Kentucky Derby 2015 Predictions: Final Picks and Race-Day Field Odds

The Kentucky Derby is widely known as the most exciting two minutes in sport, and as we approach 2015’s eagerly anticipated instalment, it doesn’t look like the heart-stopping drama is going anywhere.

Such is the beauty of the 10-furlong race that just getting a starting berth puts a horse in contention, with poor starts, congestion and slack finishes boiling favourite tags down to insignificance in past races.

American Pharaoh is the overwhelming favourite to scoop the $1.24 million share of the $2 million prize fund, but as he’s got to negotiate a very talented field on Saturday, nothing is concrete.

Here’s a look at the full Kentucky Derby lineup, race odds and predictions, plus an in-depth look at two horses that could spoil American Pharaoh’s afternoon.

No.	Post	Horse	Jockey	Trainer	Odds
1	2	Ocho Ocho Ocho	Elvis Trujillo	Jim Cassidy	25-1
2	3	Carpe Diem	John Velazquez	Todd Pletcher	8-1
3	4	Materiality	Javier Castellano	Todd Pletcher	16-1
4	5	Tencendur	Manny Franco	George Weaver	50-1
5	6	Danzig Moon	Julien Leparoux	Mark Casse	33-1
6	7	Mubtaahij	Christophe Soumillon	Mike de Kock	12-1
7		El Kabeir	Calvin Borel		SCR
8	8	Dortmund	Martin Garcia	Bob Baffert	18-5
9	9	Bolo	Rafael Bejarano	Carla Gaines	40-1
10	10	Firing Line	Gary Stevens	Simon Callaghan	12-1
11		Stanford	Florent Geroux		SCR
12		International Star	Miguel Mena		SCR
13	11	Itsaknockout	Luis Saez	Todd Pletcher	33-1
14	12	Keen Ice	Kent Desormeaux	Dale Romans	40-1
15	13	Frosted	Joel Rosario	Kiaran McLaughlin	16-1
16	14	War Story	Joe Talamo	Tom Amoss	50-1
17	15	Mr. Z	Ramon Vazquez	D. Wayne Lukas	50-1
18	16	American Pharoah	Victor Espinoza	Bob Baffert	13-5
19	17	Upstart	Jose Ortiz	Rick Violette Jr.	25-1
20	18	Far Right	Mike Smith	Ron Moquett	40-1
21	19	Frammento	Corey Nakatani	Nick Zito	66-1

Dortmund to be Bob Baffert’s Prize Stallion

Rob Carr/Getty Images

Trainer Bob Baffert has two of the finest colts running in Saturday’s Kentucky Derby: favorite American Pharaoh and second favourite Dortmund.

While it’s difficult to look beyond the 13-5 American Pharaoh, who has won each of his last four races in succession with ease, Dortmund has proved a popular pick for many punters.

Plus, it’s safe to say that his recent record isn’t exactly bad, either.

As Bleacher Report UK revealed, Dortmund has won his last six races on the spin, pipping Kentucky rival Firing Line in two of the victories:

In the hectic start of the Derby, Dortmund will have a distinct advantage: his size.

Weighing in at 1,280 lbs, the colt will start the race in post No. 8, from which there have been two victors in the last nine races—per About.com—and he has the ability to sweep others aside in the pursuit of the front spot.

American Pharaoh, meanwhile, needs to defy history to be crowned champion, as no horse has ever won the Kentucky Derby from the 17th post—as journalist Mark Singelais revealed:

And while Churchill Downs’ Joe Kristufek admits that American Pharaoh deserves his tag, he exclusively told Bleacher Report that Dortmund comes into the race with credentials of a champion:

If Dortmund manages to bully his way out of the traps quickly, then he’ll prove very hard to catch.

However, he needs to hope that American Pharaoh gets caught up in the melee at 17, as his stablemate could easily outrun him on a clear ride.

Firing Line in Pole Position

Andy Lyons/Getty Images

Whenever the Kentucky Derby post draw is made, trainers and owners alike hope that their horses will take a berth away from the inside rail, with post No. 10 the most desirable of the lot.

Not only because the middle of the pack is perfect for fast starters, but also because the 10th post has provided more Kentucky Derby winners than any other.

So, when Firing Line gets into the 10th trap on Saturday, he’ll have a certain amount of expectation on his head.

However, that’s nothing that the in-form thoroughbred can’t justify.

Andy Lyons/Getty Images

Firing Line’s worst finish in his last five races is second—failing to catch Dortmund on two occasions, as previously mentioned—and he romped to a stunning victory at the Sunland Derby last time out.

Journalist Mike Wilkening reflected on how the horse will be one of the last to load at the Kentucky Derby, providing a psychological advantage from the off:

With experienced jockey Gary Stevens on his back, Firing Line is hoping to strike once again, and trainer Simon Callaghan recently spoke with Xpressbet via YouTube, saying he’s full of confidence:

The 12-1 shot has shows in past races that he can mix with the very best—such as Dortmund—and his ability to get off to fast starts could prove crucial.

Firing Line is fresh from a month of preparation and will be raring to go in Louisville. While the likes of Dortmund and American Pharaoh are the bookmakers’ favourites, Firing Line could be the dark horse of this year’s race.