NFL Draft 2015: Predictions for Day 3
Day 3 of the NFL draft is a time for dreaming and hoping in equal measure.
First, the dream is chased. General managers seek to bring home an elusive gem: the mid-round Pro Bowler.
Examples of that treasure are well-documented and include Seattle Seahawks cornerback Richard Sherman (fifth round), Pittsburgh Steelers wide receiver Antonio Brown (sixth round) and Cincinnati Bengals defensive tackle Geno Atkins (fourth round). They represent the ultimate third-day prize, though often not a realistic one.
That’s when the hoping begins. In the search for depth during Day 3, there’s a hope that in the not-so-distant future, the players selected can fill a hole and be solid starters. With the right development, they could maybe grow into much more than that and becoming those Pro Bowl mid-round diamonds. But right now, the focus is on filling out a roster while finding the seeds of that potential.
Sometimes, the fit between team and prospect is just too perfect late in the draft. Let’s look at six such cases for Day 3.
The Dallas Cowboys Will Pounce on Jay Ajayi
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The story of Boise State running back Jay Ajayi’s draft slide is a curious one.
Sure, he shredded his knee in 2011, tearing his ACL and going under the knife. The improved recovery time for that injury doesn’t make it any less devastating, and it’s always a concern when a prospect at a punishing position has already ripped a rather important muscle.
Several team executives told Bob McGinn of the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel that Ajayi was removed from their draft board after a medical evaluation, and there are fears he could need microfracture surgery down the road.
But that injury strike against Ajayi comes during a draft in which Todd Gurley was a top-10 pick even though he may sit the first six weeks of his rookie season on the physically unable to perform list. Meanwhile, Ajayi played three healthy seasons at Boise State and didn’t need a combine medical recheck.
Though it’s true Ajayi faced a thorough pummeling during his final college season, in which he led the nation with 347 carries, another top-15 pick was four carries behind him. A heavy workload didn’t stop the San Diego Chargers from trading up to secure Melvin Gordon, who logged 343 carries and 362 touches overall in 2014.
The Dallas Cowboys remain the team most in need of a running back after choosing to stop outside linebacker Randy Gregory’s fall in the second round.
What's the worst-case scenario if Ajayi keeps falling to Dallas’ next pick at 127th overall? The risk assumed is mitigated by a mid-round tumble, and the Cowboys will invest less in a potentially fragile running back. Oh, and they’ll be rewarded with an offensive weapon who finished fifth in the nation with 1,823 rushing yards in 2014.
The Philadelphia Eagles Have to Take Brett Hundley, Right?
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If we talk and write enough about UCLA quarterback Brett Hundley finding a home with the Philadelphia Eagles, then it has to happen. I’m pretty sure together we can use some football voodoo to make the Hundley in Philadelphia fantasy a reality.
It feels like Hundley’s best, perhaps only, shot at NFL success lies with the Eagles and their head coach Chip Kelly, which is perhaps why the Hundley-Eagles connection has been around for, well, many months. Hundley was a common dart-throwing guess for the Eagles’ third-round pick, but Kelly passed once more, taking outside linebacker Jordan Hicks.
The Eagles are on the clock next with a mid-fourth-round pick at 113th overall, and Hundley hasn’t stopped making sense as a development project oozing with athleticism.
Over four seasons at UCLA, he finished with 1,747 rushing yards and 30 touchdowns on the ground. He did that while completing 67.6 percent of his passes and throwing just five interceptions during his final year. But that completion rate is misleading.
After digging a little further, the Hundley concerns are both glaring and familiar. Hundley threw over half of his pass attempts (54 percent) six yards or fewer in 2014, according to NFL.com’s Lance Zierlein. He’s also glacially slow with his reads, which resulted in his taking 125 sacks over three seasons as a starter.
Still, Hundley’s large frame (6’3” and 226 lbs) and decisive running make him an appealing dual-threat option Kelly could potentially mold into a long-term option when the Sam Bradford era fizzles.
The Buffalo Bills Will Add Bryce Petty to Their QB Competition
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The Buffalo Bills are currently set to have a three-way quarterback duel in training camp to determine who will hand off to running back LeSean McCoy most and then get out of the way. Matt Cassel and EJ Manuel sit atop the depth chart, followed by Tyrod Taylor. In a true statement of desperation, all three were given equal reps during the team’s recent voluntary minicamp, reported on the league's official website.
The Bills have overhauled their roster this offseason, but they still need an injection of hope at the quarterback position. Enter Bryce Petty.
The Baylor quarterback comes from a spread offense and was always used in shotgun. He’ll need time to adjust and would be in fine hands with Bills offensive coordinator Greg Roman after what he did in San Francisco with Colin Kaepernick, who was also a project coming out of Nevada.
Petty will need to improve his vision, learning how to work through his progressions, but he offers a fine foundation to build upon, including a strong arm and the large body required to have a rock-solid presence in the pocket (6’3” and 230 lbs).
He could be ready once Cassel inevitably resumes being a replacement-level quarterback and Manuel keeps spiraling toward bust status.
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The Miami Dolphins Will Welcome Nick O’Leary's Craziness
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If your family had a dog when you were young, a classic family dog thing probably happened at least once. You might have put a blanket over your dog’s head and then hilarity ensued, with the dog spending a few seconds running into everything, possibly breaking a lamp.
Florida State tight end Nick O’Leary is that dog. He seeks out contact in its various forms, either after the catch or as a blocker. Running into people seems to be his true passion.
“As a blocker he’ll take on multiple guys per play and keep blocking even after the play is over,” wrote ESPN’s Todd McShay, who also said O’Leary “plays crazy.”
He’s just the kind of crazy needed right now for the Miami Dolphins.
O’Leary set a collegiate career high with 618 receiving yards in 2014. In that pass-catching role, he’ll be an ideal complement to Jordan Cameron and provide critical depth. Cameron is athletic and plays like a wide receiver, but he’s struggled through concussion problems.
There’s even more appeal in O’Leary due to his effectiveness as a run-blocker. The Seminoles often lined him up in the backfield, swinging the 244-pounder out as a lead blocker. He’s versatile and tenacious, two valuable qualities in a mid-round pick.
Ben Heeney Should Hear the Kansas City Chiefs Call His Name
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Kansas linebacker Ben Heeney is large where it matters on a football field. In 2014, he finished with the nation's third-most solo tackles (88). At the scouting combine, he was second among all inside linebackers with a 40-yard dash time of 4.59. His status as a combine superstar continued with a three-cone time of 6.68, which led the linebacker group.
His figurative largeness on the football field included 335 tackles for the Jayhawks over three seasons. But literal largeness? He doesn’t have enough of that, which is why an undersized high-energy linebacker (where you at, Chris Borland?) is available for the Kansas City Chiefs on Day 3.
Heeney is 6’0” and weighs 230 pounds, though his anticipation masks that shorter build for his position. He would fit the Chiefs because of the uncertain future they face with linebacker Derrick Johnson. The 10-year veteran is entering the final year of his current contract and, at 33 years old, won’t exactly be a young stud when it expires.
Heeney is a safe investment with high upside.
Carolina Panthers Need to Take a Chance on T.J. Clemmings
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The Carolina Panthers are currently set to trot out Michael Oher as their starting left tackle. The same Michael Oher who gave up six sacks in 2014 over just 668 snaps, according to Pro Football Focus.
Panthers general manager David Gettleman neglected to select a tackle over the first three rounds, choosing instead to prioritize another target for quarterback Cam Newton by trading up in the second round to get wide receiver Devin Funchess.
That's fair enough, but some hope at tackle is still a dire need. Newton has been sacked 81 times over the past two seasons and faced pressure on 35.5 percent of his dropbacks in 2014, per PFF. That hope can come from a free-falling T.J. Clemmings.
The Pittsburgh tackle has seen his draft stock plummet after a stress fracture was found in his foot during a pre-draft team visit. Prior to that he was considered a possible late first-round pick, with Zierlein seeing Pro Bowl potential as Clemmings’ developmental peak.
Clemmings is very much a boom-or-bust selection, but any risk attached to him—injury or otherwise—decreases with each passing pick.
Josh Shaw Would Give the Pittsburgh Steelers Much-Needed Depth
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There’s a sort of mental blockage that immediately clouds the mind whenever you hear Josh Shaw’s name. It’s fine, and there’s nothing wrong with you. Being unable to look past a truly creative lie is a natural reaction.
If we can’t look past the whopper Shaw told when he broke both his ankles while jumping from a balcony, then that hurdle must be mountainous for potential future employers. But all it takes is one team to see that incident as an isolated youthful misstep. The general manager for that team will then draft a hulking defensive back who will enter a league in which massive pillars in the secondary are quite fashionable.
At 6’0” and 201 pounds Shaw was primarily a cornerback at USC, though he was versatile and played some safety too. Because of his ankle injuries, Shaw played little in 2014 and therefore didn’t produce much fresh tape to evaluate.
The pre-draft All-Star Games became critical, and during the East-West Shrine Game, he recorded an interception. Emory Hunt of Footballgameplan.com attended Shrine Game and Senior Bowl practices and came away saying Shaw was the most dominant player.
During his last full season, Shaw finished with four interceptions, showing his physicality with 5.5 tackles for a loss. There was some question about his top-end speed, but then Shaw did his best to silence those doubts with a 40-yard dash time of 4.44 at the scouting combine, good enough for fourth among all cornerbacks.
There are still concerns about his hip movement and short-area quickness, weaknesses highlighted by his 7.01 time in the three-cone drill. That’s where the debate about his positional fit begins. Is he a safety or a cornerback? Either way, he has value as a physical presence.
The Pittsburgh Steelers are most likely to be tasked with developing Shaw and making that safety or cornerback decision. General manager Kevin Colbert wisely addressed another core need in the first round by selecting outside linebacker Bud Dupree. He stayed with defense in the second round, making a call to cornerback Senquez Golson.
Following the retirement of safety Troy Polamalu, a large-bodied hitter is needed in the secondary. In time, Shaw could be that guy.
CBSSports.com draft anayst Rob Rang cast his position vote, writing that Shaw is “highly physical and a reliable tackler.” At his size, he’s one of the better safety prospects. A defender meeting that description might come at the modest cost of a fifth-round pick.
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