Mayweather vs. Pacquiao 2015: Final Odds and Pick for Championship Superfight
The day that many boxing fans never thought would come has arrived. Late Saturday night, Manny Pacquiao and Floyd Mayweather Jr. will look across the ring and eventually throw fists at each other's face.
It will be a collision of an all-time great defense and one of the fiercest offenses in boxing today. It will generate millions upon millions of dollars. Hopefully, it will provide fans with a fight that comes close to living up to the hype that's surrounded the matchup.
The years and years of buildup have turned this one fight into the kind of event that transcends the sport. Even folks who don't know a jab from an uppercut are talking about this fight, and celebrities from all arenas have made their own predictions as to who will win.
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Here's what the odds from Odds Shark look like just a few hours before fight night. Mayweather still remains the slight favorite, but it's clear that support for Pacquiao continues to grow.
| Mayweather | 20-57 (-285) | 1-2 (-200) |
| Pacquiao | 9-4 (+225) | 8-5 (+160) |
Here's a look at the key for each fighter to find victory as well as a prediction for how the fight will play out.
Manny Pacquiao: Body Shots on the Ropes
A couple of fighters have had success against the undefeated Mayweather: Miguel Cotto and Marcos Maidana come to mind. And they have one thing in common: They cut off the ring and forced Mayweather to fight in a phone booth.
Getting the fight to close quarters will also be a key to victory for Pac-Man.
The problem is just how difficult it is to get Mayweather to the ropes and prevent him from tying up once he gets there. The 13:27 mark in this video of Mayweather's rematch with Maidana is a perfect example, as Chino works to back him into the ropes, but Money clinches up before the Argentine can do any damage.
In theory, the difference between Pacquiao and Maidana is the level of athleticism each fighter has exhibited. Pac-Man is known for his quickness and combinations. When he gets his opponent to the ropes, he needs to unleash quick combinations to the body to maximize his opportunities.
Ricky Hatton—who also gave Mayweather some issues in his 2007 bout with the champion—cited Pacquiao's speed and quickness as an important factor for him, per ESPN's Dan Rafael:
"I think the reason I gave Floyd so much trouble early on is I moved in quick on him and Manny is faster than me. If Manny goes in and out, in and out, like he did with Oscar and lands the punches and gets out he will give Floyd problems. But Floyd always seems to find a way no matter who he fights.
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Just how much quickness the 36-year-old has left in his legs remains to be seen. The welterweight hasn't scored a TKO victory since 2009 against Cotto. However, if the Freddie Roach-trained fighter still has enough to bounce in and out of range along the ropes, he can do some damage early on to put the pressure on Money and get him out of his element.
Floyd Mayweather: Allow the Fight to Come to Him
There's a reason that Mayweather enters this bout as the favorite. He's the best pure boxer in the sport. No one is better at the art of defense and counterpunching.
Money is at his best when he takes the center of the ring and leans forward to create a false sense of space, only to retreat and land his lead right at the sight of a jab from his opponent. As long as Mayweather finds someone to throw first, he's in business.
What he doesn't want to do is get into a slugfest with Pac-Man. Yet, it would appear that aggression might be part of his strategy. "Mayweather's not gonna just run from Manny. He's gonna try to fight him, and I believe that's what he trained for," Shane Mosley said, via Dino Maragay of Philstar.com.
Mosley has special insight into both fighters. He fought and lost to both fighters in the twilight of his career. Yet, he thinks that Mayweather's decision to go aggressive might be detrimental.
"Mayweather will try to exchange with Pacquiao, but it could be his downfall especially if the exchanges are too long. He should try to fight smart instead."
Many would argue that Pacquiao's southpaw style is enough to throw off Money's ability to counter; however, Adonis Durado illustrates how Mayweather can still continue to batter the Filipino with counters off his left-handed attack:
Just how often Mayweather decides to initiate and engage will be a storyline to watch as the fight progresses. Ideally, he will sit on his back foot, be his usual evasive self and make adjustments as he needs to throughout the fight.
The Pick
Mayweather has seen 47 opponents in his professional career. None has bested him. Even against a pound-for-pound mainstay like Pacquiao, that's a difficult track record to pick against.
Pacquiao has his ways to win this fight. If he can string together combinations, he's going to eventually break down the vaunted Mayweather defense. Pacing those efforts through the course of a 12-round fight could earn him a decision.
But in the end, it's much easier to envision a decision victory for Mayweather.
Pacquiao will still challenge Money. The early rounds should be especially interesting while Mayweather looks to figure out the timing of his opponent.
No one is better at making adjustments on the fly than Mayweather, though. Expect him to become more and more effective as the fight wears on.
Mayweather by decision.
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