Kentucky Derby 2015: Updated Predictions, Betting Lines and Post Time

Before the post-position draw, the only way we could size up 2015 Kentucky Derby contenders was by previous performances and pre-Derby workouts. Now, with the starting gate for each horse known, projecting the finishing order takes on a new twist.

After all, we can take a historical look into the success from each gate to determine if the draw increased or decreased a certain contender's chances of winning. For example, while gate No. 1 has produced eight winners, no horse has won from the position since Ferdinand in 1986 due to the strong possibility of getting pinned against the rail in such a large race.

So, taking all of the available information into consideration, which contender is likeliest to don the garland of roses upon the Kentucky Derby's completion? Before we propose an answer to that question, let's take a look at the race's updated starting positions, betting lines, post time and viewing information.

Odds and Post Positions

Gate	Contender	Odds
18	American Pharoah	11-4
8	Dortmund	13-4
2	Carpe Diem	9-1
3	Materiality	14-1
6	Mubtaahij	14-1
10	Firing Line	16-1
15	Frosted	16-1
12	International Star	20-1
19	Upstart	22-1
7	El Kabeir	33-1
9	Bolo	33-1
13	Itsaknockout	33-1
20	Far Right	33-1
11	Stanford	40-1
17	Mr. Z	40-1
1	Ocho Ocho Ocho	50-1
4	Tencendur	50-1
5	Danzig Moon	50-1
14	Keen Ice	50-1
16	War Story	50-1

All race odds courtesy of Odds Shark.

2015 Kentucky Derby Viewing Info

Date: Saturday, May 2

Where: Churchill Downs in Louisville, Kentucky

TV Time: 4-7:30 p.m. ET

Post Time: 6:24 p.m. ET

Channel: NBC

Live Stream: NBC Sports Live Extra

Updated Race Predictions

Finish	Horse	Gate	Odds
Win	Dortmund	8	13-4
Place	American Pharoah	18	11-4
Show	Firing Line	10	16-1
Fourth	Materiality	3	14-1

Following a favorable draw, Dortmund takes the Kentucky Derby.

An extremely fast horse with long legs and a powerful gallop, Dortmund will have the opportunity to put himself in great position near the front of the pack early coming out of the No. 8 gate. Once he settles in, his long strides will allow him to keep up a solid pace while salvaging his stamina for a late-race push to the front.

That was the exact scenario that played out during his 4 ¼-length victory in the Santa Anita Derby earlier this year. Here's a look at the race in its entirety:

Trainer Bob Baffert was exuding confidence in Dortmund following the draw. Here's what he had to say during an interview with Darren Rogers of KentuckyDerby.com, "He's a horse that gets going. He's quick. He'll be right there in the mix."

American Pharoah, the Derby favorite, falls to second place here. While the smooth-striding horse is the most graceful runner in the field, and possesses a great deal of finishing speed, he's tasked with starting out wide in the No. 18 gate—a starting position that has yielded only one previous winner (Gato Del Sol in 1982).

During the Arkansas Derby, American Pharoah displayed his ability to push to the front of the pack and kick into a higher gear than any other contender, eventually winning by an astounding eight lengths. Here's a look:

He'll need every ounce of that ability to overtake Dortmund in the Derby after starting far outside. Here's what Baffert had to say about the position, per Rogers, "It's OK. It's good. Anything but being down there. We talked about being on the outside. I feel like 20 would have been great for me. Out there at least you have a little bit of an option. He's fast. American Pharoah is fast."

Firing Line could be a bit of a sleeper in the Derby. He's been running very well of late and was able to keep up with Dortmund in the Robert B. Lewis Stakes earlier this year, losing by a head. Starting in the No. 10 post—a position that has produced a Derby-high nine winners—helps a great deal.

Here's what trainer Simon Callaghan had to say about the colt's starting position, per Rogers, "I'm very happy with the draw. I believe we're last to load, which is an advantage. And with the No. 10, you've got options."

Rounding out the top four is Materiality. The Todd Pletcher-trained horse drew the No. 3 gate, which hasn't produced a winner since Real Quiet in 1998. However, this colt has the ability to get out of the gate quickly, limiting the chances he gets pinned inside.

When speaking with Rogers, Pletcher briefly shared his thoughts on Materiality after the draw: "Materiality is a good gate horse, too, so if he gets out he ought to be fine."

The way the draw shook out, we shouldn't be expecting any horse to run away with the Derby this year. A likely scenario is Dortmund holding the lead just enough to fend off the surging American Pharoah, who passes Firing Line and Materiality just before the finish line.

All historical race information courtesy of KentuckyDerby.com.