Kentucky Derby 2015 Odds: Top Picks, Updated Vegas Lines for 141st Race

A clutch of 20 horses and jockeys will have the opportunity to etch their names into the annals of racing history this weekend, as the 141st running of the Kentucky Derby will take place at Churchill Downs.

For those involved in the American racing stratosphere, it doesn't get much better than a win in the big race under the twin spires. The 10-furlong course may not be a test of endurance, but the ability to make snap decisions in the heat of battle can often make a massive difference in this notoriously unpredictable race.

Joe Kristufek of America's Best Racing gave his opinion on the event to Bleacher Report:

With the race just days away, here are the odds for all 20 runners to cross the line first and a closer look at the main contenders for glory in the 2015 Run for the Roses.

Post	Horse	Jockey	Trainer	Odds
1	Ocho Ocho Ocho	Elvis Trujillo	Jim Cassidy	50-1
2	Carpe Diem	John Velazquez	Todd Pletcher	9-1
3	Materiality	Javier Castellano	Todd Pletcher	14-1
4	Tencendur	Manny Franco	George Weaver	50-1
5	Danzig Moon	Julien Leparoux	Mark Casse	50-1
6	Mubtaahij	Christophe Soumillion	Mike de Kock	14-1
7	El Kabeir	Calvin Borel	John Terranova II	33-1
8	Dortmund	Martin Garcia	Bob Baffert	13-4
9	Bolo	Rafael Bejarano	Carla Gaines	33-1
10	Firing Line	Gary Stevens	Simon Callaghan	16-1
11	Stanford	Florent Geroux	Todd Pletcher	40-1
12	International Star	Miguel Mena	Mike Maker	20-1
13	Itsaknockout	Luis Saez	Todd Pletcher	33-1
14	Keen Ice	Kent Desormeaux	Dale Romans	50-1
15	Frosted	Joel Rosario	Kiaran McLaughlin	16-1
16	War Story	Joe Talamo	Tom Amoss	50-1
17	Mr. Z	Ramon Vazquez	D. Wayne Lukas	40-1
18	American Pharoah	Victor Espinoza	Bob Baffert	11-4
19	Upstart	Jose Ortiz	Rick Violette Jr.	22-1
20	Far Right	Mike Smith	Ron Moquett	33-1

For full listings, check out the Odds Shark website. Odds accurate as of 10:30 a.m. (BST), April 30.

American Pharoah the Big Favourite

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In races like the Derby, a small margin can make a big difference in determining the eventual winner. For American Pharoah, having jockey Victor Espinoza on board will give him the edge as he bids to take the first leg of a coveted Triple Crown.

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Espinoza was superb aboard California Chrome in this race 12 months ago, steering to the finish line with serene composure. It was his second win in the Kentucky showpiece, and a third this weekend would put him among an elite group of men to have sampled a trio of titles in the big one at Churchill Downs.

He admitted he feels confident about his chances:

But there's a class field in situ. The biggest challenge to American Pharoah will come from Dortmund, who, like the favourite, is trained by Bob Baffert. Having won all six of his races to date, the colt is a worthy second place in the betting and gave an exceptional measure of his pedigree with a classy performance in the Santa Anita Derby.

Horse racing journalist Scott Utterback is picking the undefeated three-year-old to romp to victory:

It's tough to see past a battle between these two Baffert-trained sensations. Todd Pletcher has a couple of fine horses in the race in Materiality and Carpe Diem, but they'll be hampered in their endeavours after picking up the third and second post positions, respectively.

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As noted by Mike Watchmaker of Daily Racing Form, the illustrious trainer—who has won only once in this race despite fielding 40 runners—will be desperately disappointed to see his two best hopes pinned on the inside:

With both Carpe Diem and Materiality striving to overcome the flurry of horses coming across to box them in, that paves the way for Dortmund and American Pharoah—starting in the eighth and 18th post positions, respectively—to get much cleaner runs around the 10-furlong circuit. As such, expect those two to be battling it out as the finishing post creeps into view.

American Pharoah will have enough to stave off a stiff challenge from his stablemate, however. He and Espinoza worked wonderfully to win the Arkansas Derby in preparation for this prestigious race. Expect the experienced hand of the jockey to keep the favourite out of trouble early on before moving through the gears in the latter stages.

Prediction: 1. American Pharoah, 2. Dortmund, 3. Materiality