2015 Kentucky Derby: Projecting Order of Finish and Payouts for Entire Field

The twists and turns leading up to the 141st running of the Kentucky Derby just keep coming.

Wednesday's post-position draw was supposed to cement the field and solidify the starting gate for each contender at Churchill Downs. Although, just one day later, Stanford—a 30-1 shot starting in gate No. 11—was withdrawn from the race by trainer Todd Pletcher, according to Kentucky.com.

Andy Lyons/Getty Images

Here's what Pletcher had to say about his decision during an interview with Jonathan Lintner of The Courier-Journal: "We felt like we were on the fence all along whether we were going to run run or not and decided to enter and get a look at the post position draw—see if any of the main contenders got a horrible draw and things like that."

In Stanford's absence, Frammento joins the field; however, he won't start from Stanford's No. 11 gate. Instead, he must start in the No. 20 gate, pushing all contenders from Gates 12-20 inside one spot. Interestingly enough, that moves favorite American Pharoah into the No. 17 gate—the only starting position that has never produced a Kentucky Derby winner.

Will that bad omen be the downfall of Pharoah, or will the colt make history from his dreaded gate? Let's go ahead and speculate on the race's finishing order and estimated prize-money payouts.

2015 Kentucky Derby Predictions and Payouts

Finish	Contender	Gate	Payout
1	Dortmund	8	$1.24 million
2	American Pharoah	17	$400,000
3	Firing Line	10	$200,000
4	Materiality	3	$100,000
5	Carpe Diem	2	$60,000
6	International Star	11	—
7	Mubtaahij	6	—
8	Itsaknockout	12	—
9	Frosted	14	—
10	Upstart	18	—
11	Keen Ice	13	—
12	Bolo	9	—
13	Danzig Moon	5	—
14	Ocho Ocho Ocho	1	—
15	Far Right	19	—
16	Tencendur	4	—
17	El Kabeir	7	—
18	Mr. Z	16	—
19	War Story	15	—
20	Frammento	20	—

Payout information courtesy of TheTripleCrown.com.

Prediction Analysis

Elsa/Getty Images

Dortmund is the predicted winner here, and it's not due to any kind of superstition stemming from Pharoah's starting location. The fact of the matter is that Dortmund's powerful style of running and favorable starting position make him a legitimate threat to don the garland of roses following the Derby.

Undefeated in six career starts, Dortmund has already trounced several other Derby contenders, most recently winning the Santa Anita Derby by a convincing 4 ¼ lengths. The colt was able to get out in front, set a solid pace and maintain enough stamina to finish strong, pulling away from the field down the final stretch for the wire-to-wire victory. Take a look:

Trainer Bob Baffert highlighted Dortmund's ability to start quickly during an interview with Darren Rogers of KentuckyDerby.com following the post-position draw: "He's a horse that gets going. He's quick. He'll be right there in the mix."

With Dortmund likely avoiding any major traffic early in the race, and settling into a position near the front of the pack, he should be able to rely on his powerful, long legs to gain the win just as he did at Santa Anita Park.

Rob Carr/Getty Images

That leaves Pharoah with the runner-up finish. This horse is extremely talented and may be the most graceful runner in this year's field. Although, starting in gate No. 17 won't give him many options early in the race, and he may be forced to settle into a position further back in the pack than he would like. That could be problematic, as Pharoah runs better in the front.

While Pharoah does have enough stamina and closing speed to surge to the front, he'll have a difficult time getting there in time after navigating through heavy traffic at Churchill Downs. Expect him to put forth a great effort but just come up short.

Firing Line is the pick to finish third. This may come as a slight surprise, but he has a great starting position in gate No. 10 that should allow him to utilize his good initial burst and move to the front. From there, his ability to sustain a quick pace throughout the race will ensure a solid finish.

Earlier this year, Firing Line finished second to Dortmund in the Robert B. Lewis stakes. He put on a great run, sticking with the favorite throughout the duration and lost in the end by just a head. Here's a look at the thrilling duel:

Since Firing Line is in position to see the front of the pack early—likely alongside Dortmund once again—it shouldn't come as a surprise when he finishes in a similar manner.

Materiality and Carpe Diem round out the horses that will see a payday. Both Pletcher-trained horses will be starting next to each other, as Carpe Diem is in gate No. 2 and Materiality will be in gate No. 3. There's a risk they could get pinned against the rail; however, both are great gate horses with the ability to get out of harm's way quickly.

Neither horse has the closing ability to keep up with Dortmund down the final stretch, but if they get out of trouble early in the race, they should be able to move up far enough to finish in the money.