American Pharoah and Victor Espinoza: Predictions for Triple Crown and Preakness

In front of a record crowd of 170,513 cheering fans, American Pharoah and Victor Espinoza put on a performance for the ages on Saturday. The 5-2 post-time favorite barreled down on the finish line in a time of two minutes, 3.02 seconds.

Though they fell short of the record time set by Secretariat back in 1973, it could bode well for them moving forward as he may have some left in the tank for a run at the Preakness and the Triple Crown.

Last year, we saw Victor Espinoza ride California Chrome to a win in the Derby and then again in the Preakness before taking a swing at the first Triple Crown since Affirmed back in 1978.

Those two fell short in their quest for a Triple Crown, but what can we expect from AP and Espinoza in their attempt at history? We'll take a look in the sections below, but first, a quick look at the payouts from this year's Derby.

Kentucky Derby Payouts

Horse	Win	Place	Show
American Pharoah	$7.80	$5.80	$4.20
Firing Line	--	$8.40	$5.40
Dortmund	--	--	$4.20

Predictions for Preakness

This is arguably the best horse we've seen win a Kentucky Derby in a long, long time. The scary thing about Pharoah is that he's only trending upward. After posting a 100 Beyer number in the Grade 2 Rebel Stakes, per The Daily Racing Form, AP followed with a 105 Beyer in the Grade 1 Arkansas Derby.

Though we've yet to see any Beyer figures available for the Derby, I'd be willing to bet that we'll see something north of 105. Beyer numbers are a good indication of a horse's overall speed quality, and as we've seen in the past, speed plays really well at Pimlico, and especially in the Preakness (see the 2014 Preakness video below).

If we're being honest, the Preakness is an easier race. AP will get a little bit of a cutback in distance, running 1 3/16 miles as opposed to 1 1/4, and he'll do so against a smaller field—the Preakness maxes out at 14 entrants.

In addition to the cutback in distance, he'll face a little bit of a drop in the class of his competition. Last year, after winning the Derby, California Chrome faced just two Derby runners, those being Ride on Curlin and General A Rod, per HorseRacingNation.com. Those two went on to finish second and fourth, respectively, in the Preakness.

That said, there is a bit of a drawback to this growing trend. With numerous horses dropping out from the Derby field, we get some fresher legs. Right now, only two horses have committed to the Preakness, those being Divining Rod and Bodhisattva, per Preakness.com.

Divining Rod may prove to be Pharoah's biggest competition in the Preakness, and, as luck would have it, Divining Rod was barely the best horse in the only major race he's won (Grade 3 Lexington Stakes). As you can see in the video, it took a perfect trip and a huge surge down the stretch to log a two-length victory.

All that is to say that Pharoah will win the Preakness and look to bring home a Triple Crown.

Predictions for Triple Crown

I'm going to make my prediction up front: American Pharoah will win the Triple Crown. It sounds super cliche to just proclaim that this is THE best horse in a long time and how he will totally win the Triple Crown, but what fun is this if we aren't bold?

I love Pharoah in the Preakness, and the speed he showed in the Derby (see video below) will play extremely well there.

The Belmont is the real test though, and if history is any indication, the 1-1/2 mile distance is a major challenge. Beyond that, Pharoah will have to contend with an even more lively group of contenders who, for the most part, will have taken the normal three to four weeks off between the Belmont and their previous race.

Last year, General A Rod and Ride on Curlin were the only two horses—aside from Chrome—who ran in all three Triple Crown legs. Running in three races over a four-week period is a grueling test for any horse, but running up against fresh horses after running two races in the four weeks prior is damn near impossible.

Dating back to 2002 (War Emblem), we've seen six different Triple Crown threats, and the closest we've come was Smarty Jones in 2004—he came in second.

That said, this is a very special animal, and Bob Baffert, via ESPN.com's Lane Gold, summed things up very well with his comments following the Derby.

AP has a solid pedigree for distance—sired by Pioneerof the Nile—and his grandsire, Empire Maker, won the Belmont back in 2003 after finishing second in the Kentucky Derby. 

Stick with American Pharoah in the Preakness, and be a team player and stay on board for the Belmont, too!

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