Kentucky Derby 2015 Odds: Last-Minute Updates and Picks

A few changes to the 2015 Kentucky Derby field won't do much to affect the odds as a few contenders stand out in an otherwise loaded field at Churchill Downs.  

According to Gene Kershner of The Buffalo News, El Kabeir was scratched from the race Friday:

This comes after Stanford scratched to leave an opening for Frammento to replace him, via Jonathan Lintner of The Courier Journal.

Despite these issues, this is one of the deepest fields in years. So many top horses have proved themselves on the track but remain long shots to take home the title.

This should create an interesting race as every challenger hopes to win the first leg of the Triple Crown. With that in mind, here is a look at the latest odds with final predictions for the top finishers.

No.	Post	Horse	Jockey	Trainer	Odds
1	2	Ocho Ocho Ocho	Elvis Trujillo	Jim Cassidy	25-1
2	3	Carpe Diem	John Velazquez	Todd Pletcher	8-1
3	4	Materiality	Javier Castellano	Todd Pletcher	16-1
4	5	Tencendur	Manny Franco	George Weaver	50-1
5	6	Danzig Moon	Julien Leparoux	Mark Casse	33-1
6	7	Mubtaahij	Christophe Soumillon	Mike de Kock	12-1
7		El Kabeir	Calvin Borel		SCR
8	8	Dortmund	Martin Garcia	Bob Baffert	18-5
9	9	Bolo	Rafael Bejarano	Carla Gaines	40-1
10	10	Firing Line	Gary Stevens	Simon Callaghan	12-1
11		Stanford	Florent Geroux		SCR
12		International Star	Miguel Mena		SCR
13	11	Itsaknockout	Luis Saez	Todd Pletcher	33-1
14	12	Keen Ice	Kent Desormeaux	Dale Romans	40-1
15	13	Frosted	Joel Rosario	Kiaran McLaughlin	16-1
16	14	War Story	Joe Talamo	Tom Amoss	50-1
17	15	Mr. Z	Ramon Vazquez	D. Wayne Lukas	50-1
18	16	American Pharoah	Victor Espinoza	Bob Baffert	13-5
19	17	Upstart	Jose Ortiz	Rick Violette Jr.	25-1
20	18	Far Right	Mike Smith	Ron Moquett	40-1
21	19	Frammento	Corey Nakatani	Nick Zito	66-1

Prediction

Show: American Pharoah

Everyone was amazed by American Pharoah's performance in his last start. The thoroughbred dominated the Arkansas Derby, pulling away down the stretch for an eight-length victory.

He certainly deserves to come in as the favorite, with some expecting historic results:

That said, there is also a lot of competition in this year's race compared to past years. NBC Sports analyst Mike Battaglia recently explained, "I've been doing this a long time. I cannot remember a Derby going in that I thought was as tough as this one is," via Gary Mihoces of USA Today.

This makes betting the favorite a huge risk no matter how good the horse has been.

Meanwhile, starting in the No. 17 post means there will be a long way to run to get into position. This could cause problems for a horse that is relatively inexperienced in this field.

Jockey Victor Espinoza will be helpful to keep American Pharoah in the money but a win will be difficult.

Place: Frosted

Andy Lyons/Getty Images

It's difficult to find a true sleeper in this race, but Frosted would qualify as a mini one after the top few names. 

Although the horse has just two career wins in seven starts, the last race was likely the most indicative of what he can do. This is because it is the only one with a new team leading the way after wholesale changes.

After Frosted finished in a disappointing fourth place at the Fountain of Youth, trainers Kiaran and Neal McLaughlin made a number of changes, including switching jockeys from Irad Ortiz to Joel Rosario. This resulted in a first-place finish in the Grade 1 Wood Memorial.

"We had to figure him out—and he had to figure it out, too," Neal told Jeff Greer of The Courier Journal. "He was one of those horses who had the talent but he didn't know what to do with it. We didn't know how to get the most out of him."

The latest win shows the horse's true potential, something that could be brought out again in this competitive race for a high finish.

Win: Dortmund

Garry Jones/Associated Press

Bob Baffert seems to be in good shape to win another Kentucky Derby this year as he trains each of the top two favorites in American Pharoah and Dortmund. While each has a good chance to end up in the winner's circle, the latter has a slight edge for a few reasons.

One major advantage is Dortmund's flawless record to this stage in his career. In six career starts, the thoroughbred has won all six, including four graded races. The most recent victory came at the Arkansas Derby, which saw him lead from start to finish.

Jockey Martin Garcia has been aboard all six races and knows exactly how to handle the contender.

Another key factor is the post position, which put Dortmund in the perfect mix of not too far away but not on the rail. He has good opening speed and should be able to get into the right position to make his move.

Additionally, the horse's pedigree is certainly in his favor:

Dortmund is a strong horse with excellent pure speed and a team around him that knows how to be successful. With a good start, he should be the first to cross the finish line Saturday.

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