Kentucky Derby 2015 Post Positions: Odds and Race Outlook for Entire Field

The 2015 running of the Kentucky Derby has the potential to crown a new horse racing superstar, with the first leg of the Triple Crown promising to be a race not to miss.

Bob Baffert has the leading two contenders at Churchill Downs in American Pharoah and Dortmund. Baffert will be hoping that one of those two horses can give him a fourth Kentucky Derby win.

Todd Pletcher also has two realistic chances of winning the race, with Carpe Diem and Materiality, while there is South African interest in the form of Mubtaahij.

Here, we take a look at the odds and the prospects of the 20 runners set to go to post in the Kentucky Derby:

Post	Horse	Jockey	Trainer	Morning-Line Odds	Prediction
1	Ocho Ocho Ocho	Elvis Trujillo	Jim Cassidy	50/1	16th-20th
2	Carpe Diem	John Velazquez	Todd Pletcher	8/1	Top 5
3	Materiality	Javier Castellano	Todd Pletcher	12/1	Top 5
4	Tencendur	Manny Franco	George Weaver	30/1	11th-15th
5	Danzig Moon	Julien Leparoux	Mark Casse	30/1	11th-15th
6	Mubtaahij	Christophe Soumillon	Mike de Kock	20/1	6th-10th
7	El Kabeir	Calvin Borel	John Terranova II	30/1	16th-20th
8	Dortmund	Martin Garcia	Bob Baffert	3/1	1st
9	Bolo	Rafael Bejarano	Carla Gaines	30/1	11th-15th
10	Firing Line	Gary Stevens	Simon Callaghan	12/1	Top 5
11	International Star	Miguel Mena	Mike Maker	20/1	6th-10th
12	Itsaknockout	Luis Saez	Todd Pletcher	30/1	6th-10th
13	Keen Ice	Kent Desormeaux	Dale Romans	50/1	11th-15th
14	Frosted	Joel Rosario	Kiaran McLaughlin	15/1	6th-10th
15	War Story	Joe Talamo	Tom Amoss	50/1	16th-20th
16	Mr. Z	Ramon Vazquez	D. Wayne Lukas	50/1	11th-20th
17	American Pharoah	Victor Espinoza	Bob Baffert	5/2	Top 5
18	Upstart	Jose Ortiz	Rick Violette Jr.	15/1	6th-10th
19	Far Right	Mike Smith	Ron Moquett	30/1	16th-20th
20	Frammento	Corey Nakatani	Nick Zito	50/1	16th-20th

Odds accurate as of 9 a.m. ET on May 1

American Pharoah is expected to go off as the favourite after a stunning eight-length win over Far Right in the Arkansas Derby. Since finishing fifth in his debut, American Pharoah has a four-race winning streak and is already a three-time Grade 1 winner.

The big concern for American Pharoah is the draw. He was initially drawn in post 18, but the defection of Stanford means he is now in post 17. No horse has won the Kentucky Derby from stall 17, per Fox Sports.

Prior to Stanford’s scratching, though, connections of American Pharoah weren’t concerned about being on the outside. Jockey Victor Espinoza, per Gary Mihoces of USA Today, said: “I definitely didn’t want to be the one horse, that’s for sure. I mean, I don’t think it matters, but just to be safe. I feel more comfortable to be on the outside.”

Uncredited/Associated Press

American Pharoah does like to lead, or sit close to the pace, so breaking smartly is going to be important to his chances. The horse’s owner, Ahmed Zayat, also runs Mr. Z and El Kabeir, but while they don’t lack for experience, they are short of the ability of American Pharoah.

Stablemate Dortmund is unbeaten in six starts and won the Santa Anita Derby. He has a favourable draw in post eight. He has twice beaten Firing Line by a head in his career and is by no means a second string from the Baffert yard.

Pletcher will now rely on three runners in the race after Stanford was scratched and replaced by Frammento. The trainer’s best chance appears to lie with Carpe Diem, whose only defeat came when second to Texas Red in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile. Carpe Diem has won his other four races and took the Grade 1 Blue Grass Stakes at Keeneland.

Carpe Diem has landed in post two, but at least he has avoided the fate of outsider Ocho Ocho Ocho in post one. As Beth Harris of The Associated Press writes, per U.S. News and World Report, “The rail is considered a serious disadvantage because the other 19 horses immediately begin angling toward the inside out of the gate, creating a potential traffic jam.”

Garry Jones/Associated Press

Pletcher’s Materiality, meanwhile, shouldn’t be dismissed after winning 3-of-3 this year. Still relatively inexperienced compared to some of the other runners, Materiality won the Florida Derby in his last start. Itsaknockout also hails from the Pletcher stable, but was beaten 21 lengths into fourth by Materiality last time.

Mubtaahij represents South African trainer Mike de Kock and has the assistance of Belgian jockey Christophe Soumillon in the plate. Mubtaahij ran twice in Britain last year before winning four times out in Dubai, including in the UAE Derby. He is a fascinating runner, but his overall level of form looks short of being good enough to win the Run for the Roses.

Firing Line was a 14-length winner of the Sunland Derby after previously suffering two narrow defeats at the hands of Dortmund. He doesn’t need to improve much to turn the tables and is a decent price.

Frosted stepped up a level to win the Grade 1 Wood Memorial last time, with Tencendur and El Kabeir behind, but he seems short of top class. International Star has won three on the bounce at Fair Grounds and has the measure of a couple of these in the field.

With the majority of other runners held on form, the only other horse that makes some appeal is Upstart. He beat Frosted in January before passing the post first, only to be placed second, in the Fountain of Youth Stakes. He was sent off as the favourite for the Florida Derby, but was beaten a length-and-a-half by Materiality.

You can check out a betting analysis of the Kentucky Derby in the video below:

American Pharoah is a worthy favourite given the level of form he has shown and he has last year’s winning jockey Espinoza in the saddle. But the draw’s history has to be of a concern and he can’t afford to be slow out of the gate, so it would be no surprise if he is headed by stablemate Dortmund.

Of the rest, Materiality is still unbeaten and so has to be considered, while the Gary Stevens-ridden Firing Line couldn’t have been more impressive last time.