Kentucky Derby 2015 Post Positions: Predictions for Each Horse in the Lineup

The post positions and odds are in for each horse set to run in the 141st Kentucky Derby on Saturday. The 20-horse field is filled with intriguing horses, some that could surprise.

At 11-4 odds, Bob Baffert's American Pharoah is considered the favorite, per Odds Shark. He drew the 18th post position, so we'll see if he enjoys running near the outer edge of the field. Baffert seemed pleased with the horse's starting spot, per D'Arcy Egan of The Plain Dealer:

"I just didn't want (American Pharoah) to be stuck on the inside. But he breaks well and we'll have to be aggressive with him." Unfortunately, that wasn't the case for all of Baffert's top contending horses.

Here's a look at the post positions for every horse in the field, as well as the predicted order of finish.

Post	Horse	Jockey	Predicted Finish
1	Ocho Ocho Ocho	Elvis Trujillo	20
2	Carpe Diem	John Velazquez	4
3	Materiality	Javier Castellano	5
4	Tencendur	Manny Franco	14
5	Danzig Moon	Julien Leparoux	15
6	Mubtaahij	Christophe Soumillon	8
7	El Kabeir	Calvin Borel	9
8	Dortmund	Martin Garcia	3
9	Bolo	Rafael Bejarano	10
10	Firing Line	Gary Stevens	6
11	Stanford	Florent Geroux	12
12	International Star	Miguel Mena	11
13	Itsaknockout	Luis Saez	13
14	Keen Ice	Kent Desormeaux	19
15	Frosted	Joel Rosario	7
16	War Story	Joe Talamo	17
17	Mr. Z	Ramon Vazquez	18
18	American Pharoah	Victor Espinoza	1
19	Upstart	Jose Ortiz	2
20	Far Right	Mike Smith	16

American Pharoah

Garry Jones/Associated Press

On April 11, American Pharoah won the Arkansas Derby. It was his fourth straight win, and he did it from a position that is somewhat similar to where he'll start at the Kentucky Derby. While the Arkansas Derby field had only eight horses total and the Kentucky Derby has 20, American Pharoah will again be third from the edge.

The actual post position may not matter much for this horse. If you look back at his post positions during his win streak, he's been able to win from just about everywhere—except far inside. He's yet to draw a spot between one and three.

That's part of the reason why he still has to be considered the odds-on favorite to win on Saturday.

Dortmund

Garry Jones/Associated Press

Baffert's other major threat didn't get any breaks with its draw. Dortmund will be almost smack-dab in the middle of the pile. It'll be interesting to see whether the horse gets caught up in the early commotion of the race and falls out of contention early.

At the Santa Anita Derby, Dortmund overcame the rail position to streak to victory, setting up the showdown with American Pharoah at Churchill Downs. Last year, California Chrome's awesome journey to two-thirds of the Triple Crown gained significant steam with a win at Santa Anita.

Could Dortmund be on the same path? I believe he'll show well, but the middle post position will be too much to overcome.

Upstart

Garry Jones/Associated Press

The 19th post position is a perfect place for Upstart in the Derby. It's far enough on the outside where the horse won't get impeded or discouraged by the traffic, but it's close enough to one of the top competitors to be motivated to run a fast pace.

Upstart has had success in races against other strong horses. He finished second at the Grade 1 Florida Derby and second at the Grade 2 Fountain of Youth. I'm not sure this horse really knows how to actually win a big race, but finishing in the money is something he has done consistently.