Kentucky Derby Odds 2015: Last-Minute Updates and Picks
The two most exciting minutes in sports is just about here, with a field of 19 set to line up in the 141st running of the Kentucky Derby (G1) at Churchill Downs.
There is $2 million up for grabs, but more importantly, the winner will head to Baltimore in two weeks, looking to keep Triple Crown hopes alive in the Preakness Stakes (G1), the second jewel of the Triple Crown.
Racing at Churchill Downs starts early, as the marathon day kicks off with a first post of 10:30 a.m. ET. Seven hours later, a crowd that could reach 160,000 will get their wagers in and sing "My Old Kentucky Home." Then it will be post time.
With the race fast approaching, let's look at a few last-minute updates and predictions on the outcome.
El Kabeir, Stanford, International Star Late Scratches
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The Kentucky Derby field has been reduced to 18 due to the late scratches of Stanford, El Kabeir and International Star.
Owner Ramsey Farm tweeted Saturday morning that International Star was scratched because of a quarter crack in a hoof.
Trainer Todd Pletcher announced Thursday that Stanford would not go Saturday. "We entered the horse in the race to see what sort of post he might draw," Pletcher told Claire Novak of Blood Horse. "We were on the fence as to whether or not to run him, but we thought we'd take a look. But after seeing the draw and talking to the owners, we decided it might be best to take him out and consider other options."
The defection allows Frammento into the field. The Nick Zito trainee ran fourth in the Toyota Blue Grass (G1) at Keeneland in his last outing. The colt is 66-1 in the latest odds at Odds Shark.
On Friday, Justin Zayat of Zayat Stables confirmed that El Kabeir is out of the race. The Jerome (G3) and Gotham Stakes (G3) winner has the beginnings of either a quarter crack or an abscess.
El Kabeir was to be ridden by Calvin Borel, who was looking for his fourth Kentucky Derby-winning ride.
Mother Nature Comes Up Roses
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It was a rough winter in Kentucky and around most of the U.S., but Mother Nature must be a racing fan. The weather was perfect for Kentucky Oaks Day on Friday, and another beautiful day is in the offing for Saturday.
The forecast, according to The Weather Channel, calls for partly cloudy skies with a high of 78 degrees with light winds out of the north.
While the weather was good last year, Orb won the 2013 Kentucky Derby over a sloppy racetrack, coming from far out of it to rally for the win as the betting favorite, returning $12.80.
The main track was fast, and the turf was firm Friday. The racing surface appeared to play fair to all running styles.
American Pharoah Is the Early Favorite
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American Pharoah has been the betting favorite at Odds Shark for months, and that is not going to change when the gates open Saturday afternoon. The colt is currently listed at odds of 13-5.
Churchill Downs offered advanced wagering on the Kentucky Derby, and $173,958 went into the win pool as of Friday evening. American Pharoah took $38,237 of the cash, making him the 5-2 betting favorite, right on his original morning line.
The undefeated Dortmund is the second choice in money wagered at Churchill Downs, at 9-2, up from his 3-1 morning line. Those odds seem likely to drop by Saturday afternoon.
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Frosted Is the Early-Steam Horse
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The contender taking the early steam is Wood Memorial (G1) winner Frosted. The Kiaran McLaughlin trainee is listed on the morning line at 15-1 but has been bet down to odds of 9-1 as of Friday evening.
The colt headed for home with the leads in the Fountain of Youth (G2) at Gulfstream Park in his previous start and abruptly stopped in the stretch and finished fourth. The colt underwent throat surgery after the race to assist him in breathing better, and it paid dividends in the Wood.
The colt is listed at 16-1 in early Kentucky Derby wagering at Odds Shark.
Two Knockout Parlay Will Pay Dividends
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Just hours after the Kentucky Derby winner is adorned in roses, Floyd Mayweather Jr. and Manny Pacquiao will battle in one of the most anticipated boxing matches in decades.
That might lead the Todd Pletcher-trained Itsaknockout to garner a few extra win bets, and the ownership group has been attired in Mayweather-Pacquiao gear this week as part of an endorsement deal.
And yes, there are wagers that put the two big events together. The odds of Mayweather beating Pacquiao and Itsaknockout winning the Kentucky Derby is 50-1, according to Odds Shark. Pacquiao beating Mayweather and Itsaknockout taking the Derby is at odds of 66-1.
If you think Itsaknockout will win the Kentucky Derby and Pacquiao will knock out Mayweather, you can get odds of 250-1.
Pletcher Down to Three Shots to Improve Record
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With the scratch of Stanford, trainer Todd Pletcher still has three shots to win his second Kentucky Derby. The seven-time Eclipse Award-winning trainer has struggled in the biggest race of the year.
Pletcher lost with his first 24 starters and then finally got the monkey off his back with Super Saver in 2010. He has not won the Run for the Roses since, and his record stands at 1-40.
Carpe Diem figures to be the third choice in the wagering based on wins in the Tampa Bay Derby (G2) and Toyota Blue Grass (G1), but he has not yet run a speed figure that matches up with Bob Baffert's duo.
Materiality ran huge while winning the Florida Derby (G1) at Gulfstream Park but has just three races under his belt. The colt did not make his debut until Jan. 11, and no horse has won the Kentucky Derby without racing as a juvenile since Apollo in 1882.
Pletcher's third runner is Itsaknockout, who won the Fountain of Youth (G2) thanks to a disqualification of the winner, but he has not run fast enough to win Saturday.
Long Shots with Chance of Landing in Money
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While American Pharoah and Dortmund are getting most of the attention, plenty of contenders in the race have a legitimate shot of winning at higher odds.
With only six favorites winning the Derby in the last three decades, it may be worth looking for a bomb.
Frosted is coming off a victory in the Wood Memorial (G1), bouncing back off a disappointing effort in a fourth-place finish in the Fountain of You (G2). The colt is currently listed at odds of 16-1 at Odds Shark.
Firing Line is currently 12-1 in early Derby wagering and is coming off a 14 1/4 length victory in the Sunland Derby (G3). The colt mixed it up with the undefeated Dortmund twice, losing photos in both the Los Alamitos Futurity (G1) and Robert B. Lewis (G3).
Materiality is coming off a huge effort in his Florida Derby (G1) victory and offers value at early odds of 16-1.
Prediction for Show
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With the Saturday morning scratch of International Star, my prediction for the third spot is now Materiality, the winner of the Florida Derby (G1) in his last outing for trainer Todd Pletcher.
This is the most inexperienced colt in the field with just three starts, but he may still have some upside. Purchased by his connections for $400,000, he is a son of 2005 Preakness and Belmont Stakes winner Afleet Alex.
If he were to win the Derby, he would be the first since Apollo in 1882 that did not race as a juvenile. The colt made his debut over a sloppy surface at Gulfstream Park, breaking his maiden in an impressive outing.
He then came back to win the ungraded Islamorada Handicap on March 6 before earning his way to Louisville with his Florida Derby win.
Prediction for Place
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American Pharoah is the most likely winner, and it is hard to knock his big efforts in the Rebel (G2) and Arkansas Derby (G1).
The colt has worked sharply since his last outing and is in good hands with Hall of Fame trainer Bob Baffert, a three-time winner of the race.
In addition, Victor Espinoza is in the irons. The jockey rode California Chrome flawlessly in last year's Kentucky Derby victory.
While betting favorites have won the last two editions of the race, horseplayers who back American Pharoah are going to have to settle for a short price.
Prediction for Win
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Frosted is going to offer solid value if he goes off near his 15-1 morning line, and Odds Shark has had him as high as 25-1. Those fixed odds may drop as he took betting action Friday at Churchill Downs, getting down to 9-1.
The Wood Memorial has not been a productive race for Derby winners recently. We have to go back to Funny Cide in 2003 to find the last Kentucky Derby winner who exited the Wood.
The colt is improving. Throat surgery after his fade in the Fountain of Youth (G2) seems to have him back on track, and he appears to be sitting on a big one.
His trainer Kiaran McLaughlin nearly pulled off the biggest upset in Derby history when Closing Argument ran second in 2005 at odds of 71-1.
The colt should get a good trip from midpack, will pounce on the tiring front-runners midstretch and hold off the late runners to pull off the upset.
Kentucky Derby betting odds provided by Odds Shark.
Follow Michael Dempsey on Twitter @turfnsport
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