New England Patriots: Complete 2015 NFL Draft Wrap-Up and Analysis

Because of their annual contender status, the New England Patriots are typically one of the toughest rosters in the NFL for rookies to crack.  But that didn't stop Bill Belichick and the front office from surprisingly selecting 11 players, second-most in the league and the Pats' highest selection total since the 12 players they took in 2010.

New England's 11-man class belied an unmistakable theme: Belichick wants the 2015 Patriots to be faster and beefier in the trenches.  First-round selection Malcom Brown should go down as the crown jewel of this class, a versatile defensive tackle capable of eventually turning into the same three-down havoc-wreaker that Vince Wilfork was in his prime.  Overall, the Pats spent five of their first six picks on linemen, while the sixth, strong safety Jordan Richards, profiles as a box safety who could play a hybrid safety/linebacker role. 

While there were some questionable overdrafts like Richards, Geneo Grissom and Joe Cardona, the Pats largely extracted a significant amount of value from this class.  In maneuvering around with two trade downs, Belichick was able to pick up two extra selections while still landing value picks at positions of need like Tre' Jackson and Trey Flowers.

That does not mean the draft went perfectly (which it never does, of course).  Fans will decry the front office's ostensible negligence at cornerback, wide receiver and running back, three spots I targeted on my need positions big board before the draft.  For a dissection all the highs and lows of the three-day draft and what they mean for the 2015 Patriots, read on for your complete New England draft wrap-up.

The Selections

Brown is the star of this group, and we'll have more in-depth analysis on him later.  With the ability to play everything from the 5-technique into the 0-tech nose, Brown is the type of uber-versatile interior defensive lineman around whom Belichick has always built his defense.  No, he won't become an All-Pro overnight, but it's hard to envision a better foundational piece the Pats could have come away with this weekend.

Besides Brown, a pair of Day 3 picks might be in the best positions to contribute immediately.  Florida State guard Tre' Jackson likely would have been off the board by Round 2 if not for lingering knee woes that caused him to fail multiple physicals, per Bleacher Report's Matt Miller.  But the 6'4", 330-pound mauler is as strong and talented as any guard in this class, and if his knee really is 100 percent like he insists, he's a steal who should start from Day 1 at right or left guard.

The other potential immediate contributor in my opinion is Marshall's Darryl Roberts, a seventh-round corner who is one of my favorite sleepers.  Roberts possesses a rare combination of excellent agility and long arms, allowing him to engulf smaller slot receivers.  Though he was not invited to the scouting combine, his absurd 6.66-second three-cone drill time at his pro day would have been second-best among all corners at Indy.  He should compete for Kyle Arrington's role in the slot right away, particularly if the Pats retain press principles.

Richards and Grissom characterized an unusual Day 2, as neither was really on the radar or at positions of need.  But both are team captains with versatile skill sets and high football intelligence.  The Day 2 selections have significant holes in their game—Richards' coverage instincts are a liability, while Grissom lacks the speed to win around the edge—but they are also future-minded picks whose greatest defensive contributions should come in 2016 and beyond.

The rest of the Day 3 picks were mostly hyper-athletic prospects without clear positions.  Trey Flowers and Shaq Mason are value picks who are blocked at their positions but could develop into starters in due time.  The best story of the day may have been Joe Cardona, the long snapper from Navy, where Belichick has strong familial connections.  Cardona might actually be unavailable depending on service requirements, which could leave the long snapper spot a position of need with 2014 snapper Danny Aiken still unsigned.

Best Pick: Malcom Brown, DT, Texas

The Patriots appeared ready to trade out of Round 1 and stockpile Day 2 picks, as I suspected they would do before the draft.  But when versatile Texas defensive tackle Malcom Brown fell to the 32nd pick, the Pats received a potential Vince Wilfork successor and one of the best values of the first round.

Expecting Brown to produce immediately at a 2011 Wilfork-type of level is foolhardy, but the ex-Longhorn has the same well-rounded skill set to eventually wreak havoc on all three downs.  At 6'2" and 319 pounds, Brown demonstrates excellent power and control to two-gap from traditional 3-4 spots like the 0-technique (head up over center) and 5-tech (head up over tackle), while also showing flashes of quickness to rush the passer from the 3-tech spot.

Most importantly, Brown's selection enables the Patriots to build around their front seven (a development I've talked about at greater length).  New England appeared ready to forge forward with that plan based on its Day 2 selections, of course, but in Brown and Dominique Easley, the Pats boast an extremely exciting interior duo with complementary skill sets.  In Easley, Brown and Chandler Jones, the Pats have three defensive linemen who can cover every technique from the 0- to the wide-9.

Brown is also the draft pick most ready to contribute in 2015, a fact not lost on Patriots fans.  Though he figures to start out his career in a rotation with Sealver Siliga and Alan Branch, expect the first-team All-American to become a foundational defensive piece within the next few seasons.  I gave Brown an A in my initial reaction piece, and there hasn't been any reason to change that snap reaction.

Final Grade: A

Worst Pick: Jordan Richards

Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports

As much value as the Pats extracted from many of their picks, no player stood out as a greater reach than Jordan Richards.  While the Stanford captain does possess the size, leadership and tackling fundamentals the Pats seek from their defensive backs, some like SI.com's Chris Burke suggested that New England could've waited a few rounds for Richards:

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Like a team captain on Family Feud ignoring all his teammates suggestions while trying to steal the board, Bill Belichick cares not for the general consensus. Time and again, he's gone off the beaten path during the draft to take a player several rounds above his perceived value. Richards got the nod this year, at the end of Round 2. He was a solid player for Stanford, yet little more than a late Day 3 prospect by most accounts.

"

Overdrafting in comparison to mainstream media projections isn't unusual for the Patriots (or many teams, for that matter).  The bigger question is not necessarily Richards himself, who has the ball skills and lateral agility to improve his coverage liabilities, but why the Pats necessarily needed another box safety with Patrick Chung and Tavon Wilson on the roster.

Neither Chung nor Wilson is a surefire long-term solution, though the former did receive an extension through 2017 after his unexpectedly productive 2014 campaign.  But like Chung, Richards has a long way to go in coverage, demonstrating poor instincts and balance, often drawing penalties because he defaults to grabbing the receiver when beaten. 

Again, part of that could be schematic, and if Richards is simply asked to cover underneath zones as a hybrid safety/linebacker type, that could hide some of those issues.  Still, given the combination of poor value and unclear personnel fit, the Stanford product will have observers questioning his selection until he proves otherwise.

Final Grade: C-

What the Experts Are Saying

Steven Senne/Associated Press

Bill Barnwell: Brown Least Confusing Round 1 Pick

I hinted earlier that Malcom Brown represented a terrific coup at No. 32, and Grantland's Bill Barnwell agreed with that sentiment, marveling at how a top-20 talent at a position of need fell into New England's laps:

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How did the Patriots end up getting exactly what they needed without budging an inch? Despite rumors they were going to deal their pick at the end of the first round to the Texans, Bill Belichick’s team somehow came away with a player it could have justified grabbing 15 spots earlier.

The 319-pound Brown can’t expect to play like Wilfork overnight, but he has the frame to hold up as a two-gapping tackle if Belichick wants to use him that way. Brown was regarded as arguably the best run defender in this class, and Belichick will be able to use him for 40 snaps a game to clog up the interior of the defense while Jamie Collins and Jerod Mayo run free behind him...Given pre-draft projections and analysis of where the Patriots are weakest, though, it sure seems like a logical one.

"

The chaos that unfolded in the latter half of the first round saw not just Brown, but several other potential value picks slip to New England.  Though the likes of La'el Collins and Randy Gregory were untouchable due to off-field red flags, the Pats could have done well had they settled for someone like Landon Collins or Eddie Goldman.  With the draft falling almost perfectly in line with New England's plans to fortify the box, it's no wonder the Patriots apparently reneged on their agreed trade with the Texans.

One more thing: Brown's selection could be critical towards shoring up what was arguably New England's biggest defensive weakness last season.  Based on Football Outsiders' Adjusted Line Yards metric, the Pats were the worst short-yardage defense in the league last year, allowing opponents to convert on 81 percent of third or fourth downs with two or fewer yards to go.  Losing Wilfork certainly wasn't going to improve that, so perhaps Brown's pro-ready run defense can help solidify that weak spot.

Frank Schwab: Patriots Day 2 Losers

In Day 2 draft analyses, the Patriots were largely left out of the limelight, apart from a few blurbs questioning the Richards selection.  Yahoo's Frank Schwab was one of the few mainstream analysts who labeled the Patriots losers from Friday's draft proceedings, though he hedged by admitting that Belichick undoubtedly has a plan for his unorthodox selections:

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New England picked Stanford safety Jordan Richards at the end of the second round. Nobody seemed to know what to say because it didn't seem that anyone figured Richards would be picked before Day 3 of the draft. It seemed like a major reach, maybe by a few rounds, for the Patriots to take him in the second. "We have yet to find an expert projecting him as a second-round pick," CSNNE's Tom Curran wrote.

All that said, it's best to just assume New England knows something nobody else does...Richards does seem to fit what they do well, a productive strong safety who is lauded for his football smarts. Sounds like a good fit for the Patriots. It was an odd pick at that time, but it's probably best to bet that it'll work out for New England.

"

The Pats get the benefit of the doubt because of their annual double-digit win production, but in truth, New England is not a particularly great drafting team.  Measures of recent draft success from National Football Post's Tony Villiotti have portrayed the Pats as a below-average draft team over the past decade based on expected return.  

Villiotti's specific measure only counts the number of starts, so it doesn't account for the kind of impact these starters have made or the fact that the Pats are typically a well-rounded team without many starting spots available.  The real value from Day 2 may have been the extra pick the Pats acquired, which allowed them tons of Day 3 flexibility, setting the stage for some Saturday steals.

Andy Benoit: Pats Puzzling

Most of the analysis you'll see on the interwebs will praise the Patriots because of their track record under Belichick.  Schwab's above analysis includes such a caveat.  But the MMQB's Andy Benoit, one of the most insightful tape junkies around who writes with the same self-assured objectivity he brings to film study, seems to believe that the Pats poorly allocated their 11 picks:

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I think the Patriots’ draft will be blindly praised because that’s the standard protocol for analyzing any Patriots draft. I also think it’s hard to understand how the Patriots could go defense with all four of their Thursday/Friday selections and yet manage to avoid addressing their glaring need at cornerback.

"

As I've hinted in the above analysis, the Patriots are far from infallible.  Although I'm a fan of Roberts in the seventh round, cornerback will undoubtedly see the biggest dropoff among all units on the roster next season.  Belichick clearly attempted to compensate for this by strengthening everything around the DBs, but regardless of the surrounding talent, subpar cornerback play greatly reduces any defense's margin for error.

I won't quibble with Benoit's criticism of the personnel distribution, which was undeniably slanted.  But it's worth noting that the Pats did accomplish Robert Kraft's stated goal of having as many picks as possible, including a savvy trade with the Cleveland Browns that allowed them to balance out their Day 3 pick distribution.  We won't know if the intended agenda was the correct one, but it's fair to suggest that the Patriots executed their game plan.

What's Left to Address

Steven Senne/Associated Press

The Patriots went trench-crazy in an attempt to beef up their offensive and defensive lines, using seven of their 11 picks on linemen.  Consequently, these three positions still stand out as holes on this roster:

1. Cornerback

Roberts adds more uncertain depth to a position littered with replacement-level veterans and unproven youngsters.  The Patriots certainly don't lack quantity here, but with a weird amalgamation of skill sets, there's also not much in the way of coherence to how they constructed this unit.

In truth, any plans likely went out the window along with Darrelle Revis and Brandon Browner.  Whether you believe most strongly in Malcolm Butler, Logan Ryan or someone else, none can justifiably call himself a centerpiece at this point.  Perhaps someone separates himself in training camp, but for now, no one really gives the coaching staff any reason to steer toward a certain kind of coverage.

Consequently, it feels as though this is going to resemble the offensive line from last September, at least early in the 2015 campaign.  Just as the O-line stabilized after shuffling through various personnel, the corners might shuttle on and off the field in the early going.  Belichick will eventually find a combination that is passable, as he usually does, but the growing pains might be ugly.

2. Running Back

This isn't necessarily a big need, depending on how you feel about unproven youngsters like Jonas Gray, Tyler Gaffney, James White and Travaris Cadet.  That quartet possesses varying degrees of upside, and given New England's penchant for relying on a cheap committee in the backfield, Belichick may have simply been satisfied with the cost-controlled depth at the position.

Still, in a particularly deep class, the Pats could have waited until Day 3 and still come away with a back more talented than any on their current roster.  David Cobb and Mike Davis were high-floor power backs who could have become eventual replacements for LeGarrette Blount, while explosive Jay Ajayi fell to Round 5 amid knee concerns.

But the Pats bit on none of those options, leaving them with the same backfield with which they entered the weekend.  For now, only White is under contract beyond 2016, and the nominal starter Blount will be an unrestricted free agent next spring.  The 2015 core might be fine, but unless a long-term solution breaks through this season, running back figures to be a need again at this time next year.

3. Wide Receiver

The Patriots have now drafted exactly one receiver from two of the deepest classes in recent memory, and 2014 seventh-rounder Jeremy Gallon never made it past the summer.  Considering that New England relied heavily upon the rookie trio of Aaron Dobson, Kenbrell Thompkins and Josh Boyce in 2013, that realization must be painful for the front office.

New England did supplement the position with a pair of undrafted free agents in Cal's Chris Harper and converted Michigan quarterback Devin Gardner, per NEPatriotsDraft.com.  Adding a receiver might have been more of a luxury pick, but if the Pats wanted to diversify their passing game, another target for Tom Brady might have been nice.

Instead, the Pats added only raw Arkansas tight end A.J. Derby, leaving Brady with largely the same receiving corps he worked with last year.  That won't be a problem if Rob Gronkowski is healthy the whole year again, but apart from the All-Pro tight end, the Pats are largely relying on supplementary role players to prop up the passing offense.

Final Grade

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The Malcom Brown selection gets the greatest weight, as he's the type of impactful prospect who could represent a foundational piece on the defensive line.  Maybe that's placing too great an expectation on the 21-year-old, but given his high floor and skill set, it's hard to imagine a player who could have been a better fit.

Even if you didn't like New England's Day 2 selections of Richards and Grissom, trading away the 96th pick to Cleveland netted excellent value.  Based on Chase Stuart's draft pick value calculator, the Pats acquired 143 cents on the dollar in that trade, getting an average return of 8.2 Approximate Value, compared to the 5.8 AV they gave to the Browns.

That trade ended up landing them a potential starting guard in Jackson at No. 111, while New England was also able to flip the Browns' fifth-rounder for two extra picks from the Green Bay Packers.  Those turned into Cardona and Roberts.  Regardless of how these prospects pan out, these are the types of mathematical edges that Belichick thrives on, the victories at the margins that keep the Patriots ahead of the rest of the pack.

Good math work aside, the Pats also unearthed some nice high-upside sleepers after surprising on Friday with Richards and Grissom.  Flowers and Mason are starting-caliber players with a specific plus skill set—the former is already a powerful edge-setter, while the latter is an excellent run-blocker—and should become niche contributors at worse, potentially more depending on how they respond to coaching.

This might not be the same home run draft that the 2010 class was, but that's also likely the best draft class Belichick has ever produced.  Given the high quantity of picks, there's a chance 2015 could end up more like 2003 or 2005, which produced a few busts but also a couple of long-term starters and one All-Pro level talent.  That's a process the Patriots will happily repeat every year, and ultimately, fans should be relatively pleased with the nice blend of short-term impact and long-term value.

Grade: B+