Kentucky Derby 2015 Weather: Latest Forecast for Churchill Downs Race

The 2015 Kentucky Derby is one of the most eagerly anticipated races of all time, and a perfect weather forecast means it can live up to its full potential.

Louisville has been blessed with some glorious sunshine of late, and Saturday’s outlook is just as nice, as Daily Racing Form revealed:

Weather.com says that the chance of rain stands at just 10 per cent, which means the Churchill Downs track will be firm for Saturday’s competitors.

Here’s a list of the 19-strong field set for action at the Kentucky Derby, as well as a pair of surprise horses that could take full advantage of the generous conditions.

No.	Post	Horse	Jockey	Trainer	Odds
1	2	Ocho Ocho Ocho	Elvis Trujillo	Jim Cassidy	25-1
2	3	Carpe Diem	John Velazquez	Todd Pletcher	8-1
3	4	Materiality	Javier Castellano	Todd Pletcher	16-1
4	5	Tencendur	Manny Franco	George Weaver	50-1
5	6	Danzig Moon	Julien Leparoux	Mark Casse	33-1
6	7	Mubtaahij	Christophe Soumillon	Mike de Kock	12-1
7		El Kabeir	Calvin Borel		SCR
8	8	Dortmund	Martin Garcia	Bob Baffert	18-5
9	9	Bolo	Rafael Bejarano	Carla Gaines	40-1
10	10	Firing Line	Gary Stevens	Simon Callaghan	12-1
11		Stanford	Florent Geroux		SCR
12		International Star	Miguel Mena		SCR
13	11	Itsaknockout	Luis Saez	Todd Pletcher	33-1
14	12	Keen Ice	Kent Desormeaux	Dale Romans	40-1
15	13	Frosted	Joel Rosario	Kiaran McLaughlin	16-1
16	14	War Story	Joe Talamo	Tom Amoss	50-1
17	15	Mr. Z	Ramon Vazquez	D. Wayne Lukas	50-1
18	16	American Pharoah	Victor Espinoza	Bob Baffert	13-5
19	17	Upstart	Jose Ortiz	Rick Violette Jr.	25-1
20	18	Far Right	Mike Smith	Ron Moquett	40-1
21	19	Frammento	Corey Nakatani	Nick Zito	66-1

Mubtaahij, 12-1

Rob Carr/Getty Images

Having enjoyed ample success in the United Arab Emirates, Mubtaahij comes into Saturday’s Kentucky Derby as something of an enigma.

Although he’s proved he has what it takes to win on the biggest stages of them all, a long trip from the Middle East may well have taken its toll.

Still, Mubtaahij is very much one to watch at Churchill Downs, especially so with the 12-1 odds hanging over his head.

In the UAE, Mubtaahij swept aside all before him in an incredible run of form and would have been coming into Saturday’s race on the back of five successive wins were it not for a narrow defeat at the Emirates 2000 Guineas.

Matthew Stockman/Getty Images

There, Maftool beat him by a head, but Mubtaahij was quick to wreak revenge in March’s UAE Derby, where he blitzed the competition in an eight-length victory.

The surface that Mubtaahij adjusted to in the Middle East was firm, traditional dirt—giving him the perfect platform from which to build on Saturday.

Churchill Downs’ Joe Kristufek told Bleacher Report that the UAE Derby champion is definitely in with a chance of glory, saying that he’ll give American Pharaoh the biggest run for his money:

As Kristufek says, stamina is Mubtaahij’s strong suit, and so long as he gets off to a good start in the race, he could well compete.

His starting post of No. 6 has filled jockey Christophe Soumillon with plenty of confidence, too, as he revealed via Twitter:

El Kabeir’s withdrawal means that Mubtaahij will now start from No. 7, where he’ll stand a good chance of avoiding the early congestion.

And with the firm ground feeling very familiar beneath his feet, this 12-1 outside shot could be well worth backing. The Kentucky Derby is famous for serving up a few surprises, and although American Pharaoh looks like doing the business, Mubtaahij has what it takes to spoil the favourite’s afternoon.