Imagining the UFC Light Heavyweight Division Without Jon Jones
This is a story we didn’t think we’d need for another decade or so.
As of last Friday, Jon Jones’ place atop the UFC light heavyweight division seemed as secure as any in the MMA universe. Then came Sunday’s alleged hit-and-run accident, 48 hours of disastrous public outcry and the fight company’s decision to strip him of the title.
The end of this week finds Jones on forced, indefinite sabbatical from the weight class he dominated with extreme prejudice after winning the championship in 2011. His sudden absence will have considerable ripple effects—casting the division into chaos while affording almost everyone in it renewed life.
What will the UFC 205-pound division look like without Jones in it?
Things are about to get interesting...
And the New ...
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One thing we know for sure is that—barring injury or foreseen complications—Daniel Cormier will step in for Jones next month at UFC 187 and battle Anthony Johnson for the vacant title.
Once again, we’re reminded what a great luxury it is to be the UFC. This is a company so powerful and with such a robust roster that it can scratch a bout featuring the best pound-for-pound fighter on the planet and replace it with one that is almost as good.
Cormier-Johnson promises to be a heck of a scrap, and the winner walks away as the first and most unlikely light heavyweight champion since Jones defeated Shogun Rua way back at UFC 128. That’s the good news for these two combatants.
The bad news is, it’s going to be awfully tough for the public to accept either of them as the true titlist until he beats Jones. Depending on how long the old champion is out of action, we may not know exactly how to regard or what to expect from the new one.
If Jones returns fairly quickly—say, by the end of the year—then this business with Cormier and Johnson amounts to little more than a glorified No. 1 contender fight. If Jones’ absence persists longer than expected, or if he decides he doesn’t want to return at all, things could get stickier.
Both Cormier and Johnson are deserving, but coming to grips with either as rightful heirs to Jones’ throne could be a process.
Prediction: Cormier opened as the slight betting favorite when this bout was announced. Mostly likely scenario is, he beats Johnson via decision and then ends up re-matching Jones at the UFC’s traditionally big-selling end-of-the-year pay-per-view. Possibly even in New York City. Wouldn’t that be something?
Immediate Contenders.
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At least some things don’t change: Alexander Gustafsson figures to play an important role in the UFC title picture during 2015, regardless of who becomes the new champion. Gustafsson gave Jones a run for his money during their epic fight at UFC 165 and appeared headed for a rematch until Johnson unexpectedly knocked him out in January.
If anybody besides Jones is going to challenge the Cormier-Johnson winner before the end of the year, it’s probably going to be Gustafsson. To remain in that pole position, however, he’s going to have to take care of business against Glover Teixeira at UFC Fight Night 69 in June.
Oddly enough, Ryan Bader may also have a decent claim to No. 1-contender status. Bader was scheduled to fight Cormier at UFN 68 before Jones’ career self-destructed. With a four-fight win-streak and career losses only to Jones, Tito Ortiz, Lyoto Machida and Teixeira, a new, wide-open division might end up behooving a guy like Bader most of all.
Prediction: Gustafsson cruises past Teixeira, but again has to wait for his title shot until after Jones returns. Hey, in the interim, maybe Gustafsson and Bader end up fighting each other. Eh?
Resurgent Veterans?
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It seemed silly at first to have a lawyered-up Quinton “Rampage” Jackson back in the UFC, while Bellator MMA was still pursuing legal action against him. With Jones now out, however, it kind of feels like the light heavyweight class needs all the help it can get.
Granted, Jackson is 36 years old and not the same fighter he was when he knocked out Chuck Liddell to claim the 205-pound title in 2007. Still, it might be handy to have him around.
Provided Jackson is interested enough to make weight and allowed to fight again in the Octagon—still not a given—he could suit up for some fun senior-tour fights against guys like Shogun Rua, Antonio Rogerio Nogueira or even his old pal Rashad Evans.
Evans figures to return to a vastly different light heavyweight landscape, if he can make it back to action by the end of the year. A veteran of high-profile feuds with both Jackson and Jones, he’s been out almost 18 months owing to multiple knee surgeries. If he can get healthy and nab a win or two against decent competition, he could see his stock in a relatively shallow division suddenly soar once again.
Prediction: Both Jackson and Evans as relevant parts of the light heavyweight division by this time next year? It seems crazy, but it could happen.
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The New-Ish Blood
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After you get over the initial shock of no longer seeing Jones atop the UFC’s official light heavyweight rankings, a second, more familiar feeling about the 205-pound roster takes hold.
This division is old.
And shallow.
Perhaps with the boy king now on the shelf, however, the UFC will—by necessity—have to start looking around for something resembling younger talent. At present, 32-year-old Ovince St. Preux likely still leads anything resembling a prospect class in this division. His first-round knockout of Patrick Cummins in April makes him 6-1 in the UFC and likely headed for bigger things.
Don’t forget either about guys like Nikita Krylov (23), Corey Anderson (25) and Gian Villante (29). Unless a youth movement suddenly shows up out of the blue, that’s probably about as good as it gets for UFC light heavies under the age of 30.
Prediction: You get the feeling each of the above guys has a ceiling and may not exactly be championship level. Probably time to send UFC matchmaker Joe Silva somewhere on a light heavyweight scouting mission. And by somewhere, I mean Russia.
Moving Pieces.
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It’s worth mentioning that Cormier came to 205 pounds from heavyweight, where he’d also been a top contender. Another longtime fixture there, Brendan Schaub, has also announced his intent to shed the pounds and remake himself as a light heavyweight during 2015.
It’s possible with Jones out of the way, immigrating to the light heavyweight division could become a mini-trend. Smallish heavyweights and big middleweights could both look to decamp from their traditional homes and seek new fortunes at 205.
Who wouldn’t want to see mid-sized heavies like Stipe Miocic, Shawn Jordan or even Junior dos Santos try to lose a little weight and make the limit? Who wouldn’t be glad to see Lyoto Machida come back from 185, especially if he could drag somebody like Vitor Belfort or Dan Henderson with him.
And then there’s the Holy Grail: Anderson Silva.
During his long tenure as middleweight champion, Silva made infrequent but impressive forays to light heavyweight. He and Jones were never truly interested in putting together a superfight, but with Jones out of the way...maybe?
Prediction: Changing weight classes seldom proves to be the cure-all elixir that fighters want it to be. I doubt a guy like Schaub fares much better in the lighter division than he did at heavy. Anderson Silva, though. Now that’s something to think about.
The Odd Man Out.
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You know who might suddenly be having second thoughts about his recent change of address?
Phil Davis.
When he left the UFC for Bellator on April 15, Davis couldn’t have known that less than two weeks later, Jones would run that red light and run himself right out of the Octagon too. It feels a little bit like piling on to even write this, but a UFC light heavyweight division without Jon Jones in it? That might well have been Davis’ oyster.
Davis probably wasn’t going to be UFC champion anyway, as recent losses to Bader and Johnson could attest. But his overall potential was always measured against the greatness of Jones. Early on in his UFC career, it seemed as though the former Penn State wrestler could develop into the person to finally give the unbeatable champion a competitive fight.
That obviously never happened, but without Jones around to cast his enormous shadow, perhaps Davis finally could’ve made a real run at contendership. Now we’ll never know.
Prediction: Don’t sweat it. Before 2016 dawns, Davis will win the Bellator title and continue to roll around on a bed covered with Affliction sponsorship money. Somehow, I think he’s going to be all right.
The Return of the King.
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Obviously, the biggest wild card in all of this is still Jones. The duration of his absence from the Octagon will pretty much single-handedly shape the kind of division we have moving forward.
We already know Jones thinks he can fix his personal issues at record speed. This time, though, the UFC is dictating the terms of his suspension. This time, the fight company will decide when Jones is ready to return.
One of the problems compounding the situation is that we’re not sure exactly what sort of problems Jones has. Is it drinking? Is it drugs? Is it simply driving too fast? Eventually, we’re probably going to have to get some answers about that.
As much as it seems like the UFC has washed its hands of Jones for now, eventually it will have to make a judgment call about whether he’s conquered his demons and is well enough to return.
Here’s hoping that decision has more to do with Jones the human being than Jones the fighter and particularly what he can do for the UFC.
Prediction: I have no idea whether Jones can actually shed his personal baggage, but all the anecdotal evidence points to him being capable of anything he sets his mind to. Either way, I bet he’s back in the UFC by the end of the year, probably for that big-money rematch with Cormier.
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