Kentucky Derby 2015 Post Positions: Slot Info, Predictions for Finishing Order

The draw for the Kentucky Derby is crucial in determining a horse’s chances of success and the post positions for the 2015 race have thrown up some tough slots for the leading contenders.

American Pharoah is the favourite for the race, and he was initially drawn in post 18 before the scratching of Stanford, who was due to be in gate 11, saw half the field move inside a position.

Carpe Diem and Materiality have inside draws for trainer Todd Pletcher, and it is going to be a frantic rush to the first bend at Churchill Downs.

Here, we look at the effect the draw could have on the Kentucky Derby and the predicted finishing positions for the 20 runners:

Post	Horse	Jockey	Trainer	Morning-Line Odds	Predicted Finish
1	Ocho Ocho Ocho	Elvis Trujillo	Jim Cassiday	50/1	16th-20th
2	Carpe Diem	John Velazquez	Todd Pletcher	8/1	6th-10th
3	Materiality	Javier Castellano	Todd Pletcher	12/1	Top 5
4	Tencendur	Manny Franco	George Weaver	30/1	11th-15th
5	Danzig Moon	Julien Leparoux	Mark Casse	30/1	11th-15th
6	Mubtaahij	Christophe Soumillon	Mike de Kock	20/1	6th-10th
7	El Kabeir	Calvin Borel	John Terranova II	30/1	16th-20th
8	Dortmund	Martin Garcia	Bob Baffert	3/1	1st
9	Bolo	Rafael Bejarano	Carla Gaines	30/1	11th-15th
10	Firing Line	Gary Stevens	Simon Callaghan	12/1	Top 5
11	International Star	Miguel Mena	Mike Maker	20/1	6th-10th
12	Itsaknockout	Luis Saez	Todd Pletcher	30/1	6th-10th
13	Keen Ice	Kent Desormeaux	Dale Romans	50/1	16th-20th
14	Frosted	Joel Rosario	Kiaran McLaughlin	15/1	6th-10th
15	War Story	Joel Talamo	Tom Amoss	50/1	11th-15th
16	Mr. Z	Ramon Vazquez	D. Wayne Lukas	50/1	11th-15th
17	American Pharoah	Victor Espinoza	Bob Baffert	5/2	Top 5
18	Upstart	Jose Ortiz	Rick Violette Jr.	15/1	Top 5
19	Far Right	Mike Smith	Ron Moquett	30/1	16th-20th
20	Frammento	Corey Nakatani	Nick Zito	50/1	16th-20th

Odds accurate as of 2pm (BST) on May 1

There was certainly a sigh of relief from the connections of American Pharoah when he didn’t draw gate one. Since 1988, only Risen Star has come out of the inside gate and finished in the first three, per the San Jose Mercury News.

That’s the good news for American Pharoah. When he was initially given gate 18, there was the comfort of knowing that Gato Del Sol had won from that post in 1982, per Fox Sports. The bad news, though, is that no horse has ever won the Kentucky Derby from 17, which American Pharoah now finds himself in.

Garry Jones/Associated Press

Given American Pharoah is at his best when he front-runs, he is going to need to break smartly from that draw to ensure he isn’t trapped too far wide going into the first turn. He may have been impressive on his last start in the Arkansas Derby and was able to sit in second place, but he will find it much tougher to drop in from his position.

The draw hasn’t affected his price, but Andrew Beyer, per the Washington Post, doesn’t think American Pharoah merits his cramped odds in the betting. He writes: “He can certainly win the Derby, but he doesn’t deserve to be a short-priced favorite in a field of 20 in which he will have to cope with other high-quality speed horses for the first time.”

For a full betting preview of the Kentucky Derby, you can watch the video below:

Bob Baffert’s other runner Dortmund has fared much better in the draw after getting position eight. That allows Dortmund’s jockey Martin Garcia to choose how he wants to ride the horse without worrying too much about any early scrimmaging.

It’s the same for another leading contender Firing Line, who has twice been beaten by a head by Dortmund. In position 10, Firing Line has a good draw and has the vast experience of Gary Stevens in the saddle to make the most of it.

Charlie Riedel/Associated Press

Carpe Diem is in position two and Materiality in position three for Pletcher. Though there is the danger of his horses being squeezed up in the early battle for the lead, Pletcher isn’t feeling worried. He said, per Joe Drape of the New York Times: “This doesn’t change my confidence in the horses at all. You have to work out good trips from any post. It’s part of it. We’ll be fine.”

Ocho Ocho Ocho is a big outsider in the race and has landed the dreaded position one, which the leading horses all wanted to avoid. The South African raider Mubtaahij is coming from gate six and that will suit.

On the outside of the field, Upstart will be running from position 18 and that gives him an excellent chance of being able to find a position while avoiding any roughness.

Garry Jones/Associated Press

The draw for American Pharoah could certainly have been kinder, despite connections’ confidence that it won’t be too much of a hindrance. He is better to have been drawn wider than on the inside, but he will be under pressure for the early lead.

There has to be a concern that Carpe Diem and Materiality will be affected from those draws, and so the positions of Dortmund and Firing Line look ideal, along with that of Upstart.

Prediction: Dortmund to win