2015 Kentucky Derby: Final Odds and Predictions for All Horses
The 2015 Kentucky Derby field has been finalised following the withdrawal of El Kabeir, as reported b the event's official Twitter account, and final odds are starting to pour in for the remaining 19 horses who have their eye on the first leg of the Triple Crown:
The final racing odds are also being adjusted, and unsurprisingly, Odds Shark has kept American Pharoah and Dortmund as its two favourites, giving Bob Baffert a tremendous one-two punch going into the race.
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There's plenty of competition for this year's Run for the Roses, however. Let's have a look at the full field, and make some early predictions:
| 1 | |||||
| 2 | Ocho Ocho Ocho | Elvis Trujillo | Jim Cassidy | 25-1 | 15-20 |
| 3 | Carpe Diem | John Velazquez | Todd Pletcher | 17-2 | Top 10 |
| 4 | Materiality | Javier Castellano | Todd Pletcher | 16-1 | 15-20 |
| 5 | Tencendur | Manny Franco | George Weaver | 50-1 | 15-20 |
| 6 | Danzig Moon | Julien Leparoux | Mark Casse | 33-1 | 10-15 |
| 7 | Mubtaahij | Christophe Soumillion | Mike de Kock | 12-1 | Top 3 |
| 8 | Dortmund | Martin Garcia | Bob Baffert | 15-1 | Top 3 |
| 9 | Bolo | Rafael Bejarano | Carla Gaines | 40-1 | 15-20 |
| 10 | Firing Line | Gary Stevens | Simon Callaghan | 16-1 | 5-10 |
| 11 | International Star (Scratched) | / | / | / | / |
| 12 | Itsaknockout | Luis Saez | Todd Pletcher | 33-1 | 10-15 |
| 13 | Keen Ice | Kent Desormeaux | Dale Romans | 40-1 | 5-10 |
| 14 | Frosted | Joel Rosario | Kiaran McLaughlin | 16-1 | Top 5 |
| 15 | War Story | Joe Talamo | Tom Amoss | 50-1 | 10-15 |
| 16 | Mr. Z | Ramon Vazquez | D. Wayne Lukas | 50-1 | 10-15 |
| 17 | American Pharoah | Victor Espinoza | Bob Baffert | 13-5 | Top 3 |
| 18 | Upstart | Jose Ortiz | Rick Violette Jr. | 22-1 | 10-15 |
| 19 | Far Right | Mike Smith | Ron Moquett | 40-1 | Top 10 |
| 20 | Frammento | Joe Bravo | Nick Zito | 50-1 | 15-20 |
Contenders
American Pharoah
The odds-on favourite entering the race, American Pharoah has a lot going for him. The colt looks incredibly smooth and is capable of a fantastic burst of speed, winning races by simply powering past the competition in the final straight.
People are starting to get overly excited with his potential, with one respected clocker even going as far as suggesting American Pharoah could be the best horse he's ever seen, per the event's official Twitter account:
American Pharoah looked absolutely dominant at the 2015 Arkansas Derby and has shown little signs of slowing down since. Yahoo's Pat Forde sees him as the best horse in what will be a very deep field:
The favourite will start from Post 17, which has never produced a winner in the history of the Kentucky Derby, per the event's official website. Superstitious fans may see it as a sign to pick a different horse―others will see it as a sign he's destined to break said curse, and perhaps make a real run at the Triple Crown.
Regardless, there are plenty of reasons to like American Pharoah, and if he can get a good jump out of the gate to negate his starting position, there's no reason why he couldn't win.
Dortmund
As stated before, this year's field is incredibly deep. So deep in fact that Baffert doesn't just enter the race with one favourite; he has two.
Dortmund enters the race undefeated and battle-tested, twice going head-to-head with Firing Line and twice emerging victorious. The colt is massive and uses his long strides well, but given his size, there's always the danger he could get stuck in the pack if he suffers a bad break. Baffert knows it, per America's Best Racing:
Dortmund has been a steady riser among punters and pundits in the past week, and American Pharoah's post draw only sped up the process. As shared by The Score, more and more people are jumping on the bandwagon:
Similar to American Pharoah, there are plenty of reasons to like Dortmund. He has excellent burst in the final furlongs, plenty of experience, a winning pedigree and the character to fight through adversity, as he showed against Firing Line.
If punters need a reason not to trust Dortmund, it's that he's been acting out this past week, as Baffert told ESPN's Jeannine Edwards:
As with stable mate American Pharoah, Dortmund is a relatively safe pick to at least run in the money.
Carpe Diem, Mubtaahij, Firing Line
Outside of the top two, there are several fringe contenders punters shouldn't be afraid to back. Carpe Diem has lost the backing of some pundits due to being drawn on the inside, but with El Kabeir not running, he'll start from Post 2 and have a little more space to work with.
He's also looked mighty impressive this week, per Edwards:
Firing Line has twice lost to Dortmund in the past, but has never run below second, per the National Thoroughbred Racing Association. The colt has been consistent and in winning form recently:
And then there's Mubtaahij, hoping to translate dominance in Dubai to success on U.S. soil. There's always a risk involved when picking an international horse to do well at Churchill Downs, but Mubtaahij has been utterly dominant in Dubai and displays incredible stamina, which will be key in the final straight.
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