Kentucky Derby 2015: Final Vegas Betting Odds, Race Predictions and More
Twenty horse-and-jockey combinations will get to savour a unique opportunity in Louisville Saturday: the chance to triumph in the prestigious Kentucky Derby.
This longstanding event will be run for the 141st time in its distinguished history at Churchill Downs, with the respective competitors desperate to pick up the iconic wreath of roses and the $1.25 million prize for the winner at the end of 10 ferocious furlongs of racing.
Joe Kristufek of Churchill Downs and America's Best Racing spoke with Bleacher Report about his predictions and tips for the Derby.
.jpg?w=256 "Colts Jaguars Football")
On the cusp of this race getting underway, here’s how the bookmakers are viewing matters and a closer examination of which horses to keep an eye on in the big race.
| 1 | 2 | Ocho Ocho Ocho | Elvis Trujillo | Jim Cassidy | 25-1 |
| 2 | 3 | Carpe Diem | John Velazquez | Todd Pletcher | 8-1 |
| 3 | 4 | Materiality | Javier Castellano | Todd Pletcher | 16-1 |
| 4 | 5 | Tencendur | Manny Franco | George Weaver | 50-1 |
| 5 | 6 | Danzig Moon | Julien Leparoux | Mark Casse | 33-1 |
| 6 | 7 | Mubtaahij | Christophe Soumillon | Mike de Kock | 12-1 |
| 7 | El Kabeir | Calvin Borel | SCR | ||
| 8 | 8 | Dortmund | Martin Garcia | Bob Baffert | 18-5 |
| 9 | 9 | Bolo | Rafael Bejarano | Carla Gaines | 40-1 |
| 10 | 10 | Firing Line | Gary Stevens | Simon Callaghan | 12-1 |
| 11 | Stanford | Florent Geroux | SCR | ||
| 12 | International Star | Miguel Mena | SCR | ||
| 13 | 11 | Itsaknockout | Luis Saez | Todd Pletcher | 33-1 |
| 14 | 12 | Keen Ice | Kent Desormeaux | Dale Romans | 40-1 |
| 15 | 13 | Frosted | Joel Rosario | Kiaran McLaughlin | 16-1 |
| 16 | 14 | War Story | Joe Talamo | Tom Amoss | 50-1 |
| 17 | 15 | Mr. Z | Ramon Vazquez | D. Wayne Lukas | 50-1 |
| 18 | 16 | American Pharoah | Victor Espinoza | Bob Baffert | 13-5 |
| 19 | 17 | Upstart | Jose Ortiz | Rick Violette Jr. | 25-1 |
| 20 | 18 | Far Right | Mike Smith | Ron Moquett | 40-1 |
For full listings, check out the Odds Shark website. Odds accurate as of 5:45 p.m. (BST) on Saturday.
American Pharoah Leads a Quality Field
The depth of quality in this year’s race is simply astounding, but even among so many top-class three-year-olds, American Pharoah is the standout candidate.
Trained by the esteemed Bob Baffert and set to be ridden by 2014 winning jockey Victor Espinoza, all the pieces are in place for this marvellous horse to sample glory before the twin spires. Indeed, as noted here by horse racing expert Matt Dinerman, if he puts it all together on the day, second is the best the rest can hope for:
However, there are plenty of quality options ready to pounce should he struggle. Indeed, Baffert’s Dortmund is the second favourite and comes into this one with unbeaten pedigree. The Todd Pletcher pairing of Carpe Diem and Materiality will also fancy their chances of overcoming unfavourable draws and pushing to the front of the pack.
This race has a notoriety for upsetting the odds, however. As such, it’s certainly worth taking a look at some outsiders if you're keen on getting value for money from your punts. After all, as noted by John Ward, the executive director of the Kentucky Horse Racing Commission, a lot comes down to luck in this race, per Motez Bishara of CNN:
"You have to be the best horse on the first Saturday in May at 6:35 p.m.
It doesn't matter if you're the best horse in April or you're the best horse in July. And you don't get to call a timeout, or do anything like in other championship sports. It takes a good horse, it takes skill in preparing your horse, and it takes an awful lot of luck.
"
One intriguing prospect a little further down the betting is Simon Callaghan-trained Firing Line. As we can see here, he was close to getting the better of the well-fancied Dortmund in the Bob Lewis Stakes earlier in the year:
In Gary Stephens, the 12-1 shot will have an incomparably experienced jockey aboard too. The veteran has won a whopping nine Triple Crown races in his distinguished career, and with a draw of Post No. 10 for this race—a spot that has yielded more winners that any other—his Derby acumen will surely see him steer Firing Line to a decent finish.
Other value in the market could come from El Kabeir. While he’s not among the most fancied horses in the field, he’ll have three-time Derby winner Calvin Borel on board. According to Justin Zayat of Zayat Stables, he’s been in excellent fettle in the run up to this one:
Borel also knows what is required to steer an underdog to the front of the pack in this unique chase. Indeed, he was on board Mine That Bird for his Derby victory in 2009 that pulled off a staggering upset to win the race at odds of 50-1:
But this year, class will show through at Churchill Downs. American Pharoah has showcased superb form in preparation for this event, especially as he coasted to a serene victory in the Arkansas Derby at Oaklawn Park earlier this month. With a favourable post position of No. 18, expect him to romp to victory.
The battle for the minor places should be intriguing, with the indomitable Dortmund likely to be best of the rest. Expect Pletcher’s Materiality to utilise his blistering speed to keep in contention, ultimately holding off stable-mate Carpe Diem and Firing Lane to take third spot.
Prediction: 1. American Pharoah, 2. Dortmund, 3. Materiality
.jpg?w=480 "Colts Jaguars Football")
