Kentucky Derby 2015: Latest Odds and Predictions for Triple Crown Favourites
The opening leg of this year's Triple Crown will see American Pharoah look to defend his status as Kentucky Derby standout and claim a significant advantage in his attempt at 2015 domination.
However, some 19 other contenders will look to spoil the favourite's Saturday in their own bid to take the initiative ahead of the Preakness Stakes and Belmont Stakes later this year.
Bob Baffert is fortunate to be in a position where the Kentucky Derby's top two runners both fall under his stable, but only time will tell if those odds are quite good enough for Triple Crown victory.
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Following the announcement of Saturday's post positions, we take a look at the top three favourites for this year's Kentucky Derby in further detail.
| 1 | Ocho Ocho Ocho | Elvis Trujillo | Jim Cassidy | 25-1 | 50-1 |
| 2 | Carpe Diem | John Velazquez | Todd Pletcher | 17-2 | 8-1 |
| 3 | Materiality | Javier Castellano | Todd Pletcher | 16-1 | 12-1 |
| 4 | Tencendur | Manny Franco | George Weaver | 50-1 | 30-1 |
| 5 | Danzig Moon | Julien Leparoux | Mark Casse | 40-1 | 30-1 |
| 6 | Mubtaahij | Christophe Soumillion | Mike de Kock | 12-1 | 20-1 |
| 7 | El Kabeir | Calvin Borel | John Terranova II | 33-1 | 30-1 |
| 8 | Dortmund | Martin Garcia | Bob Baffert | 7-2 | 3-1 |
| 9 | Bolo | Rafael Bejarano | Carla Gaines | 40-1 | 30-1 |
| 10 | Firing Line | Gary Stevens | Simon Callaghan | 16-1 | 12-1 |
| 11 | International Star | Miguel Mena | Mike Maker | 22-1 | 20-1 |
| 12 | Itsaknockout | Luis Saez | Todd Pletcher | 33-1 | 30-1 |
| 13 | Keen Ice | Kent Desormeaux | Dale Romans | 50-1 | 50-1 |
| 14 | Frosted | Joel Rosario | Kiaran McLaughlin | 16-1 | 15-1 |
| 15 | War Story | Joe Talamo | Tom Amoss | 50-1 | 50-1 |
| 16 | Mr. Z | Ramon Vazquez | D. Wayne Lukas | 50-1 | 50-1 |
| 17 | American Pharoah | Victor Espinoza | Bob Baffert | 13-5 | 5-2 |
| 18 | Upstart | Jose Ortiz | Rick Violette Jr. | 22-1 | 15-1 |
| 19 | Far Right | Mike Smith | Ron Moquett | 40-1 | 30-1 |
| 20 | Frammento | Corey Nakatani | Nick Zito | N/A | N/A |
| American Pharoah | Bob Baffert | 10/1 |
| Dortmund | Bob Baffert | 20/1 |
| Carpe Diem | Todd Pletcher | 33/1 |
| Mubtaahij | Mike de Kock | 50/1 |
| Materiality | Todd Pletcher | 66/1 |
All odds come courtesy of OddsShark.com and are correct as of 9 a.m. ET on May 1.
American Pharoah
For some time now, all eyes have fallen on American Pharoah as the top-billed favourite for this year's Derby, owing to some majestic, winning performances in this year's Arkansas Derby and Rebel Stakes in particular.
However, a stroke of potential bad luck has befallen the colt, after it was announced on Thursday that Stanford's exit from the Derby sees Pharoah move to post 17, from which no horse has ever won the race, says WAVE TV's Kent Taylor:
Nevertheless, 2015 may be the year that drought ends, and USA Today even goes as far as to describe the outside post as a "favourable" placement, bad omens or not:
Owner Ahmed Zayat says he was "looking at a total athlete from day one" after American Pharoah was foaled, per Kellie Reilly of the official Kentucky Derby website.
At odds of 13-5, American Pharoah is a pitch above the rest for a reason and is well worthy of his headliner billing.
Prediction: First Place
Dortmund
The second of Baffert's Triple Crown contenders is just a short step down in the odds at 7-2 and will look to give his trainer a first Kentucky Derby victory in 13 years.
The striking thing about Dortmund is his resume coming into Saturday's contest, as depicted by Bleacher Report UK, which has included seeing off the threat of fellow Derby hopeful Firing Line twice in his last four races:
Dortmund has gradually eased into this racing distance and looked good value for money at 1.125 miles at the Santa Anita Derby earlier in April.
Despite American Pharoah's shorter odds, Tim Layden of Sports Illustrated is getting behind Dortmund this weekend, believing his stablemate favourite won't live up to the pressure:
Owner Kaleem Shah may have taken inspiration from the German City—or football club, to be exact—in naming Dortmund, but the horse is sired by an American dynasty in 2008 Kentucky Derby and Preakness champion Big Brown.
That legacy could also come to have a big influence on the outcome, with Dortmund bringing a winning influence at this track in his genes.
Prediction: Third Place
Carpe Diem
If ever there were an occasion to live up to one's own name, Saturday would be it for Carpe Diem, who is indeed very much looking to "seize the day" at Churchill Downs.
At 17-2, Todd Pletcher's highest hope of triumph isn't drawing as much attention as those shorter-odds candidates aforementioned, and a post position of No. 2 may not inspire confidence.
In a field of 20, there's some risk of Carpe Diem getting pinned to the rail unless he can emerge from the pack early on, although a long race could work in his favour as the son of Giant's Causeway, nicknamed "the Iron Horse" for a reason.
Carpe Diem does have a lot to live up to in reputation, too, as the most expensive horse in the field, per Derby News, purchased by Stonestreet Stables at auction last year for $1.6 million:
A heavy price tag doesn't always equate to success, however, especially in a free-for-all such as the Kentucky Derby.
A Grade I victory at the Blue Grass Stakes last month showed the colt can succeed at this sort of distance, but jockey John Velazquez has a difficult task in breaking ranks to take victory on Saturday.
Prediction: Back Field
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