Kentucky Derby Picks 2015: Pre-Race Predictions Based on Vegas Odds

Vegas odds for the 141st Kentucky Derby point to two clear favorites in American Pharoah and Dortmund.

The two Bob Baffert-backed horses stride into Saturday's first Triple Crown race as the top choices to win the Run for the Roses. The latest lines, courtesy of Odds Shark, place them firmly ahead of the pack, but the other 17 colts are far from placeholders.

Todd Pletcher will trot out two other highly regarded horses in Carpe Diem and Materiality, but another pair pose a greater threat at Churchill Downs.  

No.	Post	Horse	Jockey	Trainer	Odds
1	2	Ocho Ocho Ocho	Elvis Trujillo	Jim Cassidy	25-1
2	3	Carpe Diem	John Velazquez	Todd Pletcher	8-1
3	4	Materiality	Javier Castellano	Todd Pletcher	16-1
4	5	Tencendur	Manny Franco	George Weaver	50-1
5	6	Danzig Moon	Julien Leparoux	Mark Casse	33-1
6	7	Mubtaahij	Christophe Soumillon	Mike de Kock	12-1
7	SCRATCH	El Kabeir	Calvin Borel		SCR
8	8	Dortmund	Martin Garcia	Bob Baffert	18-5
9	9	Bolo	Rafael Bejarano	Carla Gaines	40-1
10	10	Firing Line	Gary Stevens	Simon Callaghan	12-1
11	SCRATCH	Stanford	Florent Geroux		SCR
12	SCRATCH	International Star	Miguel Mena		SCR
13	11	Itsaknockout	Luis Saez	Todd Pletcher	33-1
14	12	Keen Ice	Kent Desormeaux	Dale Romans	40-1
15	13	Frosted	Joel Rosario	Kiaran McLaughlin	16-1
16	14	War Story	Joe Talamo	Tom Amoss	50-1
17	15	Mr. Z	Ramon Vazquez	D. Wayne Lukas	50-1
18	16	American Pharoah	Victor Espinoza	Bob Baffert	13-5
19	17	Upstart	Jose Ortiz	Rick Violette Jr.	25-1
20	18	Far Right	Mike Smith	Ron Moquett	40-1
21	19	Frammento	Corey Nakatani	Nick Zito	66-1

Kentucky Derby Picks 

Win: American Pharoah

Rob Carr/Getty Images

After a rough debut, American Pharoah has won four straight starts, three of them Grade 1 events. He smoked the competition during April 11's Arkansas Derby, earning respect throughout the industry.

Trainer D. Wayne Lukas, a four-time Kentucky Derby winner, watched American Pharoah blow past his horse, Mr. Z. He marveled at his competition to Yahoo Sports' Pat Forde.

"I have not been that impressed with a horse in a long time,” Lukas said. "We came up to him, and when [jockey] Victor Espinoza just nudged him, he opened up four or five lengths on us. … That just breaks horses' hearts. That impressed the hell out of me."

Private clocker Gary Young also offered high praise to ESPN.com's Gary West. "I've been doing this for 35 years, Young said, "and he might be the best horse I've ever seen."

With Stanford a late scratch, Pharoah slides from the No. 18 post to No. 17, which has never produced a Derby champion. That byproduct of happenstance will change with the race's best participant in the "cursed" gate.

Place: Firing Line

Following two runner-up finishes to Dortmund, Firing Line hit his stride with a massive 14 ¼-length triumph at the Sunland Derby. Trainer Simon Callaghan discussed the momentous win with Frank Angst of Blood-Horse: 

"

Winning by that much was nice. I think he probably got some confidence out of it after his two previous battles in his previous races. We had never had a horse win a stakes race by that much. It was kind of one of those races going in that we kind of hoped that would happen.

He's come out of that great and hasn't missed anything training-wise; he's training great.

"

Gary Stevens, the Derby's most seasoned jockey at 52 years old, will saddle Firing Line after the record-setting performance. He hasn't won at Churchill Downs since 1997, but the Hall of Famer shouldn't be discounted in his pursuit of a 10th Triple Crown victory.

Although Firing Line previously fell short to Dortmund at the Los Alamitos Futurity and Robert B. Lewis Stakes, both were neck-and-neck finishes. The two aren't far off, but Dortmund carries drastically superior odds, making Firing Line a worthy gambit given his more favorable line.

Show: Mubtaahij

Warren Little/Getty Images

The Derby's biggest wild card, Mubtaahij makes his American debut on the grandest stage of them all. Fear of the unknown pushes him from the top tier, but the international colt is more than capable of making a lasting first impression.

A 19-horse field and 10-furlong track are both new to the Irish-born horse, but Mubtaahij has run on dirt tracks similar to Churchill Downs' surface. Trainer Mike de Kock also has not noticed any lingering effects from the long travel to U.S. soil.

"He seemed settled (after) two days of quarantine," de Kock told The Associated Press' Gary B. Graves. "It seems to have worked out for the better."

Terrific acceleration out of the starting gate makes Mubtaahij someone to watch. While unfamiliarity will cause some bettors to steer clear, the mystique also plants possibilities of greatness.