns toward May 16's Preakness Stakes and the allure of a Triple Crown. It's been 37 years since Affirmed won the Kentucky Derby, Preakness Stakes and Belmont Stakes in 1978. Several horses have come close, only to stumble in the Belmont Stakes.

Position	Horse	Lengths Back
Win	American Pharoah	-
Place	Firing Line	1
Show	Dortmund	3
4	Frosted	3 1/4
5	Danzig Moon	6 1/2
6	Materiality	7 3/4
7	Keen Ice	8 3/4
8	Mubtaahij	9 1/2
9	Itsaknockout	10 1/4
10	Carpe Diem	11
11	Frammento	12
12	Bolo	12 3/4
13	Mr. Z	15 1/2
14	Ocho Ocho Ocho	15 1/2
15	Far Right	15 3/4
16	War Story	19 1/4
17	Tencendur	35
18	Upstart	60 1/2

The most recent was California Chrome, who stormed his way to wins at Churchill Downs and Pimlico before finishing fourth at Belmont. It was the sixth time since 2002 that a horse won the first two legs of the Triple Crown but failed to finish it. 

Trying to predict the odds for a Triple Crown, my best guess will be that American Pharoah will come off the board around 10-1 to win the Preakness and Belmont to capture the Triple Crown. 

It's not a scientific metric, though just looking at recent history, it may not be far off. Per Odds Shark, odds started at 9-1 for any horse to win the Triple Crown, with California Chrome immediately dropping to 2-1 after he ran through the field at Churchill Downs. 

Brynn Anderson/Associated Press

American Pharoah will likely be going up against a better field, assuming Dortmund, Firing Line, Carpe Diem and others from the Kentucky Derby make the journey to Maryland, so his odds won't be as close to even money as last year's Derby champion. 

American Pharoah's win at Kentucky should have been easy to see coming. In addition to being the betting favorite, Cindy Brunson of the Pac-12 Network notes he's the third straight favorite to win at Churchill Downs:

But no pressure, American Pharoah: It's all just a breeze from here now that you've got those roses already on your back. One of the key differences going from the Kentucky Derby to the Preakness Stakes is distance.

The gap between running 1.25 miles (Kentucky Derby) and 1 3/16 miles (Preakness Stakes) doesn't sound like much in the scheme of things, but it's significant when talking about horses because it can completely change the way a jockey pushes in the race. 

A shorter distance allows those horses who struggle with stamina at Churchill Downs to rely more on their natural speed. 

There's also an argument to be made that the Preakness is a more telling race in terms of talent than the Kentucky Derby, per the New York Post (h/t Fox Sports):

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Each of the past 10 Preakness winners, and 13 of the past 14, went on to be named the three-year-old champion at the end of the year (including the filly Rachel Alexandra), though just seven of them won the Derby. Four of those Preakness champions were named Horse of the Year.

The conclusion is obvious: Though the result of the Derby can leave you scratching your head in wonder, the Preakness is almost always won by the best horse.

"

Trainer D. Wayne Lukas, who worked with Mr. Z in this year's Kentucky Derby, said in the same report that things tend to sort themselves out by Preakness time.

"We're sorting things out a bit more [by the Preakness]," said Lukas. "You had the preps for the Derby and then the Derby, and the pretenders fall by the wayside by the time we get here. Now we're at the point where you are getting the cream of the crop."

In other words, it's easier to separate the wheat from the chaff after the Kentucky Derby. There's so much build to that race, with all the qualifying and early-week workouts, that the Preakness is able to sneak up on you because of the quick turnaround and everyone coming down from the previous run. 

That's also part of the dilemma trying to handicap horses at Pimlico. A shorter period of rest makes it difficult to know the physical state horses are in. What worked at Churchill Downs may not be on the table anymore. 

Rob Carr/Getty Images

With all of that being said, Dortmund was my pick throughout the Kentucky Derby because of his massive size and long stride. He's got all the physical skills to win a Triple Crown in most years, nearly winning at Churchill Downs before, but especially the Preakness because jockey Martin Garcia knows the horse so well. 

Going back to Dortmund's win at the Santa Anita Derby, his total time and splits over the final eighth-mile and three-eights mile were excellent, via Kentucky Derby Contenders:

The Santa Anita Derby is closer in length (nine furlongs) to the Preakness Stakes that Dortmund's speed should have no problem playing up. He seemed to get tired down the stretch at Churchill Downs, so a shorter track figures to play better with the thoroughbred. 

Garcia has been riding Dortmund for all seven of his career races. That's not to be taken for granted this time of year, because he understands all of the horse's little intricacies and ticks. 

American Pharoah will presumably enter the race as the favorite, as he should. The three-year-old made history in more ways than one on Saturday, per ESPN Stats & Info:

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American Pharoah: 1st horse to ever win from post position 17 5th win in 6 lifetime starts (won each of last 5)

— ESPN Stats & Info (@ESPNStatsInfo) May 2, 2015"

Overcoming an outside starting position to win the Kentucky Derby by a full length speaks to American Pharoah's ability and Victor Espinoza's talent as a jockey. 

Speaking after the race, via The Courier-Journal, Espinoza said this was the first time he really let American Pharoah run:

Being able to close the way American Pharoah did at the Kentucky Derby makes him a tempting wager for the Preakness Stakes. A win in that race certainly wouldn't be a surprise, not at this stage given the roll he's been on. 

Dortmund is no slouch as the son of Big Brown, who won the first two Triple Crown legs in 2008, and winning the first six races of his career before the Kentucky Derby. 

Even with a potential Preakness field that includes American Pharoah and Stanford, who was scratched from the Kentucky Derby but is expected back at Pimlico, Dortmund stands out literally and figuratively as the horse to watch in the Triple Crown's second leg.