Kentucky Derby 2015 Post Positions: Horse Odds, Prize Money Predictions and More

Saturday sees the 141st running of the Kentucky Derby take center stage at Churchill Downs, as the most exciting two minutes in sports returns.

As previous Kentucky Derbies have taught us only too well, a horse's talent can boil down to insignificance if lady luck isn't on its side, and when the 2015 race's post positions were announced, some trainers and owners were left cursing their luck.

Historically speaking, the outside posts are a recipe for success in Louisville although last year's winner, California Chrome, blitzed the competition from No. 5. Here's a look how this year's field will line up:

No.	Post	Horse	Jockey	Trainer	Odds
1	2	Ocho Ocho Ocho	Elvis Trujillo	Jim Cassidy	25-1
2	3	Carpe Diem	John Velazquez	Todd Pletcher	8-1
3	4	Materiality	Javier Castellano	Todd Pletcher	16-1
4	5	Tencendur	Manny Franco	George Weaver	50-1
5	6	Danzig Moon	Julien Leparoux	Mark Casse	33-1
6	7	Mubtaahij	Christophe Soumillon	Mike de Kock	12-1
7		El Kabeir	Calvin Borel		SCR
8	8	Dortmund	Martin Garcia	Bob Baffert	18-5
9	9	Bolo	Rafael Bejarano	Carla Gaines	40-1
10	10	Firing Line	Gary Stevens	Simon Callaghan	12-1
11		Stanford	Florent Geroux		SCR
12		International Star	Miguel Mena		SCR
13	11	Itsaknockout	Luis Saez	Todd Pletcher	33-1
14	12	Keen Ice	Kent Desormeaux	Dale Romans	40-1
15	13	Frosted	Joel Rosario	Kiaran McLaughlin	16-1
16	14	War Story	Joe Talamo	Tom Amoss	50-1
17	15	Mr. Z	Ramon Vazquez	D. Wayne Lukas	50-1
18	16	American Pharoah	Victor Espinoza	Bob Baffert	13-5
19	17	Upstart	Jose Ortiz	Rick Violette Jr.	25-1
20	18	Far Right	Mike Smith	Ron Moquett	40-1
21	19	Frammento	Corey Nakatani	Nick Zito	66-1

American Pharoah to Break Post 17 Hoodoo

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American Pharoah is the overwhelming favorite to be crowned champion at the 2015 Kentucky Derby and take home the lion's share of the $2 million purse, but he'll have to break a race-old record if he's to do so.

As Mark Singelais of the (Albany, New York) Times Union revealed, no horse has ever won the Kentucky Derby from post No. 17:

Still, an outside post will be good news for the three-year-old, as inside rails can see horse's progress compromised at the frantic start.

Plus, jockey Victor Espinoza, who won last year's race on California Chrome, has the necessary experience to see American Pharoah across the line.

Just how much luck will the favorite need, though? He's quite simply an outstanding horse.

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American Pharoah has won his last four races with consummate ease, including an eight-length victory at the Arkansas Derby.

He's been looking pretty handy in training, too, with TVG's Joaquin Jaime reporting that he scorched through five furlongs in just 58 seconds in practice:

And even when Churchill Downs' Joe Kristufek sat down with Bleacher Report to discuss potential Kentucky Derby winners, he couldn't find a weakness in American Pharoah:

That much has got owner Ahmed Zayat and trainer Bob Baffert feeling confident, but most importantly, it's got their counterparts running scared.

Dale Romans, who trains post No. 13's Keen Ice, said that American Pharoah is the best horse he's ever seen in Zayat's stable and that he'd be shocked if he didn't compete for the crown—per Jerry Bossert of New York Daily News:

"

He's a freak. He's [Zayat] had some good horses but by far he was the best we've ever seen. There's nothing that horse can do that's positive that can surprise me, whether he breaks the track record or wins by 10. None of that stuff would surprise me. What would surprise me is if he doesn't run well.

"

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Should American Pharoah live up to his tag and indeed put in a good performance, he'll win $1.24 million, as TheTripleCrown.com's payout information shows: 

Total Purse	Winner's Purse	Runner-Up Purse	Third-Place Purse	Fourth-Place Purse	Fifth-Place Purse
$2 million	$1.24 million	$400,000	$200,000	$100,000	$60,000

American Pharoah's pace is seamless, and if he gets off to a flying start at Churchill Downs, it could be race over for his rivals.

El Kabeir Scratched from Derby

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It's not all good news for the Zayat team, though, as trainer John Terranova told WLKY.com that No. 7 post horse El Kabeir withdrew on Friday with a suspected abscess.

That means 19 horses will contest in the 20-horse race, with post No. 1 left open—as The Buffalo News' Gene Kershner confirmed:

El Kabeir's absence will push the early posters up a place and therefore give them a touch more freedom with the 30-1 horse out of the picture.

Plus, as with any Kentucky Derby, there’s bound to be a surprise horse contesting at the front of the pack.

Firing Line is a 12-1 outsider to win Saturday's race, and starting from post No. 10 will do his chances the world of good.

The middle of the pack is where the most Kentucky Derby champions have been crowned from, and if you add Firing Line's recent success to that mix, he looks like a really good proposition.

Andy Lyons/Getty Images

Second favorite Dortmund is looking good in post No. 8 while Upstart at No. 18 has been showing promising form in training.

Either way, it's going to be a quite emphatic race with thrills, spills and potentially a shock winner.

However, with American Pharoah in such outstanding form, it would take a brave man to bet his bottom dollar against him.