Kentucky Derby 2015 Post Positions: Field Info, Horses Odds and Predictions

One of the most enamouring traits of the Kentucky Derby is the race’s propensity for conjuring shock results. A quick glance over this year’s line-up, and the amount of class shines through.

There will be 20 horse and jockey combinations looking to sample glory in the 2015 edition of the Run for the Roses, with the Bob Baffert-trained pairing of American Pharoah and Dortmund leading the betting for the showpiece occasion at Churchill Downs in Louisville, Kentucky. But there’s a precarious balance between success and failure over the ferocious 10-furlong distance.

Joe Kristufek of America's Best Racing gave his assessment on the race to Bleacher Report:

Here are the post positions drawn for Saturday’s big race and a closer look at the field in general ahead of the event’s 141st running.

Post	Horse	Jockey	Trainer	Odds
1	Ocho Ocho Ocho	Elvis Trujillo	Jim Cassidy	50-1
2	Carpe Diem	John Velazquez	Todd Pletcher	9-1
3	Materiality	Javier Castellano	Todd Pletcher	14-1
4	Tencendur	Manny Franco	George Weaver	50-1
5	Danzig Moon	Julien Leparoux	Mark Casse	50-1
6	Mubtaahij	Christophe Soumillon	Mike de Kock	14-1
7	El Kabeir	Calvin Borel	John Terranova II	33-1
8	Dortmund	Martin Garcia	Bob Baffert	13-4
9	Bolo	Rafael Bejarano	Carla Gaines	33-1
10	Firing Line	Gary Stevens	Simon Callaghan	16-1
11	Stanford	Florent Geroux	Todd Pletcher	40-1
12	International Star	Miguel Mena	Mike Maker	20-1
13	Itsaknockout	Luis Saez	Todd Pletcher	33-1
14	Keen Ice	Kent Desormeaux	Dale Romans	50-1
15	Frosted	Joel Rosario	Kiaran McLaughlin	16-1
16	War Story	Joe Talamo	Tom Amoss	50-1
17	Mr. Z	Ramon Vazquez	D. Wayne Lukas	40-1
18	American Pharoah	Victor Espinoza	Bob Baffert	11-4
19	Upstart	Jose Ortiz	Rick Violette Jr.	22-1
20	Far Right	Mike Smith	Ron Moquett	33-1

For a full odds listing, check out the Odds Shark website. Figure accurate as of 7:45 a.m. (BST), April 30.

Class Will Tell In Kentucky

Andy Lyons/Getty Images

Everyone loves to see an outsider triumph over adversity to win a coveted prize and while the Derby’s reputation for springing shocks is well-established, this year it would be a big surprise to see anyone outside the favourites cross the line first.

As noted by Pat Forde of Yahoo, there’s been a clear distinction in the betting between the top three and the rest:

Indeed, while there looks to be a chasm in quality between the front-runners to the chasing pack, it’s merely testament to the talent of those leading the betting. In American Pharoah, this year’s race has a pretty intimidating favourite too.

Rob Carr/Getty Images

His chances were enhanced further by a favourable draw of post 18, one that his owner Ahmed Zayat was delighted with, per Tim Wilkin of the (Albany) Times Union:

The colt has been in exceptional form coming into this one, with easy victories in the Rebel Stakes and the Grade 1 Arkansas Derby at Oaklawn Park. Aboard him will be a fine jockey, as Victor Espinoza bids to take glory in this race for the second successive year after winning on California Chrome 12 months ago.

Rob Carr/Getty Images

It’s quite the combination for Baffert, but American Pharoah’s biggest challenger is poised to come from his own stable, in the form of the undefeated Dortmund. He’s been drawn in post 8 for this one, and it’s proven to be one of the more favourable spots at the start in years gone by; the last winner from there was Mine That Bird in 2009.

Jeannine Edwards of ESPN thinks that spot could help Dortmund, while American Pharoah’s position further down the line could be a potential hindrance:

While the Baffert-trained pairing are getting a lot of attention in the buildup to the race, one to look out for is definitely the third-favourite, Carpe Diem. The colt is part of the Todd Pletcher stable and was superb in winning the Grade 1 Blue Grass Stakes earlier this month.

As we can see here, it was a pretty impressive performance:

He may just have it in him to reel in the likes of American Pharoah in the latter stages, but history dictates we will not see Carpe Diem triumph here. Indeed, as noted by Doug Salvatore of the Erie Times-News, Pletcher has an atrocious record in the distance events at Churchill Downs:

This one is going to come down to a straight tussle between Dortmund and American Pharoah. The former is a physically imposing specimen and has the power to surge to the front early on, make the running and leave the majority of the field in the dust. But his stablemate has shown the requisite class to suggest he can cling on in there.

As such, expect American Pharoah to bide his time and pick his run to the finish with composure under the astute control of Espinoza. It’s going to be a magnificent day for Baffert, but an especially prosperous one for the pre-race favourite.

Prediction: American Pharoah