Kentucky Derby 2015 Post Positions: Horses, Jockeys with Best, Worst Race Odds

The post positions for the 2015 Kentucky Derby were set Wednesday. Favorite American Pharoah drew an outside post, and third-choice Carpe Diem drew an inside post, but none of the slotting radically changed the outlook for this year's Run for the Roses.

One thing definitely remains true: This is an extremely strong field of three-year-old horses. While that doesn't necessarily mean fans should expect a long shot to end up in the winner's circle, it should lead to a competitive, highly intriguing first leg of the Triple Crown.

Let's check out how the horses will line up Saturday at Churchill Downs. The race will be broadcast on NBC with a projected start time of 6:24 p.m. ET. The field listing is followed by a breakdown of the value on the board.

2015 Kentucky Derby Field

Post	Horse	Jockey	Odds
1	Ocho Ocho Ocho	Elvis Trujillo	50-1
2	Carpe Diem	John Velazquez	9-1
3	Materiality	Javier Castellano	14-1
4	Tencendur	Manny Franco	50-1
5	Danzig Moon	Julien Leparoux	50-1
6	Mubtaahij	Christophe Soumillon	14-1
7	El Kabeir	Calvin Borel	33-1
8	Dortmund	Martin Garcia	13-4
9	Bolo	Rafael Bejarano	33-1
10	Firing Line	Gary Stevens	16-1
11	Stanford	Florent Geroux	40-1
12	International Star	Miguel Mena	20-1
13	Itsaknockout	Luis Saez	33-1
14	Keen Ice	Kent Desormeaux	50-1
15	Frosted	Joel Rosario	16-1
16	War Story	Joe Talamo	50-1
17	Mr. Z	Ramon Vazquez	40-1
18	American Pharoah	Victor Espinoza	11-4
19	Upstart	Jose Ortiz	22-1
20	Far Right	Mike Smith	33-1

Analyzing The Odds

Even as the lines begin to shift on Odds Shark, American Pharoah remains the rightful favorite despite getting drawn into the No. 18 post. It's not an ideal starting spot, but it should give jockey Victor Espinoza, who won this race on California Chrome last year, a chance to analyze the field and decide what to do.

In a perfect world, American Pharoah would be able to fade toward the rail quickly, perhaps sitting around fifth heading into the backstretch. That would put him in position to make a charge around the final turn, much like he did in the Arkansas Derby.

Tim Layden of Sports Illustrated passed along comments from Espinoza. He was just happy to avoid the extreme inside gate:

American Pharoah is followed by Dortmund and Carpe Diem in the odds. Both are accomplished horses and definite contenders—not the greatest value, though. That's especially true for Carpe Diem because the No. 2 post makes his journey far more difficult.

Value-wise, it's hard to look past Frosted. You're always looking for horses peaking at the right time. His run in the Wood Memorial was outstanding. He accelerated down the stretch to race past fellow Derby horse Tencendur before easing across the finish line for the victory.

Evan Hammonds of Blood-Horse notes the horse is starting to generate some buzz:

Hopefully that interest doesn't drive his odds down too far and take his value away before the race.

On the flip side, it's hard to like Upstart's value with middling odds. Although he's finished inside the top three in all seven career starts, he's won just once in the past five as the level of competition has risen. It will be even tougher Saturday.

Pete Denk of THT Bloodstock noted along with the lack of victories, his preparations were also disrupted by an illness:

His track record suggests he might be worth using in some exotic wagers. Expecting him to win given the overall strength of this field is a stretch, though. The value just isn't there.

American Pharoah is the horse to beat, as the odds suggest. Things become more interesting if he has a lackluster showing Saturday, opening the door for the next wave of contenders. Based on upside, Frosted makes for a solid selection.

Best Value: Frosted (Joel Rosario), 16-1

Worst Value: Upstart (Jose Ortiz), 22-1