Kentucky Derby 2015: Predictions for All Horses After Latest Weather Forecast
The 2015 Kentucky Derby is almost upon us, and with the latest weather forecast looking perfect for a full day of racing at Churchill Downs, it's time to to start making some predictions for the field of 20 horses battling for the opening leg of the Triple Crown.
Odds Shark has the Bob Baffert-trained duo of American Pharoah (13-5) and Dortmund (15-4) as the favourites for the win, ahead of the likes of Carpe Diem (17-2), Mubtaahij (12-1), Firing Line (16-1) and Frosted (16-1). The pack is incredibly deep this year, and punters feeling lucky shouldn't be afraid to bet on an upset.
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Here's the full starting list for the 141st Kentucky Derby, along with predictions for every horse:
| 1 | ||||
| 2 | Ocho Ocho Ocho | Elvis Trujillo | Jim Cassidy | 15-20 |
| 3 | Carpe Diem | John Velazquez | Todd Pletcher | Top 10 |
| 4 | Materiality | Javier Castellano | Todd Pletcher | 15-20 |
| 5 | Tencendur | Manny Franco | George Weaver | 15-20 |
| 6 | Danzig Moon | Julien Leparoux | Mark Casse | 10-15 |
| 7 | Mubtaahij | Christophe Soumillion | Mike de Kock | Top 3 |
| 8 | Dortmund | Martin Garcia | Bob Baffert | Top 3 |
| 9 | Bolo | Rafael Bejarano | Carla Gaines | 15-20 |
| 10 | Firing Line | Gary Stevens | Simon Callaghan | 5-10 |
| 11 | International Star | Miguel Mena | Mike Maker | 5-10 |
| 12 | Itsaknockout | Luis Saez | Todd Pletcher | 10-15 |
| 13 | Keen Ice | Kent Desormeaux | Dale Romans | 5-10 |
| 14 | Frosted | Joel Rosario | Kiaran McLaughlin | Top 5 |
| 15 | War Story | Joe Talamo | Tom Amoss | 10-15 |
| 16 | Mr. Z | Ramon Vazquez | D. Wayne Lukas | 10-15 |
| 17 | American Pharoah | Victor Espinoza | Bob Baffert | Top 3 |
| 18 | Upstart | Jose Ortiz | Rick Violette Jr. | 10-15 |
| 19 | Far Right | Mike Smith | Ron Moquett | Top 10 |
| 20 | Frammento | Joe Bravo | Nick Zito | 15-20 |
Weather Forecast
According to Weather.com, there should be no more rain between now and the start of the race, which should make for a very fast track. We can expect light winds and some clouds on Saturday, with a high of 77 degrees Fahrenheit and a low 52.
Contenders
American Pharoah
Baffert's prized colt American Pharoah has been the odds-on favourite for this race ever since his dominant showing at the Arkansas Derby. That fact hasn't changed even after it became clear he would start from the dreaded Post 17 following the withdrawal of Stanford.
As shared by Kent Taylor of Wave TV, Post 17 has never produced a winner in the history of the Kentucky Derby:
American Pharoah has an incredible burst of speed in the final furlongs, and he's looked mightily impressive in both his most recent races and every training leading up to the event.
In any other year, punters should feel confident the colt would break the curse of Post 17 and start building a legacy from there―but as shared by Pat Forde of Yahoo, this is no ordinary year:
This year's field has arguably up to five horses who would be favourites to win the Derby in any other year, and none of those other potential contenders will have to start from Post 17. American Pharoah can still win the Kentucky Derby; it will just be a lot harder.
Dortmund
American Pharoah isn't Baffert's only hope at winning his first Kentucky Derby since 2002, as undefeated Dortmund will also be running on Saturday. The giant colt is a favourite of punters and pundits alike, and Sports Illustrated's Tim Layden actually likes his chances of winning better than those of his stablemate:
Dortmund is one of the biggest thoroughbreds you'll ever see, and he uses his long strides well to see off challengers in the final straight. He's undefeated but was twice tested by another potential Derby winner Firing Line.
In those duels, it was clear Dortmund's stamina is just fine, and the longer strides will serve him well in a potential sprint.
One potential worry for Baffert and punters is the fact the colt has been acting out a bit during the past week. We sometimes hear these kind of rumours leading up to the race, but it's been bad enough even Baffert confirmed it, via ESPN's Jeannine Edwards:
Still, Dortmund remains a favourite and a smart choice for punters who don't like American Pharoah's odds starting from Post 17.
Mubtaahij
There are plenty of other dark horse (pun intended) candidates to consider, but Irish-bred Mubtaahij will likely be the most popular pick among punters. Joe Kristufek of America's Best Racing is intrigued:
Mubtaahij has been dominant running in Dubai, and while international horses have had limited success at Churchill Downs in recent years, the colt looks like he could break that trend.
He was dominant in the UAE Derby, a complete demolition of the field, and has looked fantastic all week. Jockey Christophe Soumillon was also more than happy with the draw:
It's worth remembering Mubtaahij had to endure extensive traveling to get to Churchill Downs, and international horses haven't done well in the Kentucky Derby lately. But if there's any horse that could keep Baffert from winning the Run for the Roses, it just may be international man of mystery.
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