Kentucky Derby 2015 Lineup: Final Field Odds and Predictions for All Entries
The long wait is nearly over for horse racing fans, as the field gets ready for the 2015 Kentucky Derby. This year's lineup is one of the deepest and strongest in recent memory, something the odds back up. As such pundits and punters alike are having great difficulty putting their predictions together.
Bob Baffert's duo of American Pharoah and Dortmund may be the favourites, per Odds Shark, but there's an army of contenders sitting just behind them, with the likes of Frosted, Firing Line, Mubtaahij and Carpe Diem all looking like potential winners.
Here's the full field for the 141st Kentucky Derby, complete with odds and predictions:
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| 1 | |||||
| 2 | Ocho Ocho Ocho | Elvis Trujillo | Jim Cassidy | 25-1 | 15-20 |
| 3 | Carpe Diem | John Velazquez | Todd Pletcher | 8-1 | Top 10 |
| 4 | Materiality | Javier Castellano | Todd Pletcher | 16-1 | 15-20 |
| 5 | Tencendur | Manny Franco | George Weaver | 50-1 | 15-20 |
| 6 | Danzig Moon | Julien Leparoux | Mark Casse | 33-1 | 10-15 |
| 7 | Mubtaahij | Christophe Soumillion | Mike de Kock | 12-1 | Top 3 |
| 8 | Dortmund | Martin Garcia | Bob Baffert | 18-5 | Top 3 |
| 9 | Bolo | Rafael Bejarano | Carla Gaines | 40-1 | 15-20 |
| 10 | Firing Line | Gary Stevens | Simon Callaghan | 12-1 | 5-10 |
| 11 | Itsaknockout | Luis Saez | Todd Pletcher | 33-1 | 10-15 |
| 12 | Keen Ice | Kent Desormeaux | Dale Romans | 40-1 | 5-10 |
| 13 | Frosted | Joel Rosario | Kiaran McLaughlin | 16-1 | Top 5 |
| 14 | War Story | Joe Talamo | Tom Amoss | 50-1 | 10-15 |
| 15 | Mr. Z | Ramon Vazquez | D. Wayne Lukas | 50-1 | 10-15 |
| 16 | American Pharoah | Victor Espinoza | Bob Baffert | 13-5 | Top 3 |
| 17 | Upstart | Jose Ortiz | Rick Violette Jr. | 25-1 | 10-15 |
| 18 | Far Right | Mike Smith | Ron Moquett | 40-1 | Top 10 |
| 19 | Frammento | Joe Bravo | Nick Zito | 66-1 | 15-20 |
Analysis
Legendary trainer Baffert is probably a happy man these days, coming into the race with the two favourites to win the Run for the Roses. Per NBC Sports, a win on Saturday would be the fourth of his career:
No trainer has taken the top two spots in decades, but Baffert seems to be as calm as can be heading into one of the biggest races of his life.
Speaking to Jim Cassidy, who trains Ocho Ocho Ocho, he seemed at ease enough to crack a joke in front of the cameras, via Derby News:
American Pharoah is the odds-on favourite after a great showing at the Arkansas Derby and impressive work throughout the past few weeks. The colt has blinding speed and runs almost effortlessly:
He'll be ridden by Victor Espinoza, who won the Derby atop California Chrome last year and came very close to winning the Triple Crown. Espinoza is as experienced as they come, another strong reason to believe in American Pharoah.
If you need a reason to doubt the colt, it's history. Originally drawn in Post 18, he was moved to Post 17 following the withdrawal of Stanford. As shared by Odds Shark, no horse has ever started from that post and won at Churchill Downs:
Stable mate Dortmund enters the Kentucky Derby undefeated and in fine form, winning over the hearts of plenty of pundits in the process.
ESPN's Bram Weinstein is among them:
It's difficult to bet against a horse that has never lost a race before, even if he came close to suffering his first loss at the hands of Firing Line twice. Punters also won't have to worry about the colt's starting position, being drawn into Post 8.
Behind the two favourites, the field is stacked. Neil Greenberg of the Washington Post took a look at historical tendencies and came to the conclusion Baffert's top duo won't win the 141st Kentucky Derby at all:
Firing Line has already shown he can hang with Dortmund and Carpe Diem was one of many top horses making a great impression in the past few days, via ESPN's Jeannine Edwards:
Unfortunately, Carpe Diem will be starting from Post 2 and will need a great jump at the start to avoid losing precious time in the pack.
And then there's this year's international sensation, Mubtaahij, who hopes to translate utter dominance overseas into success at Churchill Downs. The colt was winning races as a two-year-old against horses twice his age and has fantastic stamina and pedigree, but punters are always wary of international contenders, who haven't fared too well on U.S. soil in recent years.
American Pharoah and Dortmund remain the favourites, but unlike last year's race, an upset wouldn't really be a huge surprise in 2015.
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